.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
Why Ohio State is a lock to make the playoff (and why Michigan might join them there)
Kirby Hocutt told us everything we needed to know Tuesday night after the latest College Football Playoff rankings were announced.
There were questions about how the committee would handle the logjam in the Big Ten — a conference that has four of the nation's top seven teams, per the committee.
And more specifically, how would the committee handle the conundrum of Ohio State, which has one loss, is coming off a win over No. 3 Michigan, but isn't playing for the Big Ten title, versus the team that beat them and is playing for that title, Penn State?
The rankings told the same thing as last week — Ohio State came in at No. 2 with Penn State at No. 7.
It was Hocutt, the selection committee chairman, who provided the clarity — whether he wanted to or not.
Hocutt said Tuesday that, despite Penn State beating Ohio State head-to-head, the gap between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions is "not close."
And according to Hocutt, conference championships and head-to-head victories only matter when the margins between teams are "razor-thin."
A win over Wisconsin — the No. 6 team in the rankings — might bring Penn State and Ohio State closer in the final rankings next Sunday, but there's no plausible way the Nittany Lions' could make the margin between them and Ohio State — which is idle and therefore can do nothing to hurt its own cause — "razor-thin," which would make their win over Ohio State and Big Ten championship a factor.
This to say that Penn State isn't going to take Ohio State's spot in the playoff.
And if they can't do it, no one will.
That's because no one else on the outside of the football field can make the case that they're better than Ohio State, and that's huge.
The committee's methodology, as stated by Hocutt Tuesday, is to pick the "very best teams."
Ohio State can do nothing to disqualify themselves as one of the nation's "very best teams" on Saturday.
This isn't to say that Penn State or Wisconsin — whoever wins the Big Ten championship game — can't get into the playoff field.
That said, it'll be tough.
This is not like in 2014, when TCU dropped from No. 3 to out of the playoffs in the final rankings. The committee has established clear-cut gaps between teams this year, and they go beyond four vs. the field.
Alabama is No. 1. They're in the playoff regardless of what happens on Saturday in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
Then there's a gap.
Ohio State is No. 2. They're in because they have three Top-10 wins — Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Michigan — and their only loss is to No. 7 Penn State. They grade out as one of the top teams in almost all metrics, and they can't do anything to undercut their own candidacy this weekend. They're in.
Then there's a gap.
Clemson is at No. 3. Beat Virginia Tech and they're in. Lose and they're out. It's simple.
Then there's a gap.
Hocutt said Tuesday that Washington and Michigan are close in the standings, but for now, Washington is 4 and Michigan is 5. They represent their own traunch.
Should Washington lose to Colorado Friday in the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Huskies are out — obviously — but it might be Michigan, not the Big Ten or Pac-12 champion, who is in.
That's because there's a gap between Michigan and No. 6 Wisconsin, No. 7 Penn State, and No. 8 Colorado — three teams that have two losses and have all lost to the Wolverines this year.
Will the margin between the Big Ten champion and the Pac-12 champion be "razor-thin" on Sunday? Perhaps, and if it is, then it's up to the members of the committee to individually determine what is more important — a head-to-head win or conference championship. There's no guideline for that. Whichever option is selected most will determine the No. 4 team.
(If Clemson loses too, then we have to determine if three Big Ten teams should make the playoff, but let's cross that bridge if that happens.)
So when you consider that the Big Ten champion or Pac-12 champion might not even jump No. 5 Michigan, should a spot in the Final Four open, it's impossible to see how they would somehow find a way to leapfrog No. 2 Ohio State.
Whether you agree with it or not, the Buckeyes are going to play for the title. The only thing left to decide is if they'll be joined by another Big Ten team.
