Mailbag: Why Deshaun Watson could run into a brick wall vs. Alabama

Published Jan. 6, 2016 12:40 p.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

So far the dominant college football storylines of the first few days of 2016 have been lopsided bowl games and dreadful TV ratings. Let’s move on to what will hopefully be a competitive, redemptive finale.

Stewart, I’ve heard quite a few analysts stating that Deshaun Watson is the kind of mobile quarterback that Alabama struggles to contain and that could be the Tide’s downfall on Monday. The two best mobile QBs they faced this season were Tennessee’s Josh Dobbs and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott. They combined for 33 yards rushing against ’Bama. Do you think this year’s Alabama defense has solved its previous issues?

-- Jake Dawson, Moline, Ill.

This is indisputably the storyline for Monday night. It’s true that dual-threat QBs like Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel and Nick Marshall have given Nick Saban’s defenses fits in the past. It’s a bit of an unfair criticism, though, because Newton and Manziel in particular gave everybody fits. So I don’t think it’s been a “mobile QB” problem so much as a “really good QB” problem. And with all due respect to Dobbs and Prescott, Deshaun Watson is much closer to the Newton/Manziel stratosphere.

Against Oklahoma, Watson actually seemed off in the passing game for most of the night, but both he and tailback Wayne Gallman were gashing the Sooners on the ground. Watson ran 24 times for a season-high 145 yards. The threat Watson presents puts extraordinary pressure on a defense. SI’s Andy Staples did a nice job illustrating exactly how Clemson maximizes him.

Ostensibly, Alabama is much better suited for the challenge than it has in years past because the Tide’s strength is their deep and dominant defensive line. That has not always been the case. It’s been a purposeful philosophy change by Saban and Kirby Smart in response to the prevalence of tempo offenses. Alabama leads the nation with 50 sacks. To put that in perspective, the Tide to this point have not finished higher than 29th in that department under Saban.

If Jonathan Allen, Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson and their cohorts overwhelm Clemson’s offensive line like they did Michigan State’s, it’s probably game over. Watson’s mobility only gets him so far if there’s nowhere to run. Where Watson could really hurt the Tide, though, is if he’s able to use his feet to buy time when the pocket collapses, at which point either he finds an open receiver or takes off and gets to the open field.

Clemson’s defense is fantastic, and it may be that the Tide don’t score a lot of points in this game. But for the Tigers to win, I do think Watson will need to have an epic performance both running and passing.

Was Alabama's thrashing of Michigan State more of an endorsement of Alabama or indictment of Michigan State? Does Michigan State feel long-term effects of that game?

-- Matthew Levitt, Aurora, Ill.

Can it be both?

Alabama played very nearly a perfect game. Its defense dominated, its offense hit all the right notes and it even scored on special teams. But because our standard of measurement for Alabama is so much higher than it is for nearly any other program, I do sense that many considered it just kind of par for the course. The Tide have to finish the job.

Michigan State got blown out by Alabama in a bowl game five years ago, and the long-term affect was it recruited better players, won at least 11 games four of the next five years, won a pair of Big Ten titles and beat Georgia, TCU, Stanford and Baylor in bowl games. I don’t think Mark Dantonio’s team has anything to be ashamed of.

But as I wrote last year, the playoff is going to make it harder for “developmental” teams like Michigan State that don’t regularly recruit Top 10 classes to win a national championship. We know the Spartans can beat more talented teams, as they did Ohio State this season, but doing it more than once is a tough task. And Alabama was a particularly bad matchup because of the similar styles. It’s very hard to out-’Bama Alabama.

Which bowl game outcome surprised you the most?

-- Mike Clark, Omaha, Neb.

I’m most surprised by how few surprises there were. Usually picking bowl games is a complete crapshoot and I’m happy just to perform better than a coin flip, but this year I went 27-13, which may well be the best I’ve ever done. And believe me, I know no more about this year’s teams than I did 2005’s or 2012’s. That’s probably why I still whiffed on Akron winning the Potato Bowl.

Houston thumping Florida State would have seemed like a bigger surprise if the ’Noles weren’t down their top two quarterbacks by the second quarter. Nebraska beating UCLA despite its losing record would be more surprising if the Bruins did not have such a long-entrenched history of belly-flops.

I’m going to go with two under-the-radar ones. The first is the way Auburn beat Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl, which was that a defense that underwhelmed for most of the season absolutely suffocated star Tigers QB Paxton Lynch in a 31-10 rout. Memphis managed just 205 total yards as Will Muschamp’s anticipated Auburn defensive makeover finally took hold -- a game after he left. It’s certainly encouraging for next season.

The other was Georgia Southern’s 58-27 clinic against Bowling Green in the GoDaddy Bowl. I was much more familiar going in with the Falcons’ high-scoring offense than their Sun Belt opponent’s. But watching the Eagles line up in the Pistol and run what looked at times like a quintuple-option offense was a heck of a lot of fun. Tulane fans are going to really enjoy new coach Willie Fritz.

But man -- it’s hard to say anything was more impressive this bowl season than Gary Patterson’s shirt.

Stewart, Because you watch far more football than me, have better perspective and are far more articulate, please explain again how Christian McCaffrey didn't win the Heisman.

Thank you,
Michael, San Diego

It’s pretty simple. Derrick Henry’s biggest games came on CBS in the middle of the afternoon or, in the case of the LSU game that turned the race, primetime. McCaffrey’s mostly came at 10:30 p.m. ET, or, in the case of the Pac-12 championship, opposite much bigger games. I have no evidence to prove it, but for many voters outside of the West Coast, McCaffrey was mostly a stat (the all-purpose yards record), not an actual player who you’d watch run away from defenses. Conversely, everybody saw Henry run over the SEC.

If the vote were reheld today, post-Rose Bowl, I don’t think there’s any doubt McCaffrey would win the Heisman. But if we revisit this a week from now I might say the same thing about Henry or Deshaun Watson. All three were deserving.

How would the "New Years Six" bowls have been chosen with this year's teams and rankings but with the 2016-17 bowl rotation? The Stanford-Iowa Rose Bowl and Oklahoma State-Ole Miss Sugar appear that they would have stayed the same. What about the other four bowls?

-- Kevin Prescott, Frisco, Texas

Good question. Year 3 in the most unique in the rotation in that none of the contract bowls (Rose, Sugar and Orange) host a semifinal, but two of the three “open” bowls (Fiesta and Peach) do. That leaves the Cotton as the lone one of the group with an at-large spot -- but just one, because it’s also the only available spot for the Group of 5 champ. So the committee really doesn’t have to do anything after they rank the teams.

Using this year’s rankings . . .

Dec. 31 Orange: No. 9 Florida State (ACC) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (B1G/SEC/ND)

Dec. 31 Peach: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma

Dec. 31 Fiesta: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State

Jan. 2 Cotton: No. 8 Notre Dame (at-large) vs. No. 18 Houston (Group of 5)

Jan. 2 Rose: No. 5 Stanford (Pac-12) vs. No. 6 Iowa (Big Ten)

Jan. 2 Sugar: No. 12 Ole Miss (SEC) vs. No. 16 Oklahoma State (Big 12)

As you’ll notice, the Jan. 1 bowls move to Jan. 2, as they have whenever Jan. 1 falls on Sunday for a long, long time. Mostly it’s to avoid conflicting with the NFL, though as I learned doing some recent research, the Rose Bowl’s “Never on Sunday” rule actually predates the game and the NFL. It began with the 1893 Rose Parade, because “officials feared the parade would frighten horses tethered outside Pasadena churches.”

Stewart: Looking at the season and bowl games, I think Ohio State was the best team from the Big Ten and would have been competitive if they made it to the playoff. Being a biased Ohio State fan, I felt this way when the bowl selection committee made its picks, but can't fault their logic. Is there a problem to fix, or just not enough games played to show how strong teams are?

-- Tim, Orlando

There was a problem to fix -- Ohio State’s offense. Unfortunately, Urban Meyer fixed it one game too late.

Ohio State is losing some productive seniors and a growing list of juniors and third-year sophomores (Bosa, Elliott, Apple, etc.). What are the team's prospects for next year? Will they be the Big Ten favorite?

-- David Filipi, Columbus, Ohio

The Buckeyes are losing an absurd amount of underclassmen -- nine as of this writing -- and with the possible exception of safety Tyvis Powell, these are all legit high-round guys. (Cardale Jones’ stock is admittedly impossible to predict, but someone will be intrigued by his size and raw talent.) It’s a testament to just how loaded Urban Meyer’s first couple of recruiting classes were.

It’s unrealistic to think Ohio State won’t take a step back in 2016. It’s just too much inexperience at too many key positions, especially on the offensive line and secondary. But Meyer should be able to avoid the kind of drop-off he did in his last year at Florida in large part because he has a proven quarterback coming back in J.T. Barrett. That’s huge. If young guys develop quickly, the Buckeyes could still win 10 games. Big Ten favorite, though? There’s a team up North that figures to take over that role come summer.

I know that bowl season is a different season altogether and I am well-aware of your opinion that the teams that show up for bowl games are usually not the same ones seen during the regular season. That said, after having seen Iowa get plastered by Stanford and Michigan State getting clobbered in embarrassing fashion, what do you think about the Big 10’s top teams? Would Ohio State have really given Alabama a much more competitive game in your opinion?

-- Salmaan, Texas

They might have. Or, Alabama might have held the Buckeyes to 132 yards like Michigan State did.

Stewart,

All of the CFP games this year were lopsided games. Do you think the committee got it wrong? Care to go back and reevaluate the selections of the games?

-- Ryan, Marietta, Ga.

I realize we operate in a world where someone is to blame for everything save the color of the sky, but I don’t know what more the committee could have done. They picked a completely uncontroversial top four teams. The Rose Bowl then pitted No. 5 (Iowa) vs. No. 6 (Stanford) in a bowl, and the committee matched No. 7 (Ohio State) vs. No. 8 (Notre Dame) in the Fiesta Bowl. Certainly no one expected Houston to hand it to Florida State. Only the Ole Miss-Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl was contractually unavoidable.

End of day, it’s sports. Blowouts happen.

As a Ducks fan, I was pleased to see both that Don Pellum was relieved of his DC responsibilities AND that he will be retained as a linebackers coach. Are demotions like that common at the FBS level? Will Oregon's search for a new DC be hindered by Pellum's presence on the staff? Do most coordinators insist on being able to hand-pick their position coaches?

-- Thelonious Jones, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

It’s pretty rare. Sometimes you’ll see someone move into a co-coordinator role but with the understanding that the new guy’s the one running the show. Pellum flat-out lost that title and will go back to his former role as linebackers coach.

Mark Helfrich had to make a change. Pellum’s two-year run as coordinator was mostly a disaster. But Oregon is a uniquely loyal program in regards to its coaching staff, with Pellum one of four assistants who’s been there more than 20 years. Mind you, Oregon’s had many different head coaches during that time. So I’m not surprised Helfrich would keep Pellum on staff or that Pellum would accept his demotion. It’s unique in an era of mostly constant turnover.

Stewart,

The current playoff system promised not only the four best teams for the playoff, but compelling, competitive matchups for all of the New Year's Six bowls. So how did we end up with no game closer than two touchdowns, and the majority turn-the-TV-off-early blowouts? Just a freak aberration or the inevitable product of yet another flawed system?

-- Jeff Japinga, Saint Paul, Minn.

It’s those damn millennials. They don’t even take their bowl games seriously.

I was disappointed a few years ago when I read that Bill Hancock was in charge of the CFP, just as he was in charge of the BCS. Who exactly does he work for, or who appoints him? School presidents? ADs? ESPN?

-- Roger, Salt Lake City, Utah

Poor Bill. He’s college football’s human piñata. (If you missed it, we interviewed him on The Audible this week.)

Hancock’s title is executive director, but he’s appointed by and speaks on behalf of the 10 conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director (Jack Swarbrick), who formed the playoff and make all the substantive decisions. Hancock did not unilaterally decide to play semifinal games on New Year’s Eve, nor does he have the authority to change it even if he wanted to. But when the bullets come flying, as they did this week -- including from me -- he’s compensated handsomely to take them on the commissioners’ behalf.

One thing to note: For the first decade of the BCS’ existence, it had no director. The commissioners took turns serving as “coordinator” for two years. They hired Hancock, who formerly oversaw the NCAA tournament, to that role in 2009, and he transitioned over to the CFP with the rest of them. Unlike the BCS, the CFP has a full-time staff working under Hancock to run the event, but the commissioners (referred to as the Management Committee) make all the overarching decisions.

I know bowl games can be a crapshoot for a variety of reasons, but do you have any thoughts about why the scores of so many of them seemed to be so lopsided this year?

-- Philip Alison, New Orleans

Obama.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.