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Alabama only slipped to No. 3.
The top question on everyone's mind before the "Game of the Century" was whether or not No. 1 LSU and then-No. 2 Alabama would play a rematch in the BCS championship game. With the game going to OT before being settled, that question will be asked throughout the rest of this season. And as the latest BCS standings show, we may be only two games away from more Crimson Tide vs. Tigers.
It’s finding those games that will be the trick. None of the rematch talk will matter if Oklahoma State finishes the drill and goes 12-0, or if No. 4 Stanford beats No. 7 Oregon this weekend and goes on to win the Pac-12 title game to go 13-0 (which almost certainly would move the Cardinal ahead of Alabama).
Now, should both the Cowboys and Cardinal stumble, the standings will get very interesting. While ’Bama currently sits at No. 3, No. 6 Oklahoma will quickly move up in the human polls if the big wins keep coming. If a 10-1 Sooners team takes down an 11-0 Oklahoma State team on Dec. 3 — in a game that’ll certainly get its share of hype — that could be enough for Oklahoma to become the highest of the one-loss teams. If these scenarios play out, then the final standings likely will see a battle between Oklahoma, Alabama and Oregon (assuming the Ducks beat Stanford and then run the table) for the coveted No. 2 spot. The computers love the Big 12 and almost certainly will give Oklahoma the needed bump to get to No. 2. And all of this rides one other very large assumption:
That LSU finishes the regular season unbeaten.
There’s still work to do for the Tigers. The home date with Arkansas at the end of the regular season won’t be a layup, and winning the SEC championship isn’t a foregone conclusion if it’s against a tough Georgia defense and the league’s best passer, Aaron Murray. But for the moment, LSU appears to be far better than everyone but Alabama, so assuming there isn't a Tigers choke over the next month, this is how the rest of the season should play out:
• If Oklahoma State loses and Stanford goes 13-0, the Cardinal will play for the national title. Already No. 2 in the coaches' poll, an unbeaten Stanford will go from No. 3 in the Harris Poll to No. 2 if OSU loses.
• If both the Cowboys and Cardinal win out, higher-ranked Oklahoma State will be impossible to leapfrog and will play in the title game ahead of Stanford.
• If both OSU and Stanford lose, then it'll be an argument between one-loss teams and a possibly unbeaten Boise State. The most likely pecking order would be Oklahoma, Alabama, Oregon and Boise State.
A FEW KEY NOTES FROM THE LATEST STANDINGS
• Arkansas and Oregon flip-flopped. The Hogs were No. 7 last week and Oregon No. 8, but it doesn't matter too much. If Arkansas wins out, including a victory over LSU, it'll finish in the top five.
• For the fourth straight week, Oklahoma State is No. 1 according to the computers. However, LSU is a co-No. 1. Three of the formulas like the Tigers, and three like Oklahoma State. Worthy of note is that no other team is ranked in the top two by any formula.
• The computers continue to love Boise State, with the Broncos sharing a co-No. 4 ranking with Oklahoma. The computers tend to hate losses more than they love schedules, so as long as the Broncos keep winning, they're not likely to fall out of the top five.
• Don't sleep on No. 11 Houston for an at-large BCS slot. If Boise State loses to TCU and drops, Houston might get an automatic BCS invite if it wins out. The BCS has to take a non-BCS conference team that finishes in the top 12.
The big winners: Alabama (only falling from No. 2 to No. 3), Virginia Tech (12th to 10th), Houston (13th to 11th)
The big losers: Nebraska (10th to 19th), South Carolina (9th to 13th), Michigan (15th to 24th)
1. LSU — Score: .9931
There are two big questions now about LSU. Will there be a rematch with Alabama, and would it still be in the mix for the national title should it lose? LSU will be in the BCS championship game as the No. 1 seed by winning out, but what would happen if Arkansas wins the regular-season finale? What happens if the Tigers gag away the SEC championship to Georgia or South Carolina? LSU almost certainly will be the best of the one-loss teams in the standings, but it wouldn't get in over an unbeaten Stanford or an unbeaten Oklahoma State.
Predicted wins: Western Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 13-0
Predicted bowl: BCS championship game
Toughest remaining test: Arkansas
2. Oklahoma State — Score: .9447
If Oregon beats Stanford this week, the Cowboys’ path to the BCS championship game is controversy-free. Even if the Cardinal win, the BCS computers love the Cowboys so much that Oklahoma State will stay No. 2 in the standings. Stanford will stay in the No. 2 spot in the coaches' poll with a win over Oregon, but if Oklahoma State wins out, including a victory over a one-loss Oklahoma to close out the regular season, that probably will change. After all, there's a 15-mile-wide gap between the BCS scores of OSU and No. 3 Alabama.
Predicted wins: at Texas Tech, at Iowa State
Predicted losses: Oklahoma
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest remaining tests: at Texas Tech, Oklahoma
3. Alabama — Score: .8836
The fall isn't far enough to ruin dreams of a rematch with LSU for the national title. If the Tide blow away Mississippi State and Auburn, and if Oklahoma and Oregon struggle or lose to anyone but Oklahoma State and Stanford, respectively, it'll be a hard sell to convince anyone that the two best teams in the country didn't play each other on Saturday night. There is a huge cushion between the Tide and Oklahoma, but that would be made up in a hurry if the Sooners win out.
Predicted wins: at Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, at Auburn
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Sugar
Toughest remaining tests: at Mississippi State, at Auburn
4. Stanford — Score: .8749
The coaches' poll has the Cardinal at No. 2, but that might not be enough to overtake Oklahoma State for the second spot in the final BCS standings. A win over Oregon this week would provide some sort of bump, but Oklahoma State gets the last say with the Oklahoma game in early December. The computers are a killer, putting the Cardinal No. 7, while Oklahoma State is tied for No. 1 with LSU.
Predicted wins: California, Notre Dame
Predicted losses: Oregon
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest remaining tests: Oregon, Notre Dame
5. Boise State — Score: .8473
A team shooting for the national title shouldn’t give up 21 points to UNLV under any circumstances. It'll take a total meltdown from a few top teams, and a couple of big upsets, for the Broncos to get in the national-title discussion. Blowing out TCU this week is a must; the bigger, more realistic concern is getting a BCS bid at all. A loss will open the door for Houston to take an automatic spot from the non-BCS schools.
Predicted wins: TCU, at San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: Sugar
Toughest remaining tests: TCU, at San Diego State
6. Oklahoma — Score: .7978
The loss of WR Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) hurts, but as long as the offensive production keeps rolling, and as long as the wins over brand-name teams keep coming, the Sooners will be in the national-title hunt. The Big 12 is the best top-to-bottom conference in the country this year — or, at least, top to Kansas — and the BCS computers are calculating accordingly. If the Sooners blow out Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State like they did Kansas State and Texas A&M, they'll battle with Alabama to be the cream of the one-loss crop. Don't pay too much attention to the No. 6 position. It'll quickly change with a few more wins.
Predicted wins: at Baylor, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: BCS championship game
Toughest remaining tests: at Baylor, at Oklahoma State
7. Oregon — Score: .7708
The Ducks are in a no-win situation. Many college football purists don't really want to see an LSU-Alabama rematch for the national title, but the idea of an Oregon-LSU rematch of the season opener is even less appealing. Even so, if the Ducks can blow out Stanford this week and then win out, they could end up ahead of a one-loss Oklahoma and a one-loss Alabama. There's way too much traffic to move into the No. 2 spot, but an at-large BCS spot is likely even if the Ducks lose to the Cardinal.
Predicted wins: at Stanford, USC, Oregon State, Pac-12 championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: Rose
Toughest remaining tests: at Stanford, USC
8. Arkansas — Score: .7452
South Carolina allegedly has a nasty defense, but Arkansas had no problems whatsoever moving the ball on it. Several dropped passes kept a possible blowout close, but the Hogs still won by double digits. LSU is so far and away the No. 1 team in the standings that if Arkansas wins in Death Valley in the regular-season finale, it'll be in the BCS championship discussion. The one-spot drop behind Oregon doesn't mean much if Arkansas goes 11-1.
Predicted wins: Tennessee, Mississippi State
Predicted losses: at LSU
Predicted final Record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Capital One
Toughest remaining test: at LSU
9. Clemson — Score: .6435
The Tigers got a week off and benefited from the South Carolina and Nebraska losses. The national title is out of the picture, but the ranking is just high enough that an at-large BCS slot is possible even if they lose in the ACC championship game. Realistically, though, Clemson has to win the ACC title to get on the big stage.
Predicted wins: Wake Forest, at NC State, at South Carolina, ACC championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: Orange
Toughest remaining tests: at NC State, at South Carolina
10. Virginia Tech — Score: .5913
Could the Hokies, if they don't win the ACC title, possibly be in a position for the much-sought after second ACC BCS slot? If they go 11-1 and lose in the ACC title game, most likely against Clemson, that would mean the two losses came to one team — Virginia Tech lost to the Tigers 23-3 in early October. The sex appeal might not be there for the Hokies, but the record is more than worthy. The computers aren't interested, though, putting the Hokies 14th.
Predicted wins: at Georgia Tech, North Carolina, at Virginia
Predicted losses: ACC championship game
Predicted final record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Chick-fil-A
Toughest remaining tests: at Georgia Tech, at Virginia
In range:
11. Houston — Score: 0.5510
12. Penn State — Score: 0.4838
13. South Carolina — Score: 0.4528
14. Kansas State — Score: 0.3808
15. Georgia — Score: 0.3696
16. Texas — Score: 0.3664
17. Michigan State — Score: 0.3372
18. Wisconsin — Score: 0.3046
19. Nebraska — Score: 0.2792
20. Auburn — Score: 0.2097
