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Playoff poll takeaways: OK State perfectly sums up Big 12's problem
Fair warning: I’m writing these words from the Pacific time zone, but my body may still be on Central time from my Alabama trip last weekend. Hopefully the committee takes that into consideration if this column stinks.
Key takeaways from this season’s second College Football Playoff rankings:
The committee hates the Big 12!!! More specifically, it’s not thrilled with the conference’s intentionally back-loaded schedule. Chairman Jeff Long said Tuesday night it makes it difficult to evaluate teams like No. 6 Baylor, which “doesn't have a win over a team with a winning record yet.” The Bears are still better off, though, than No. 8 Oklahoma State, which just beat former No. 8 TCU by 20 points but remains behind three one-loss teams. “Oklahoma State had a good win,” said Long, but, “That's the first piece of real strength that we've seen from them.”
Ultimately, all four Big 12 contenders still have multiple opportunities to impress the committee, and if either Baylor or Oklahoma State run the table, they’re in. But given that TCU plummeted from eighth to 15th, if either of the former two lose one down the stretch, they’re probably out. Oklahoma, which at least lost early, is the league’s only shot to make it as a one-loss champ.
The committee auto-corrected itself on Iowa. Last week I was surprised the undefeated Hawkeyes only checked in at No. 9 given their relatively strong resume, and this week I’m surprised they moved all the way up to No. 5 off a win over Indiana. All the things Long said the committee liked about Iowa — road wins over two Top 25 teams (No. 18 Northwestern and No. 25 Wisconsin), “consistency on both sides of the ball” — were true a week earlier, though the Wildcats had not yet beaten Penn State and the Badgers had not yet cracked the Top 25.
Iowa fans can now breathe easier. If this team wins out and beats a highly ranked team in the Big Ten title game, the Hawkeyes will get in. After all, “they’re not flashy but they’re consistent.”
Ohio State’s No. 3 ranking is based solely on the eye test. We already suspected as much, given the Buckeyes have yet to beat a Top 25 team, but Long confirmed as much with this defense: “We watch them play, we analyze them. We think they have incredible talent. We think [OSU] is a team that hasn't played its best yet. We think that their best games are in front of them. Obviously, they've had a little bit of inconsistency in the quarterback, and so we're looking forward to evaluating them going forward with J.T. Barrett.”
All of that is essentially why I have Ohio State No. 3 myself. But my ballot is meaningless.
Navy could prove problematic. Coming off a rousing upset of Memphis, the 7-1 Midshipmen debuted at No. 20, highest of any Group of 5 team, and in fact higher than 9-0 Houston. If the Midshipmen end up winning the AAC (which would require beating those Cougars on the road and a conference championship game, most likely against No. 22 Temple), it stands to reason they’ll then be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ come Dec. 6 — but they still have the Army game a week later.
In that event, the committee would hold off locking in the last New Year’s Six bowl berth until after the Dec. 12 Army game. If Navy were to lose, the committee would hold a teleconference that night to discuss whether to send a different Group of 5 champ.
The committee discusses everything. As referenced earlier, Long made a passing comment on TV about the fact No. 7 Stanford’s season-opening loss to Northwestern took place at 9 a.m. Pacific. Asked on a conference call afterward whether the committee really discussed that, Long replied: “Absolutely, we discussed that. We discussed a lot of things in that committee room. Remember, we're spending two days in there. And yeah, I think that it is a significant thing. ... I think we would not be doing our due diligence if we didn't recognize that that team was playing at 9:00 a.m. Pacific.”
“Body clock” instantly became a source of mockery, but really, Stanford would likely be right where it is if it had lost 16-6 at 3 p.m. It’s won eight straight since and has a closing stretch of 6-3 Oregon, 5-4 Cal and 8-1 Notre Dame. The Northwestern loss is a distant memory ... but that was a clunky reminder.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
