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Forward Pass: Florida State no longer nation's clear No. 1 team
By the time you read this Monday, order will ostensibly be restored in Tallahassee. Jameis Winston will once again be allowed to wear his shoulder pads to a game. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher wasted no time Saturday night declaring the briefly suspended Heisman winner would immediately regain his starting job Monday. The next time Winston wildly celebrates a touchdown with teammates he will likely have thrown it.
Granted, this is dependent on the Heisman winner managing to stay out of trouble between now and Saturday’s game at NC State, which, given the Heisman winner’s track record, is far from a given.
But lost in the Jameis sideshow during Saturday night’s Clemson game -- which, incidentally, should be blamed entirely on resident enabler Fisher for allowing a “suspended” player on the sideline in the first place – is the fact the No. 1 team in the country has not looked the part so far this season. The ‘Noles have now played two games against a pair of opponents, Oklahoma State and Clemson, that most consider to be low-to-fringe Top 25 teams, and gone to the wire – or in Saturday night’s case, overtime – with both.
This is not the 2013 Florida State team that beat its 13 regular-season opponents by an average margin of 28 points. And while the ‘Noles still have plenty of time to work out their kinks, no one should be penciling them in as 2014 national champions anymore.
Obviously, Saturday night’s 23-17 overtime win against Clemson might have played out differently had Winston been under center. The ‘Noles might not have found themselves briefly staring down the barrel of defeat as they did when, with the score still tied, Tigers safety Jadar Johnson returned a Sean Maguire interception to the FSU 26 with 2:14 remaining. Nate Andrews’ subsequent fumble recovery for the ‘Noles averted potential disaster.
But the game might not have been that different, because quarterback was hardly FSU’s biggest problem either Saturday or in that Oklahoma State game. The ‘Noles ran for just 106 yards against the Cowboys and 13 – yes, 13 – against Clemson. A senior-led offensive line that figured to be one of FSU’s biggest strengths instead got manhandled against Vic Beasley and the Tigers’ defensive front, allowing five sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
Ultimately, running back Karlos Williams and that line asserted their will in overtime, with Williams running for 13 and 12 yards to clinch the win after Clemson inexplicably ran a shotgun draw on fourth-and-1 of its earlier possession. Asked afterward if his team should remain No. 1, Fisher replied: “Absolutely. We ain’t lost in 19 straight games. We are No. 1 ‘til somebody beats us.”
Fair enough. But first of all, the first 16 of those 19 straight wins hold no bearing on the 2014 season. In fact, it doesn’t really matter who’s No. 1 until the College Football Playoff selection committee begins meeting in late October. And the ‘Noles have plenty of time to work out their kinks before then. Their next three games will presumably be laughers against NC State, Wake Forest and Syracuse. FSU’s next notable test comes Oct. 18 against visiting Notre Dame, by which point Winston might be back throwing for 400 yards every week and/or it will have rediscovered its running game.
As of today, though, the only real argument why Florida State remains the No. 1 team in the country is that no one else has definitively stepped up and grabbed that mantle. Everyone has their respective issues right now.
Shortly after FSU survived its Clemson scare Saturday night, No. 2 Oregon found itself in an unexpectedly tight game with 1-2 Washington State. It took another Marcus Mariota masterpiece – 21-of-25 for 329 yards and five TDs – to overcome an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed seven sacks and non-existent defense in the Ducks’ 38-31 win.
No. 3 Alabama made a statement with its 42-21 win over visiting Florida, which I wrote about from Tuscaloosa, but not before committing four turnovers and 11 penalties while struggling to establish a run game in the first half. I’m not ready to anoint the Tide No. 1 yet, either.
You could argue the most impressive team to date has been No. 4 Oklahoma, which on Saturday went into hostile Morgantown and took down a competitive West Virginia team, 45-33, behind 242 yards and four touchdowns from true freshman running back Samje Perine. Of course the Sooners also allowed 513 yards to Clint Trickett and the Mountaineers, but that’s sometimes unavoidable against a Dana Holgorsen offense.
I don’t know who the best team in the country is, but I do know this: If Florida State, with Winston, faced Oklahoma or Alabama on a neutral field next week, I wouldn’t pick the ‘Noles. Fortunately for them, though, any potential meeting with those powers won’t come until January.
And, of course, that will happen only if Winston, currently the subject of an ongoing Title IX investigation, remains on the team. All we know for now is he’s once again FSU’s starting quarterback -- provided the school president doesn’t override Fisher on that decision, too.
THERE’S NOTHING LIKE THE SEC WEST
Arkansas coach Bret Bielema, who went 3-9 last year in his debut season, knows his team is markedly improved. Two weeks ago the Razorbacks went on the road and mauled Big 12 foe Texas Tech, 48-27. On Saturday, they throttled one of the nation’s most respected mid-majors, Northern Illinois, 52-14.
And yet on Sunday, when the latest AP and coaches polls came out, Arkansas was the only member of the seven-team SEC West not represented.
“It’s unlike anything else in college football,” Bielema said of the historically stacked division to FOX Sports on Sunday. “I’d like to think we’re a pretty good team even though we’re 3-1, unranked. I think we can hold our own. But in this league, in the West, you’re with a pretty good group of teams.”
The West already boasted five of the AP’s Top 10 teams heading into Week 4 and only elevated its profile in the games that followed. On Thursday, No. 5 Auburn won at No. 20 Kansas State, 20-14. While not a typical prolific offensive performance from coach Gus Malzahn’s team, the Tigers still beat a Top 25 team on the road, holding a Bill Snyder-coached team to 40 rushing yards. And quarterback Nick Marshall made some clutch throws late.
Then on Saturday, previously unproven Mississippi State went to Death Valley and stunned then eighth-ranked LSU, 34-29. Quarterback Dak Prescott (372 total yards, three TDs) and running back Josh Robinson (16 carries, 197 yards, one TD) shredded a previously dominant LSU defense in delivering coach Dan Mullen’s program its first win over a Top 10 team since 2000.
On Sunday, Mississippi State debuted at No. 14 in the AP poll, with LSU dropping to 17th. Which means some team that’s already spent at least one week in the Top 15 is going to wind up finishing no better than sixth in its own division.
Non-Southerners will undoubtedly roll their eyes at what might seem like another case of over-the-top SEC adulation, but remember, LSU opened the season beating Wisconsin, itself currently ranked 19th. So it only makes sense the 4-0 Bulldogs and 3-1 Tigers be higher than that.
Meanwhile, Bielema’s team will attempt to crash the party this weekend when it takes on No. 6 Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas. Arkansas opened the season with a 45-21 loss at Auburn, but still has six games remaining against currently ranked teams.
“We plan on making some noise,” said Bielema. If they do so Saturday, you could well see all seven SEC West teams in the Top 25 come this time next week. He’s right. There’s nothing else like it.
FLORIDA’S TIPPING POINT
Meanwhile, in the SEC East … the past couple of weeks have not been as kind. Tennessee got unsurprisingly humbled at Oklahoma. Defending champ Missouri inexplicably lost at home Saturday to Indiana. And in Tuscaloosa, we learned that Will Muschamp’s Florida Gators are still not close to ready for primetime in their 42-21 loss to Alabama.
Give Florida this much: It managed to be tied with the No. 3 team in the country into the third quarter. But you would not have known it watching the teams play. Alabama thoroughly dominated the Gators on both sides of the ball, outgaining them 645-200, and may well have pitched a shutout if not for four Tide turnovers inside their own 35 (one of which Florida returned for a touchdown).
On the bright side, according to Florida’s postgame media notes, it hadn’t scored 21 points in Tuscaloosa since 1951.
For a coach whose job security is so obviously tenuous, Saturday’s game did not bode well for Muschamp. For one thing, he’s tethered to a quarterback, senior Jeff Driskel, who, for all the reports of his progress under new coordinator Kurt Roper, still looks overwhelmed against top-flight opponents. He went 9-of-28 for 93 yards, and after throwing his second interception, Florida’s offense reverted to its 2011-13 vanilla, power-based approach.
“We have to go back again and evaluate where we are,” Muschamp said when asked about Driskel. “The execution is not where it needs to be.”
Meanwhile, the Gators’ purported strength, their defense, allowed the most yards in school history, eclipsing the 1996 Fiesta Bowl nightmare against Tommie Frazier-led Nebraska.
“It’s a lack of execution,” said Muschamp, “and that comes back on me.”
Sound familiar?
Following a bye, Florida visits rival Tennessee. The Vols haven’t beaten the Gators since 2004 and are still very much rebuilding, and yet, it now seems like a swing game. Win and Florida may still have some hope in the mediocre East. Lose and its coach may well get Zook’d midseason.
THIS WEEK’S BOWL FORECAST
Each week, I'll update my predicted lineup for the New Year’s Six bowls based on the latest week's games.
Peach: Georgia (at-large) vs. East Carolina (Group of 5)
Fiesta: Texas A&M (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
Orange: Clemson (ACC) vs. Alabama (B1G/SEC/ND)
Cotton: Michigan State (Big Ten champ) vs. Baylor (at-large)
Sugar (semifinal): No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 4 Florida State
Rose (semifinal): No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 3 Oregon
It’s the same 12 teams as last week in the same six games, only I swapped Florida State’s and Oklahoma’s seeds. Mind you, at this point I fully expect to see two SEC teams in the playoff field. That league is now a ridiculous 31-3 in non-conference play, including 3-1 against Top 25 foes and 5-2 against the other Power 5 conferences. I just haven’t decided yet who I think that second team will be. I’m guessing I’ll have a much better idea after the SEC’s stacked Oct. 4 lineup of games.
And hey, how about a little love for my preseason East Carolina Group of 5 pick? The Pirates followed up their win over Virginia Tech by taking another ACC foe, North Carolina, to the woodshed, racking up 789 total yards in a 70-41 win. Mind you, the Pirates will need to win their own conference, the American, to even qualify for that spot, but if they do, no other non-power league’s champ will have anything close to ECU’s out-of-conference resume.
I’LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON …
* Running backs. In addition to the aforementioned 242-yard day by Oklahoma’s Perine, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon dropped 253 and five TDs on Bowling Green and Nebraska’s Ameer Abdullah 229 yards on 35 carries against Miami. It won’t be just quarterbacks in New York this year.
* Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon. Even before his game-winning Hail Mary to Austin Hill late Saturday against Cal, the redshirt freshman put on quite the show in leading the Wildcats to 36 fourth-quarter points. He attempted 73 passes, for one. Rich Rod plays to his team’s strengths.
* South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier. After Saturday’s 48-34 win over Vanderbilt, the Ball Coach told ESPN, “It’s embarrassing sometimes how we play.” Then he told reporters it was “one of the worst wins” of his career. It should be a fun week of practice for the Missouri game.
* Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats’ first win of the season was just 21-7 over Western Illinois. Afterward, Fitzgerald vowed that, “My size-12 is going where the sun doesn't shine with this team for the rest of the year.” It should be a fun week of practice for the Penn State game.
* Old Dominion. The FBS newcomer won its first Conference USA game, 45-42, over the defending league champion, Rice. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke, whose name will likely be called in next spring’s draft, threw for 430 yards and five touchdowns. The Monarchs are ascending rapidly.
THIS WEEK’S COACH OF THE YEAR CANDIDATE
Indiana’s Kevin Wilson. The Hoosiers’ fourth-year coach finally got a signature win Saturday when IU went on the road and knocked off reigning SEC East champ Missouri, 31-27. The Hoosiers won despite converting 1 of 14 third downs. “We've been knocking on the door and now you have to knock it down,” said Wilson, whose 2-1 team had lost to Bowling Green just a week earlier.
THIS WEEK’S COACH ON THE HOT SEAT
Michigan’s Brady Hoke. The Wolverines, who suffered a 26-10 home loss to Utah, are just plain bad. Against both Notre Dame and Utah, Michigan did not score an offensive touchdown. In fact, it never entered the red zone. Afterward Hoke brought up the 1998 Michigan team that started 0-2 and won a Big Ten title. That’s fitting, seeing as his offensive approach is stuck in the late ‘90s.
ON TO NEXT WEEKEND
Oof, this is an ugly slate.
Three games we’re most excited for:
* No. 11 UCLA at No. 15 Arizona State (Thursday, 10 ET). The winner takes an early leg up in the Pac-12 South standings, but ASU will likely be without QB Taylor Kelly and UCLA counterpart Brett Hundley’s status is a mystery as well.
* No. 16 Stanford at Washington (Saturday, 4 ET). First-year Huskies coach Chris Petersen makes his Pac-12 debut against the reigning champ, though he feels his sloppy 4-0 team is “not ready” for the step up in competition.
* Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M (Saturday, 3:30 ET). After blowing out Texas Tech and Northern Illinois, the Razorbacks could well run over the Aggies’ shaky D. But A&M’s Kenny Hill could also throw for 500 on Arkansas’ D.
Three games you shouldn’t miss:
* Oregon State at No. 18 USC (Saturday, 10:30 ET). Beavers QB Sean Mannion has flown completely under the radar so far but will play a measuring stick game against a Trojans D ready to show the BC game was an aberration.
* Cincinnati at No. 22 Ohio State (Saturday, 6 ET). Let’s see how much progress J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes offense made since the Virginia Tech game. The Bearcats are a decent team but their defense is far from stout.
* Duke at Miami (Saturday, 7:30 ET). It’s not an exaggeration to say Al Golden’s team, already 0-1 in the ACC, is entering must-win territory. Fans will revolt if the ‘Canes lose to Duke for a second straight year.
One under-the-radar gem:
* Texas at Kansas (Saturday, 4 ET). It took a last-second Case McCoy touchdown drive for the ‘Horns to survive in Lawrence two years ago, and no game is a gimme for this year’s attrition-depleted squad.
Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. His new book, “The Thinking Fan’s Guide to the College Football Playoff,” is now available on Amazon. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.
