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Here are four thoughts for the upcoming college football weekend:
1. The Rose Bowl play-in game in ... Salt Lake City?
Quickly, name the only conference in college football that has two teams ranked in the top five of the current BCS standings.
Yes, the Mountain West — not the mighty SEC, Big 12, or Big Ten — stands as the lone wolf boasting two squads in the top five this week. No.3 TCU and No.5 Utah square off Saturday in Salt Lake City with a conference title and potentially (a) the BCS National Championship Game or (b) a Rose Bowl berth hanging in the balance.
The Rose Bowl? You read that correctly.
Because of a curious one-year rule change, if Oregon (the Pac-10 champion) goes to the national title game, the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked non-automatic qualifier — over the second-place Pac-10 team or any other at-large possibilities — as the Big Ten champion’s opponent. With TCU already ranked above Boise State in the BCS standings, one can assume that if the winner of this one finishes the season unbeaten, and the Ducks do, as well, they’ll be Pasadena-bound.
You can hear the ABC/ESPN execs and the Rose Bowl’s chief sponsors grumbling from Madison Avenue to Pasadena. I’m imagining the Brent Musburger introduction now, “The Rose Bowl, presented by Vizio! Pitting the mighty Badgers from Wisconsin versus ... the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University ... who are dressed in purple ... and yes, are a real college football team, folks. We promise.”
To many fans of the sport, Utah and TCU exist in far-off lands as some distant figments of the imagination. They win a few games against second-tier BCS conference teams in September, they disappear for three months, and then show up again in January, like gnats, only to “steal” BCS bowl bids from major conference schools that “deserve” them more.
They play high school junior varsity-level competition from late September to late November, put up eye-popping offensive and defensive statistics, and quietly go about their business over on the CBS College Sports Network, rarely getting much air time or conversation on ESPN’s 11 channels.
In truth, though, there’s not much more either team — or Boise State, for that matter — can really prove. They’re damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
They’re expected to blow out their inferior conference rivals. They do. They’re expected to win their regular-season matchups with BCS-conference opponents. They do. They’re expected to win bowl games. They do.
Of course, when they do win those bowl games, there’s always a “yeah, but” on the talk radio shows the next morning. The January wins are guffawed and dismissed because the non-automatic qualifier teams have had the luxury of playing “cupcake opponents” the past three months instead of the grueling conference slates seen in the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
Utah soundly beat a one-loss Alabama team in the heart of SEC country at the Sugar Bowl in 2008, the Urban Meyer/Alex Smith version of the Utes took apart Pittsburgh in the ’05 Fiesta Bowl, and Boise State defeated Oklahoma in one of the all-time classic games of college football history back in the ‘07 Fiesta Bowl. Has any of it changed the opinions of the BCS-conference die-hards? No. In fact, if there’s one thing fans of the Big Ten and SEC can actually agree upon, it’s that their teams — regardless of records or out-of-conference slates — are always far more deserving of the polls’ respect than their non-AQ counterparts.
Unfortunately, these same folks likely won’t pay two cents to Saturday’s clash of the mid-major titans in Salt Lake City. ESPN's GameDay crew will be on hand and score updates will trickle across the bottom line tickers during LSU-Alabama and Nebraska-Iowa State, but it won’t matter much. CBS College Sports will get its best ratings of the year this Saturday, but they’ll be dwarfed by the ones that Northwestern-Penn State brings in.
And so it goes.
For the first time in the BCS’ 12-year history, three non-AQ teams are ranked in the top five of the BCS standings. There’s a good shot the winner of Saturday’s TCU-Utah battle will be playing in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1.
For those who do check out the game, they’ll see the nation’s top defense going against a team that hasn’t lost at home in 21 games. Utah’s fans will all be decked in all black as the teams square off in their final meeting before Utah bolts the MWC for the Pac-10 next season. There’s revenge involved (Utah beat TCU in ’08, TCU beat Utah in ’09), there are future NFL stars littered across both rosters, and there’s two of the nation’s top coaches matching wits.
It should be a dandy.
If only the rest of the nation notices.
They'll notice on Jan. 1, when one of these two teams is in the Granddaddy of them all. And I'll spare you the expense -- they won't be too happy about it.
2. The unlikely power brokers of the Big 12 South
In the 14 years of the Big 12 Championship Game, the Big 12 South division has been represented by just three teams: Oklahoma (seven times), Texas (five times) and Texas A&M (twice). Two squads that have never even smelled a division title will be playing for the division lead Saturday afternoon in Stillwater.
Oklahoma State and Baylor — picked to finish fifth and sixth, respectively, by most pundits beforef the season — are atop the standings.
The Cowboys lost ’09 stars Dez Bryant, Zac Robinson, Russell Okung and Keith Tolston to the NFL in April and somehow got better on offense. Oklahoma State ranks second nationally with 527.3 yards of offense per game and is tied for third with 45.3 points per game. Quarterback Brandon Weeden, a nobody before the season started, is tied with Oklahoma’s Landry Jones for second in the FBS with 318.4 passing yards per game, while receiver Justin Blackmon — back in the lineup after missing a game for disciplinary reasons — leads the nation in both receiving yards per game and touchdowns. Kendall Hunter, one of college football’s true comeback players of the year, is third in the nation with 1,174 yards rushing. Even the offensive line, everybody’s greatest fear coming into the season, has been solid across the board. The Cowboys’ success is one of the true surprises of the 2010 season.
And yet it pales in comparison to Baylor’s. The 6-2 (4-1) Bears are bowl eligible for the first time since 1995, are fresh off their first win over Texas since 1997 and are winners of three straight Big 12 conference games. Not bad for a team that has finished last or tied for last in its division 13 times in 14 previous Big 12 seasons.
“The tide has changed. This year, we’re the team to beat,” said quarterback Robert Griffin III, who threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in last week’s win at Texas.
Either team would reach the Big 12 title game if it were to win out. Both the Bears and Cowboys host No. 11 Oklahoma, which is 3-1, later this month. If Baylor does somehow beat OSU in Stillwater and then the Aggies and Sooners in back-to-back-to-back weeks, we’ll be talking about not only a trip to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 4 but also a trip to New York City for their quarterback on Dec. 11.
Of course, there’s no reason to look ahead of the Cowboys. The Bears haven’t won in Stillwater since 1939. Overall, Oklahoma State has won four straight over Baylor, outscoring the Bears 179-51, including a 34-7 victory last season.
3. Nine out of 10 dentists agree Arizona's D is for real.
My dentist went to Arizona in the mid-‘90s. Anytime I come in for a check-up, we talk sports for a few minutes before he reminisces about his glory days back on campus in Tucson watching the Desert Swarm defense terrorize opposing quarterbacks. Led by Tedy Bruschi, Sean Moray and Spencer Wray, the ’94 Wildcats were on a path to their first and only Rose Bowl berth before Rob Johnson and USC lit them up for 550 yards and 45 points in the L.A. Coliseum, derailing any such Pasadena dreams.
‘Zona’s had some flirtations with the Rose Bowl a few times since ’94 (they went 12-1 in ’98), but the Wildcats D has never reached the heights of that Desert Swarm squad. Until now.
Mike Stoops’ 2010 ‘Cats defense (sorry, no catchy nickname this time around) has keyed the squad’s early success. The Wildcats (7-1, 4-1) defense is seventh in the nation in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game and tops in the Pac-10.
Saturday’s trip to Palo Alto will match the ‘Zona D vs. Stanford’s high-powered offense. The contest can be viewed as an elimination game of sorts. Stanford would need two Oregon losses to win the Pac-10 if they lose Saturday, while Arizona would fall behind Stanford in the pecking order after first-place Oregon with a defeat. ‘Zona’s had a nice start to the season, but with consecutive games against Stanford, USC and Oregon ahead — a conference championship will be anything but easy.
They’ll rely on that D.
“No question, this is the best defense we’ve played, or will play,” Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh said this week.
The unit’s strength is its pass rush, led by senior ends Ricky Elmore (eight sacks) and Brooks Reed (5.5 sacks). The Wildcats have been sacking quarterbacks at an absurd pace this season (fifth nationally with 3.38 per game), but the Cardinal offensive line has allowed only three sacks all season.
Arizona is the lone Pac-10 team to never play in a Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, it appears as though a second-place finish in the conference (behind Oregon), won’t get them in there. As noted earlier, if the Ducks go to the national title game, the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked non-AQ team. It’s a one-season rule, and would mean a Boise State, TCU or Utah would get in over a second-place Arizona. What’s that mean? To smell the roses on New Year’s Day, the ‘Cats have no other option than to win out.
The Desert Swarm couldn’t do it. Maybe this defense can.
4. Fourth time’s a charm
There’s an enticing mid-major battle Friday evening between UCF and Houston that could end up serving as a Conference USA Championship Game preview. George O’Leary’s Knights took command of the East Division with an upset victory over East Carolina last Saturday, while Houston — despite a rocky start and injuries to just about every quarterback on the roster not named Klingler or Ware — has won its past two games by a combined score of 101-37.
Much of Houston’s recent offensive success can be attributed to the play of true freshman quarterback David Piland. One of the estimated 700 quarterbacks to come out of Texas high school powerhouse Southlake Carroll High School over the past couple of years, Piland wasn’t supposed to see the field this year.
Yet, after Heisman hopeful Case Keenum and prized backup Cotton Turner went down with injuries, and fellow blue-chip freshman Terrance Broadway failed to seize his opportunity as “the guy,” Piland has made the most of his shot as the unexpected new No.1.
The Cougars had a 651-321 landslide in total offense in last Saturday’s win over Memphis, and Piland threw for five touchdowns. Piland has looked great (and perhaps prematurely been compared to Keenum by Cougars fans on the message boards) but hasn’t seen a defense like UCF’s yet.
Friday night’s game features the league’s highest-scoring offense in Houston (41.6 points per game) against the league’s stingiest scoring defense in UCF (allowing just 16.5 points per game). Something’s gotta give. I like this Piland kid and the reinvented Cougars. Even if he was the squad's fourth option.
Schrager BCS Bowl Projections Through Week 9
BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn.
Rose Bowl: TCU (first non-AQ) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten Champion)
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska (Big 12 champion) vs. Boise State (at-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (at-large) vs. Pittsburgh (Big East champion)
Orange Bowl: Ohio State (at-large) vs. Virginia Tech (ACC champion)
Schrager Heisman Ballot Through Week 9
1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
3. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
