Stats don’t lie but they can stretch the truth

Published Aug. 14, 2010 12:58 a.m. ET

foxsports

I'll be the first to admit that I'm often guilty of taking statistics in college football at face value when judging a unit. For example, I'll glance at passing efficiency defense rankings, see a team putting up solid numbers, and think, "That's a great team at defending the pass."

However, I might forget to take into account that the team in question might be marginal in terms of stopping the run. If that's the case, then the opposition might not even be emphasizing the pass. Hell, why fling it when you can run it? In such a scenario, you have to take stats with a grain of salt.

So I've come to have the belief that while stats don't lie, they can definitely stretch the truth a little bit. A case in point is the Texas Longhorns' run defense from a season ago.

After the final numbers were compiled, they were the nation's stingiest run defense, yielding a paltry 72.4 yard per game on the ground. That came on 458 carries by the opposition through 14 games. Next in line was Alabama at 78.1 ypg on 395 carries in 14 contests.

There's been an emphasis by Mack Brown in recent years to get his various defensive coordinators (Gene Chizik, Duane Akina and Will Muschamp) to get tougher on the run. The trend says that's exactly what's been happening:

2009: #1 at 72.4 ypg

2008: #3 at 83.5 ypg

2007: #6 at 93.4 ypg

2006: #3 at 61.2 ypg

2005: #33 at 130.9 ypg

2004: #16 at 107.4 ypg

2003: #58 at 152.5 ypg

It's interesting to note that the Longhorns' second worst recent showing in this category came in the national title year of 2005. However, that particular Texas defense ended up finishing 10th nationally against both land and air attack, while the offense blew up with Vince Young at the helm.

Here's an interesting factor concerning the run defense from that championship year: Texas played five teams that finished in the top 25 nationally in rushing (Ohio State, Rice, Missouri, Texas A&M and USC). Against that kind of competition, giving up 130 ypg on the ground is no crime at all.

So using that notion, that a very good defense still has trouble shutting down a very good running team, brings us to an obvious conclusion: the fewer solid ground games you face, the fewer yards you allow.

And as the decade has wore on, the Big 12 has fielded fewer solid ground games because no league in the country has embraced pass heavy spread attacks the way it has.

For example, take 2008, a year in which five Big 12 teams (including Texas) finished in the top ten nationally in passing offense. Total touchdown passes thrown by that quintet of squads? A mindboggling 208. Two hundred and eight.

The league's shift toward passing didn't generate the same kind of numbers last season, but the emphasis was still there. Big 12 teams in the top 25 in passing? Six. Big 12 teams in the top 25 in rushing? One.

But the dearth of Big 12 teams at the top of last year's rushing rankings isn't nearly as fascinating as the glut of teams at the other end of those rankings. Four league members - Kansas, Baylor, Colorado and Texas Tech - finished in the bottom top 25 nationally.

And guess who got to play them all? That would be Texas, and as you can expect, the result was pretty ugly: those opponents were credited with 106 rushes for 89 yards. Yup, less than a yard a pop.

Compare that to the two occasions when Texas got most generous last season, against Texas A&M and Alabama. Those teams ran it a combined 91 times for 395 yards on the Longhorns. In the BCS title game alone Alabama notched four rushing touchdowns, which was one fewer than Texas had allowed going into the contest.

As mentioned earlier, Alabama finished second nationally against the run in 2009, but unlike Texas put those numbers up against better running attacks. The Tide played five teams that finished in the top 25 in rushing. It's also worth noting that none of Alabama's SEC compatriots finished in the bottom 25 nationally in this category.

Even with the addition of a grizzled SEC coaching veteran like Tommy Tuberville at a pass happy school like Texas Tech, I don't expect the nature of the Big 12 to change much this season. This is still a conference full of schools that love to throw the football.

So if the landscape is unchanged, you have to be a little bit weary of Texas' true ability to stop the run when it counts the most. That's because the league in which stats are compiled is just as telling as the numbers themselves.