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FOX Four: Miss. State leads FSU, Ole Miss, Baylor in playoff race
Welcome to the FOX Four.
To prepare for the inaugural College Football Playoff, we’ve assembled our own 13-member committee that will present its ranking of the top teams after each week from now through the end of the season.
How it works: Each member will submit an individual top 10, which we’ll compile to get an average score and then publish our official FOX Four rankings from highest to lowest (average score in parentheses). Though this ranking puts special emphasis on the first four teams – our current playoff picks after the most recent week of the season – we’ll list a top 10 so you can see how the committee has prioritized the second batch of teams that could impact the playoff discussion.
Number of first-place votes will break ties. If two teams have the same number of first-place votes, we’ll proceed to the subsequent place until the tie is broken.
Our 13-member committee: Tim Brando, Charles Davis, Bruce Feldman, Joey Harrington, Joel Klatt, Matt Leinart, Stewart Mandel, Ryan Nece, Petros Papadakis, Brady Quinn, Rob Stone, Clay Travis and Dave Wannstedt.
"We know fans want transparency in their playoff rankings," said committee chairman Stewart Mandel. "Not only will you see our Top 10 each week but you'll get explanations from our committee members why the teams are ranked where they are."
Below the top 10, look for brief analysis from college football analyst Coy Wire on one team primed to rise and one ready to fall in the rankings.
Next Saturday on FOX Sports 1 (all times ET): No. 4 Baylor at West Virginia (noon), No. 15 Oklahoma State at No. 12 TCU (4 p.m.) and Washington at No. 9 Oregon (8 p.m.).
To get all FOX Sports college football content delivered to you, follow CFB on FOX on Twitter and like our Facebook page.
Previous FOX Four rankings: Week 6
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1) MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (9.73)
Mississippi State vaults to the top spot in the FOX Four after beating Auburn in Week 7, leaving little doubt about who has been the most impressive team so far. “There is no argument about what team has the strongest resume to this point in the season,” Joel Klatt said. “Dak Prescott has put up Heisman-like numbers reminiscent of Tim Tebow and Cam Newton.”
Said Brady Quinn: “Prescott is playing like the best player in college football. He is the driving force of the Mississippi State offense and carrying his undefeated team. With the absence of Todd Gurley, it appears Dak is now the favorite for the Heisman.”
Auburn was the third consecutive top-10 team MSU has taken down, which can be a little misleading given the first two – LSU and Texas A&M – aren’t anywhere close to top-10 teams right now. But as Bruce Feldman points out, “Even if LSU and A&M don't seem as formidable as they did a few weeks ago, winning at Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night is still nothing to dismiss.”
With a bye week coming up and then games against Kentucky, Arkansas and UT-Martin before a trip to Tuscaloosa, “I think Mississippi State is undefeated when they go on the road to Alabama,” Clay Travis said.
2) FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8.18)
The Seminoles come in at No. 2 and provide an interesting dilemma, as they haven’t been the second-most impressive team this season and yet they’re the defending national champions and have won 22 straight games. “Champs until beaten, and I believe that,” Matt Leinart says. “They have found ways to win week in and week out.” The 'Noles beat Syracuse 38-20 on the road, and “the win was more decisive than the final score,” said Ryan Nece. The defense had three picks, and Jameis Winston completed 30 of 36 passes.
Now comes a real test. Said Charles Davis: “Is it 1993? Notre Dame and Florida State will clash in one of the top games of the season, this time in Tallahassee on Saturday night. The winner will argue they should be the No. 1 team in the country.”
How much you believe in the 'Noles probably depends on how much you trust Winston to stay out of off-field trouble and how much you believe in the defense. A note on the latter from Klatt: The only game FSU gave up 400-plus yards last season was to Auburn in the national championship; that’s happened three times so far in 2014. Tim Brando, who ranked FSU No. 3 in his poll, is among those who believe the Magnolia State schools should both be ranked higher than FSU as of now. Then again, FSU can always point back to the longest winning streak in college football.
3) OLE MISS REBELS (8.09)
Outside of Mississippi State, Ole Miss might have had the most impressive win of Week 7 by going to College Station and dominating the Aggies. “It’s a tough call between Mississippi State and Ole Miss for No. 1, but I gave the Bulldogs the edge because they’ve been so dominant against three straight quality opponents,” Stewart Mandel said. “Ole Miss’ defense is ridiculously good. I would not be surprised if the Rebels move up to my No. 1 seed soon.”
Mandel isn’t the only one praising the Rebs’ defense. Dave Wannstedt and Nece both called it the best defense in the country, while Wannstedt, who ranked Ole Miss No. 4, noted QB Bo Wallace and the offense keep exceeding expectations. Petros Papadakis had Ole Miss fifth in his poll but says a win over Tennessee will position the Rebels to replace the FSU-Notre Dame loser in his top four. Rob Stone put the Rebs second and said, “I gave Ole Miss a week to earn my trust. They have it. All Ole Miss did was drop the opening 21 points on A&M, and yet it was their defense that has me believing they earn this lofty spot.”
With Tennessee, LSU and Auburn the next three up, there’s no time for them to look too far ahead, but the rest of us have already circled that game at the end of the year. “The Rebels followed up the biggest win in school history by demolishing Texas A&M in front of the largest crowd to ever see an SEC football game,” Travis said. “I'd say that's one hell of an encore performance. The Egg Bowl is the new Iron Bowl.”
4) BAYLOR BEARS (7.73)
Baylor came from 21 points down in the fourth quarter at home to beat TCU and keep its undefeated season alive. Said Leinart: “Their win against TCU is more impressive than Ole Miss’ wins against 'Bama and Texas A&M. With Oklahoma looking less than stellar, Baylor is in the Big 12 driver’s seat.”
Said Mandel: “In fact, it was a very tough call between Baylor and ND for No. 4. Give credit to Baylor for its comeback, but usually giving up 58 points at home is not a good thing. Still, TCU is better right now than Stanford, ND’s best opponent so far.”
As Quinn notes, Baylor has a couple of interesting tests coming against West Virginia and at Oklahoma, two teams that are capable of hanging offensively and might be able to do just enough defensively to slow the Bears. Overall, Baylor could get knocked for its weak schedule, but as long as it keeps winning, it will be in the playoff. “I love how they faced late adversity and rallied for the win,” Stone said. “I still think they have a good shot to be No. 1 or No. 2 in November.”
5) NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (5.91)
The Irish survived a potential trap game at home in Week 7, beating North Carolina 50-43, and now can freely look forward to Florida State. Win that one, and they’ll clearly jump into the top four. But for now, there are some questions. “The Irish remain undefeated, but it's hard to turn a blind eye to their turnover issues,” Quinn said. “On the bright side, they have not played their best football yet. Everett Golson must do a better job of taking care of the football, and their defense needs to provide better coverage in the back end if they keep bringing all-out ‘house’ blitzes.”
Said Feldman: “The Stanford win is the best thing on their resume. Everett Golson has cooled of late, though with nine turnovers in the past three games, a bad sign heading into the huge FSU game.”
Brando said it’s appropriate to rank Notre Dame fifth right now, but “the eye test after last week already suggests one-loss teams Georgia, Oregon and Auburn are better than Notre Dame.”
One way or another, the vast differences in opinion on the Irish will be cleared up a bit after the trip to FSU. The Irish don’t have to win to remain in the playoff race, but they probably can’t lose big and still feel confident about their case.
6) OREGON DUCKS (4.27)
After losing to Arizona two weeks ago, Oregon jumps back into the playoff race by dominating UCLA on the road. Said Leinart: “They are healthier up front, and it showed against UCLA. They ran the ball extremely well, and Marcus Mariota was his usual self. If they get through UW next week, the Stanford game will be for all the marbles in the Pac-12 North division.”
Davis called the Oregon-UCLA game on FOX and said it was the best the Ducks have looked since beating Michigan State in early September (he called that one, too). “The running game re-emerged, the O-line played its best game of the year and Mariota was simply splendid in guiding his team to a 42-10 lead into the fourth quarter.”
The Ducks’ inclusion in the playoff could come down to how the selection committee views Oregon’s loss to Arizona. Said Klatt: “The committee has said that they will evaluate which players were available due to injury at certain points of the season. Jake Fisher, a high-round NFL prospect at offensive tackle, was injured and did not play against Arizona. They still have one of the best three or four wins of the season over Michigan State, so they're my best one-loss team.”
If that one loss is all Oregon surrenders this season, Papadakis says that should earn them a playoff spot.
7) AUBURN TIGERS (3.55)
Auburn was a Week 7 victim, but the Tigers still seem to have the benefit of the doubt. “I know Mississippi State won on Saturday, but did anyone else watching this game still think Auburn would win the majority of the games these two teams played on a neutral site?” said Travis, who ranked Auburn No. 5 in his poll. “Maybe I'm an idiot, but I did.”
If the Tigers’ only loss is on the road in Starkville, they won’t get dinged too much by the committee. Their four turnovers against MSU were concerning, but Gus Malzahn’s team still has loads of talent. Of the one-loss teams, Leinart likes Auburn the most. If Auburn can survive the rest of its schedule, it will certainly be deserving of one of the top four spots, because that road is daunting.
Said Travis: “Auburn's used up its mulligan now and still has games at Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama left on the schedule. Damn.”
8) ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (2.82)
This Alabama team does not look like the kind we’ve become accustomed to under Nick Saban. Still, the Crimson Tide survived their trip to Arkansas in Week 7, and that might be all that matters in a season where top teams are falling every week.
“It was not pretty, but the Crimson Tide found a way to win by blocking an extra point and getting a late interception from star safety Landon Collins in a one-point win at revamped Arkansas,” Davis said. The Tide get Texas A&M at home next week, which looked like a much tougher game only a couple of weeks ago. Four of Alabama’s final six games are at home, and the two road games are at Tennessee and LSU. If Saban’s team continues to win, it will move up and be in the middle of the playoff discussion.
But as Travis says, “Does the opponent really matter right now? 'Bama looked like a very average football team on Saturday night.”
9) MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (2.00)
The Spartans are quietly lurking after recovering from their loss at Oregon a month ago. They did not look good against Purdue in Week 7, but they won and moved forward.
Now the Nov. 8 game at home against Ohio State takes on more significance as the Buckeyes continue to win. To have any shot at a playoff berth, Michigan State has to win out and present its case to the committee with a Big Ten title attached. Then it will come down to how the individual committee members value such things.
Joey Harrington is one who places great value on winning your league, as he ranked the Spartans fourth in his poll this week. “I put a lot of stock in winning your conference, no matter what conference it is!”
Other committee members could hold the lack of quality competition the Big Ten against the Spartans when it comes time to pick the field.
10) TCU HORNED FROGS and OKLAHOMA SOONERS (1.09)
TCU and Oklahoma tied for the 10th spot in this week’s FOX Four, with both now looking up at Baylor in the Big 12. The debate will get interesting if Oklahoma beats Baylor in Norman on Nov. 8, with the Horned Frogs already beating the Sooners.
Said Davis about TCU: “A titanic battle in Waco found the Horned Frogs three points shy of victory, but this is a quality team that will continue to contend for the Big 12 title. Never thought we would see the day that TCU would score 58 points and lose. They can’t mope, though, as Oklahoma State visits Fort Worth on Saturday on FOX Sports 1.”
While some may take a positive out of TCU’s loss at Baylor, it’s hard to give OU any kind of credit for struggling to beat Texas, but Klatt has a positive for Sooners fans to cling to: “Hanging on to beat Texas is not all that inspiring until you view it this way: When your team plays poorly, do you still have the playmakers to win the game? The answer for OU is yes.”
That said, as Klatt notes, QB Trevor Knight has to start playing better or else the Sooners will be on their way out of the top 10.
Other teams receiving votes: Georgia (0.45), Arizona (one 10th-place vote).
Teams with top four votes: Mississippi State (13), Florida State (13), Baylor (13), Ole Miss (11), Notre Dame (1), Michigan State (1)
COY WIRE’S ONE UP, ONE DOWN
Trending up: Oregon
After dominating UCLA 42-30, the Ducks play Washington at home. Heisman contender Marcus Mariota showed why he is one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football, throwing for 210 yards and two scores and rushing for 75 yards and two more scores. The Ducks’ offensive line -- which has been peppered with injuries -- was solid and did not allow a sack against the Bruins after allowing 12 in the two previous games. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the victory was that the team did not show any signs of a hangover effect after suffering an upset loss to Arizona the week before. They’ll face a feisty Washington squad, but playing at home, look for the Ducks to hit their stride and move up in the rankings while benefitting from one of the teams ahead of them losing this weekend.
Trending down: Notre Dame
Notre Dame looked bad in a 50-43 home victory over North Carolina last week. Missed tackles, penalties and turnovers on offense combined with a defense that allowed 510 yards may have the Irish second-guessing themselves as they travel to Tallahassee to face the Seminoles. Jameis Winston is coming off his best performance of the season after completing 30 of his 36 passes (83 percent) against Syracuse. The ‘Noles have not yet played to their potential -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- but this type of prime-time game at home may be just what the Florida State needs to challenge them.
