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Oregon still has a chance, however slight, to make it to the national championship game. The Ducks are just going to need some help.
OK, a lot of help.
First, the fifth-ranked Ducks have to beat rival Oregon State in the Civil War next Saturday. That's a challenge, because the game is in Corvallis, where the Beavers are known for big upsets. And Oregon State (8-2) is no slouch this season.
It also would be a big help for Oregon if UCLA beats Stanford in Los Angeles on the same day. The Cardinal knocked the Ducks off the top of The Associated Press Top 25 with a 17-14 overtime victory Saturday night, but UCLA, like the Beavers, has made a major turnaround this season. The Bruins won the Pac-12 South title when they beat Southern California 38-28 on Saturday.
Most of all, the Ducks need Notre Dame to lose to USC next weekend. But the Fighting Irish are undefeated and Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley is out after taking a hard hit in the loss to the Bruins.
About the only thing that's for sure is Oregon's quest for a second national championship appearance in the past three years has veered off course. And even a shot at the Rose Bowl is in jeopardy.
''It's not going to be easy, but we understand that we have a couple of more games and whatever plays out plays out,'' Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota said. ''We just have to control what we can control.''
Oregon (10-1, 7-1) dropped to No. 5 when the new AP poll was released on Sunday. Notre Dame jumped from No. 3 to No. 1. Kansas State, which also was undefeated until a stunning 52-24 loss to unranked Baylor on Saturday, fell from No. 2 to No. 7.
Meanwhile, Stanford (9-2, 7-1) jumped three spots to No. 11, and UCLA hopped up two places to No. 15. Oregon State, which beat California 62-14, fell a spot to No. 16.
In the BCS standings released Sunday night, Oregon was No. 5, Stanford was No. 8, Oregon State No. 15 and UCLA No. 17.
While the Pac-12 South has already been clinched by the Bruins, the race for the North won't be decided until next weekend. The Ducks and the Cardinal each have one conference loss, and if both win this Saturday, Stanford would claim the other spot in the Pac-12 championship game on Nov. 30.
And that means Stanford could play UCLA (9-2, 6-2) two weeks in a row. If Stanford loses and Oregon beats the Beavers, the Ducks would win the Pac-12 North outright. The Ducks have won three straight Pac-12 championships.
At least theoretically, Oregon could go to the national title game without playing in the conference championship. And it also could receive an at-large bid for a BCS bowl.
Oregon was ranked No. 4 last season when then-No. 18 USC visited Autzen Stadium and left with a 38-35 upset. Alejandro Maldonado missed a 37-yeard field goal in the final seconds that would have tied it.
Against the Cardinal, Maldonado missed a 41-yard field goal in overtime. Stanford came back with Jordan Williamson's winning 37-yard field goal.
The loss snapped Oregon's 13-game winning streak, which was the longest in the nation. It also snapped the Ducks' NCAA-record streak of 23 games with at least 30 points.
''We want to bounce back and get back on the right track on Monday,'' said Kenjon Barner, who was held to just 66 yards rushing after entering with an average of 136 yards per game. ''We've been here before against USC last year and we have today and tomorrow to feel this loss and then we have to get back to work on Monday.''
The 116th Civil War game lies ahead.
While Oregon State (8-2, 6-2) has already been eliminated from Rose Bowl contention, the team is still bowl-eligible after a remarkable rebound from a 3-9 finish last season.
''I didn't see the score up on the board, just heard the crowd cheering,'' said Oregon State cornerback Jordan Poyer, who was still on the field at Reser Stadium on Saturday night when the Ducks lost to Stanford.
''I asked one of our players what happened and I found out it was 17-14 in overtime but I didn't know it was over yet,'' he added. ''I didn't find out until later on in the game that they had lost but I try to not pay too much attention to that stuff. We will see the tape and figure out where they are vulnerable.''
Oregon State's last victory in the Civil War came in 2007, when the Beavers snapped a 10-game winning streak for the home team with a 38-31 overtime victory at Autzen.
The next season, Oregon State needed a Civil War win for its first Rose Bowl bid in 44 years, but fell to Oregon 65-38. In 2009, the winner of the game was guaranteed a Rose Bowl berth in the so-called ''War of the Roses'' and the Ducks won 37-33.
But the Beavers have become known for pulling off a few major upsets in the past decade.
In 2008, Oregon State was a 26-point underdog and defeated top-ranked USC 27-21 in Corvallis, a loss that ultimately cost the Trojans a shot at the national championship.
The year before, Oregon State derailed No. 2 California 31-28 on Oct. 31 in Berkeley. The Golden Bears were on the verge of becoming No. 1 after the top-ranked team that week had lost.
In 2006, Oregon State defeated the No. 3 Trojans, 33-31, again at Reser.
Another upset would continue a charmed season for the Beavers, who were picked at the start of the season to finish last in the Pac-12 North by reporters who cover the league.
''I can't explain how much it will mean to me,'' Oregon State receiver Markus Wheaton said after the win over the Bears. ''We will get back out there tomorrow and prepare for next week. Next week, it is unexplainable how much it means to me.''
