FSU Football: Five Keys To Victory Against Clemson

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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FSU football will face a huge challenge on Saturday night when they host Clemson. We discuss the five keys to victory for the ‘Noles.

This is a game that for whatever reason the odds makers believe will be relatively close. All the advanced metrics say Clemson should win this game comfortably.

However, we’ve seen Clemson struggle with lesser teams this season as well.

So, the ‘Noles winning this game isn’t out of the questions if they play championship level football. The only problem is they have only played that level of football about 20 percent of the seven games they’ve played.

A win would be huge for FSU and certainly hurt Clemson’s chances of making the four team playoff even if they won the ACC.

Let’s take a look at the five keys to victory for the ‘Noles.

Sep 20, 2014; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Karlos Williams (9) celebrates his overtime touchdown with teammate offensive tackle Bobby Hart (51) in the end zone against the Clemson Tigers for their 23-17 overtime win at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Limit Penalties

This is an area the ‘Noles have struggled ALL season long. They are ranked No. 110 out of 128 teams when it comes to penalties on the season.

They are averaging 8.3 penalties per game for 80 yards. Usually the penalties consist of offensive penalties that put the offense behind the chains and stall drives before they get started.

The FSU offense can’t afford the false start and holding calls against this Clemson defense. They need to stay ahead of the chains so the third and short conversions are manageable, and that’s an area the FSU offense has excelled this season compared to last.

They also need to avoid dumb penalties like roughing the passer in third and long should they get in that type of situation.

Oct 31, 2015; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi (91) celebrates a tackle for a loss against the Syracuse Orange at Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida State won 45-21. Mandatory Credit: Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports

Stop The Run

The FSU defense (or any good defense) is a lot better when they can make teams one-dimensional by stopping the run.

The ‘Noles gave up 215 rushing yards in last year’s matchup, and 107 of those yards came via Deshaun Watson’s legs.

FSU needs to get penetration from its defensive line, particularly up the middle, but maintain their rushing lanes so Watson can’t extend plays.

We saw FSU shut down Miami’s running game and was able to matchup with Miami’s receivers for the most part. Now, Clemson has better receivers than Miami, but I would like FSU’s chances to win those one on one battles.

If FSU can’t stop the run, it doesn’t have a prayer of stopping the play action game.

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Force Clemson To Kick FG’s

This is an area that the FSU defense needs to improve upon considerably compared to last season. The ‘Noles are allowing teams to score 79.31 percent of the time in the red zone.

Opponents are scoring touchdowns 68.97 percent of the time, and field goals 10.34 percent of the time.

The FSU offense has struggled mightily, in particular in the first half, so holding Clemson to field goals if that’s the case again would be crucial.

If FSU gets down 21-3 or 28-7 in the first half, you can pretty much call it a night as I highly doubt they would be able to come back against a defense like Clemson.

It happened in 2012, but Clemson’s defense that season wasn’t anywhere near this unit.

Oct 15, 2016; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Deondre Francois (12) leaps over Wake Forest Demon Deacons linebacker Thomas Brown (26) during the game at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t Turn The Ball Over

Deondre Francois and company have done a solid job of protecting the ball. They turned the ball over nine times all season.

The good thing?

A whopping six of those turnovers came in two games.

The concern?

Four of those turnovers came in their last outing against Wake Forest. FSU football simply can’t afford to give an opponent like Clemson extra possession.

Clemson is a turnover prone team, and hopefully the FSU defense will be able to turn the tide at least once or twice.

Nov 28, 2015; Columbia, SC, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Wayne Gallman (9) runs for a big gain past South Carolina Gamecocks safety T.J. Gurley (20) in the first half of the game at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Limit Third Down Conversions

The FSU defense needs to improve on limiting teams on third down conversion opportunities. They’re allowing team to convert third downs at a 39.53 percent clip which is good for No. 68 nationally.

Clemson ate FSU’s lunch here last season, converting 7 of 19 third downs and gaining 29 first downs during the game.

The FSU defense gave up 512 yards of total offense while allowing 6.02 yards per play. That’s not a bad average per play, but the defense being on the field for 85 plays was a big concern.

It was one of the reasons Clemson was able to pull away late and win by 10 points.

Oct 10, 2015; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Jimbo Fisher smiles as he waves to fans after their game against the Miami Hurricanes at Doak Campbell Stadium. The Florida State Seminoles won 29-24. Mandatory Credit: Phil Sears-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

The FSU offense is one of the best offenses in the nation when it can get out of its own way. That’s why I have penalties listed first and the rest of the keys being geared towards the defense.

Since the defense has been the weakest link in the chain most of the season. However, I’ll admit the FSU offense needs to find some extra gears this week as well.

These are all things FSU is capable of doing. In fact, they’ have a couple of games this season where the FSU offensive line went two games without a false start penalty.

They usually don’t turn the ball over.

FSU isn’t great against the run (No. 60 nationally), so it’ll be a challenge on Saturday night. However, the Clemson offensive line has been shaky at times too.

I dreamed that FSU scored a touchdown on its first offensive possession, a short yardage run, and then I woke up.

So FSU has that going for them too! Enjoy the game and be sure to check Chop Chat for all the post-game analysis and commentary.