SEC Football: Week Six Predictions

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Week 5 didn’t spark the comeback that I had hoped as I went 4-4 on my predictions against the spread, but it certainly could have been a lot worse. I was dead on about South Carolina covering against Texas A&M and Tennessee’s desperation heave saved me from a sub .500 record for the weekend. Unfortunately, Alabama and Missouri failed to live up to their end of the bargain which prevented me from evening up my record for the season.

But I won’t let past failures get me down, especially with this week’s slate of games. In fact, I’m so confident about my predictions that I’m willing to declare that this will be the week that I break the .500 mark against the spread. On to week six!

Auburn (-2.5) over Mississippi State, Saturday 11:00 AM (CT), Davis Wade Stadium

I still don’t really know what to think about either one of these teams. Mississippi State has looked decent against their SEC opponents, but have really struggled against two lower level non-conference opponents. Auburn clearly boasts a great defense, but I’m not sure their offense is capable of improving with their lack of playmakers on that side of the ball.

With that being said, Auburn should be able to cover in this game fairly easily. Mississippi State’s quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has looked good so far, but has yet to face a defense like Auburn’s. Mississippi State also just gave up 35 points to UMass, so I’m confident that Auburn can find a way to put up some points against the Bulldog defense. Auburn 27, Mississippi State 17

Sep 10, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Christian Kirk (3) celebrates with wide receiver Ricky Seals-Jones (9) after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Prairie View A&M Panthers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M (-7) over Tennessee, Saturday 2:30 PM (CT), Kyle Field

The Vols are fresh off their miracle win at Georgia, but they have no time to savor their victory. Tennessee now faces their toughest test of the season thus far as they will play at Kyle Field for the first time ever. That’s never an easy task, especially considering the gauntlet of games Tennessee is trying to currently navigate.

The Vols have shown a knack for comebacks this season, but can’t afford to fall behind to this A&M team. The Aggies boast a clear advantage with their defensive line going up against a Vols offensive line that has struggled. The Aggies are also talented enough on offense to take advantage of the Tennessee secondary. Texas A&M is simply the better team and I expect them to cause havoc for Josh Dobbs as Tennessee’s perfect season comes to an end. Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 17

Oct 1, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Calvin Ridley (3) catches a pass against Kentucky Wildcats at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide defeated Kentucky 34-6. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama over Arkansas (+14), Saturday 6:00 PM (CT), Razorback Stadium

A good Arkansas team is getting 14 points at home? This seems disrespectful to a Razorbacks’ team whose only loss is to a great A&M team. Plus, the A&M game was a lot closer than the score indicated. I should also add that I’m not at all sold on Alabama this season, especially with the way they look on offense. Taking the points here seems like easy money.

Ultimately, I believe this will be a low scoring game with neither offense being able to do much. Bama’s offense, despite the talent at receiver, is handicapped by QB Jalen Hurts’ inability to throw the ball downfield. Luckily for the Crimson Tide, the defense has been dominant enough to make up for the inefficiencies of the offense. I think that will likely continue here as the Bama D will be able to make just enough plays to drag the offense along to a victory. Alabama 28, Arkansas 20

Elsewhere around the SEC:

Kentucky (-3) over Vanderbilt

Georgia (-7.5) over South Carolina

Record: 24-26 ATS, 41-9 Straight-up