Mailbag: SEC West hype, Mississippi State's rise, Pac-12 playoff hopes

Published Oct. 8, 2014 11:45 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

Editor's note: To submit questions for the Mailbag, email Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.

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Before we get to the mail, I just wanted to make you loyal readers aware of a cool new weekly feature we’re doing here, the FOX Four. We’ve assembled a committee of 13 FOX Sports analysts — everyone from myself and Bruce Feldman to on-air luminaries like Dave Wannstedt, Joel Klatt and Matt Leinart — to offer their latest playoff rankings every Sunday night. Before you say, “Oh, great, another meaningless poll,” I think you’ll find it an interesting window into the playoff-selection thought process, as we’re not just going to list the teams but provide a sampling of comments from the group on why they ranked teams where they did.

The group’s first edition: 1) Auburn, 2) Florida State, 3) Baylor and 4) a certain Mississippi school. Hint: Not the one in Oxford.

Hi Stewart, I just saw the latest AP poll and Mississippi State is now tied for third (with some other random team). Just three weeks ago, before they beat LSU, State was unranked. Have you ever seen a team jump so high, so quickly?

-- Philip, New Orleans

In fact, Mississippi State went from unranked to No. 3 in the country in the span of 15 days (Sept. 20 to Oct. 5). It’s staggering. And if the Bulldogs beat No. 2 Auburn this week, I think there’s a decent chance they’d supplant Florida State at No. 1. Were that to happen, it would be very similar to eventual national champion Oklahoma’s ascent in 2000. In the course of three games (over four weeks) that October, the Sooners, 7-5 the year before, beat No. 11 Texas 63-14, No. 2 Kansas State 41-31 and No. 1 Nebraska 31-14 to rise to No. 1 themselves. However, Oklahoma began the year ranked No. 19 and had cracked the Top 10 by the time of that Texas game. So that’s not quite the same thing.

A more recent, but in hindsight regrettable, example of an off-the-radar team crashing the party was USF in 2007. Jim Leavitt’s Bulls beat No. 17 Auburn and No. 5 West Virginia to go from unranked in the preseason to No. 2 on Oct. 18. However, their ascension was as much a product of the upset rash around them (No. 1 USC losing to 41-point underdog Stanford, followed by new No. 1 LSU losing to Kentucky) than their own feats. USF’s run ended with a Thursday night loss at Rutgers, for which I was in attendance, and it wound up finishing the season 9-4 and unranked.

When I spoke with Dan Mullen on Tuesday, he was surprisingly nonplussed by all the hoopla, almost like coaching in a No. 2 vs. 3 game is an annual occurrence in Starkville, which it quite clearly is not. Of course, he did coach in quite a few of them at Florida. But it will be interesting to see how Mississippi State’s players handle the unprecedented attention. It helps that they’re an older team.

That ’07 USF overreaction still lingers in the back of my mind and may contribute to why I haven’t fully jumped on the Bulldogs’ bandwagon. I’m nothing but impressed by Dak Prescott and that offense. I do wonder whether the Bulldogs defense is a bit of a mirage. It’s clear now that LSU is going to struggle to move the ball on a lot of people, and Texas A&M didn’t help itself with nine dropped passes. But hey, I’ll be there in person Saturday for Prescott and the boys to prove me wrong against an Auburn team I’ve long pegged for the playoff. Hopefully we don’t look back one day and similarly wince at that time we deluded ourselves into thinking Mississippi State was the third-best team in the country.

-- James, Calera, Alabama

And the most remarkable part is that Tommie Frazier and the Huskers beat those other three Top 10 teams by 24, 23 and 38 points. What a team.

But yes, I am essentially predicting that very scenario, at least pre-bowl results, in my latest New Year’s Six projections. I have Auburn and Ole Miss in the playoffs and Alabama and Mississippi State in the Orange and Cotton Bowls, respectively, and teams will almost certainly have to finish in the committee’s Top 10 to make the cut-off for those two at-large sports. I don’t think they necessarily have to lose only to one another, either. Provided Texas A&M, LSU or even Arkansas finish with decent records, then two or three wins over other Top 10 teams should be enough to counterbalance a non-Top 10 loss.

Now that you’ve gotten this far, I’m sure many of you outside SEC country are rolling your eyes. I get that. I understand why you might think I’m falling prey to the ubiquitous SEC hype machine. But SEC West teams have thus far gone 21-0 against all teams outside their division. Granted, there were some seemingly-impressive-wins at the time against teams like South Carolina (by Texas A&M), Wisconsin (by LSU) and Texas Tech (by Arkansas) that aren’t turning out to be the caliber we thought they’d be, but that’s the sample size we have to work with at this point. So when Mississippi State and Auburn crush an LSU team that beat one of the more respected teams in the Big Ten, there’s more than just SEC hype playing a factor in their high rankings.

After last weekend’s results, who do you think has the best chance to represent the Pac-12 in the playoff? A related, but not identical question: Who do you think looks like the best team based on what we’ve seen so far? I’m by no means assuming that the Pac-12 will have a representative in the playoff at this point. But, based on both their records and the ambiguous but somewhat useful “eyeball test,” if you had to put $1,000 on one of the Pac-12 teams in the College Football Playoff next week, who would it be?

-- Letizia, Salt Lake City, Utah

Who has the best chance? Nobody that played in last weekend’s games. Who’s looked like the best team so far? The Oregon team that beat Michigan State by 19. But that team’s not currently on the field. Who would I put $1,000 on? Can I give it to Katy Perry instead and let her wager?

As Bruce and I talked about at length this week on The Audible — which you should be listening to if you’re not already — as competitive as that league is, there’s no team as presently constituted that I could see making it through without taking another blow or two and thus eliminating itself from playoff contention. But teams do change.

If Stanford’s talented but undisciplined offensive line starts jelling, the Cardinal, already boasting the nation’s top-ranked defense, could wind up winning the league. But they’ve already got two losses. If Oregon can beat UCLA this week and gets back injured tackle Jake Fisher sooner than later, it could win the league. The erratic Bruins certainly have enough talent to win the league, but their own bad offensive line assures they’ll suffer at least one more bad loss.

And if all those guys keep stubbing their toes, the door may be open to Utah or Arizona. One of those five teams will wind up the champ. (Yeah, I know, nice of me to narrow it down.) But that champ could be 10-3 by the time everyone gets done cannibalizing each other.

Your book, "Bowls, Polls, and Tattered Souls: Tackling the Chaos and Controversy That Reign over College Football" is a great read. I am a fan of this Ole Miss team and it would be fun to watch them win the national title. If they do, would you need to edit that chapter in your book, changing from Ole Miss to another team? Would the Iowa Hawkeyes be that team?

-- Vomo, West Des Moines, Iowa

Well first of all, thank you, and if you enjoyed that book, may I suggest another more timely one called The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff? Oct. 28 will be here soon.

I believe Vomo is referring to something I coined the Ole Miss-Clemson Syndrome, which is “the phenomenon by which fans of historically second-tier programs delude themselves into thinking that one isolated period of greatness . . . is more representative of their team's rightful place in the sport's hierarchy than its other one hundred or so years of football." And Ole Miss got on there specifically for firing David Cutcliffe a year after he won 10 games. Three coaches later, the Rebels seemingly have their guy at last in Hugh Freeze, and if he were to win a national title, or even earn a playoff berth, then yes, Ole Miss fans’ expectations would be justifiably altered forever.

But I’m not sure why you’d expect Iowa to replace them. If anything, Iowa has whatever the polar opposite of Ole Miss-Clemson Syndrome is called. Its coach can keep going 8-4 for eternity and Hawkeyes fans are perfectly fine with it. I can think of no comparable example so I hereby dub this condition Iowa Disorder.

-- Sharath, Columbus, Ohio

But the good news is young teams generally get better. I fully expect to see Harris develop over the course of the season, and those overmatched defenders may lack experience but, according to the recruiting rankings at least, they’re not short on talent. I’ve seen some people already suggesting that this is the beginning of the end for Miles, which is incredibly premature. First of all, he’s had down seasons before. The Tigers went 3-5 in the SEC in 2008 due in large part to poor quarterback play. They were back in the Top 20 by the next season. Second of all, any coach would kill to have Harris, Leonard Fournette, Malachi Dupree and Trey Quinn on hand for the next three years. But they’re freshmen. To win big in the SEC you need juniors and seniors, too.

Sir, I would appreciate it if you would mention how good Texas' defense is. No one seems to realize that they just shut down the nation's best offense (Baylor) for an entire half of play, as they did the offenses of UCLA and BYU earlier this year and Oregon last year. Thank you.

-- Josh, location unknown

Texas’ defense is good.

Stewart, it seems everyone in the media is down on Florida State, but is it because of how good FSU was last year? It would appear that FSU is being rated against last year's team, and not what is going on this year in college football. FSU is undefeated, and it has already beaten two teams currently in the Top 25. Only Auburn can match that. And I don't think FSU has entered a game without at least two starters out yet this season.

-- Bret, Tallahassee, Fla.

Well first of all, let me just say I’m shocked — shocked, I tell you — that a Florida State fan site, and by extension Seminoles fans, feels slighted by the national media. Never have I seen a fan base whose team’s won 21 straight and is still the consensus No. 1 team in the country more defensive than these guys, as encapsulated by the #FSUTwitter hashtag.

But now I’ll do some defending of FSU myself. Yes, absolutely, 2014 FSU is being measured against 2013 FSU, and even Jimbo Fisher would tell you this team is not that team. But we also know more about the broader landscape than we did at the time of our nitpicking. That Oklahoma State team that took FSU to the wire in Week 1 is pretty darn good. That Clemson team the ‘Noles needed overtime to beat, without Winston, is even better with Deshaun Watson playing quarterback. And while FSU has undeniable flaws, as we saw last week, so does everyone else.

Stewart, I just want one time for Alabama to lose a game and be able to look in the mirror and say that the other team beat us or outplayed us and it was not OUR fault that we lost because of penalties, missed field goals or turnovers. I was at the game on Saturday and did not see Ole Miss move the ball five feet besides two long pass plays. But to hear guys like Colin Cowherd say ‘Bama is done’ just shows his ignorance. Because the Tide may not win it all this year but with only losing Cooper and Collins next year and adding AGAIN the No. 1 class we will without question win the entire thing next year.

-- John, Summit, New Jersey

Thanks for the email, but did you mean to send this to Paul Finebaum?

Stewart, with the recent ruling by the NCAA and Big 12 regarding Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma — he must sit out this season and loses a year of eligibility because Texas Tech blocked his release — do you see any change in the future that would affect the great divide between the strict and punitive nature given to athlete transfers and the non-existent consequences for coaches changing jobs? It just seems so hypocritical to hold a walk-on, non-scholarship player to such restrictive transfer requirements when Kliff Kingsbury could pull a Todd Graham, change schools and suffer no restrictions/consequences.

-- Chris A. Perry, Mustang, Oklahoma

Well first of all, there’s nothing the NCAA can do to restrict movement of coaches without losing a lawsuit. It can no sooner tell Kliff Kingsbury when he can or cannot change employers than any other trade association could do to the average Joe. I suppose schools could start putting non-compete clauses in coaches’ contracts, but do that and good luck getting anyone to take the job.

Meanwhile, amidst the ongoing NCAA/Power 5 movement to address issues like cost of attendance and medical care, transfer rules remain one notable area where coaches’ competitive concerns continue to trump basic decency. See the current saga of women’s basketball player Daisha Simmons, whom Alabama is blocking from playing this year at Seton Hall despite having graduated and despite two family members’ illnesses.

There have actually been a couple of recent attempts to reform transfer rules, but if you can believe it, they would have been more restrictive. Many schools want to eliminate altogether the waivers that allow some transfers to play right away due to the indisputably arbitrary nature by which some get approved and others do not.

Personally, I am not in favor of a completely unregulated transfer market where athletes can come and go as they please. It would be too chaotic, and in football, smaller FBS programs would likely become like farm teams to the big boys. The second a new Shane Carden came on the scene at an East Carolina, an ACC or SEC school would recruit him away. But I do wish common sense and basic compassion would prevail more frequently in cases like Mayfield’s, who does not deserve to lose a year of eligibility, or Simmons, whose restrictions are absurd.

Stewart, do you think it’s time for LSU to begin embracing the corn dog slight? Katy Perry ensured that the rest of the country now knows about it, and I don’t see this affront going away anytime soon.

-- Bart Prorok, Auburn, Alabama

I must confess, I was not aware of the LSU-corn dog meme when she initially broke one out. I thought she was just being a zany pop star. Then I did a quick Google search and thought, “Wow, Katy Perry actually knew something about college football that I didn’t.”

Then they played the games Saturday and it turned out she actually knew quite a bit more than I did. My picks have been Hot 'n' Cold this year. I’m still looking for the right Dark Horse. I came so close a couple of weeks ago to making Yale-Army my Upset Special but didn’t pull the trigger. That’s The One That Got Away.

. . . Thank you very much. Be sure to tip your waiter.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.