Final thoughts ahead of BCS title game

Final thoughts ahead of BCS title game

Published Jan. 10, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

It’s not fair that Auburn and Oregon haven’t played in over a month. It’s insane to think that either of these two are the exact same teams they were in late November. Some will argue that the time off allows everyone to heal up and get healthy. I’d rather have teams in sync and in playing shape.

This is the case every year in the buildup before the national title — the two teams are made out to be more unbeatable than they really were. Remember, Clemson missed a field goal that would’ve forced a second overtime in the war against Auburn, while Cal gagged away a win over Oregon with an illegal procedure call on kicker Giorgio Tavecchio, who stutter-stepped before hitting a 24-yard field goal, and then missed the retry.

It’s this simple. If defensive tackles Nick Fairley and Zach Clayton are huffing and puffing in the first quarter, it’s uh-oh time for Auburn.

It's this simple. If the smallish defensive front is getting flattened early, and Cam Newton and Michael Dyer are pounding away up the middle, it’s uh-oh time for Oregon.

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An Oregon win would be the best thing for college football. It would show that yes, really, someone other than USC can play football on the Left Coast.

After all the nonsensical whining from TCU, Nevada, and other non-BCS programs about how they tried to win one for the “Little Guy,” in a different sort of way, that’s what Oregon is trying to do for all non-SEC schools intimidated by the SEC brand name. The SEC doesn’t lose BCS Championships.

Another SEC win further cements the conference as the only one that truly matters. If Auburn wins in a walk, then for the foreseeable future it’ll be impossible to argue against the idea that the SEC champion deserves to play for the national title no matter what its record is.

Oregon fans, enjoy this. You might be getting the entire offensive backfield back, but the receivers might be an issue and the defensive front seven will be gutted just enough to prevent any dreams of going to New Orleans on Jan. 9, 2012.

Starting the year off against LSU won’t help the cause.

Starting the year off against LSU with Les Miles coaching in Ann Arbor won’t help the cause.

Auburn fans, enjoy this. The running back situation will be special in 2012, but seven players will be gone off the defense, four starters on the offensive line are done, and $180,000 will be tip money for No. 2 in about four months.

Not helping the cause will be as brutal a four-week stretch as anyone in America will have to deal with: at South Carolina, at Arkansas, Florida, at LSU.

Throw in Mississippi State, at Clemson, at Georgia, and Alabama, and suddenly a Jan. 2 bowl doesn’t seem so bad.

Jan. 1, 2012 is on a Sunday. Yes, college football fans, your big day will be the second day of the new year.

In case you care, the Rose and Sugar will be on the 2nd, the Orange will be on the 3rd, the Fiesta on the 4th, and the BCS Championship will be on the 9th.

Sorry. I know, they haven’t kicked the ball off yet in Glendale and I’m doing bowl projections for 2012. Call it the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl glaze. I'm back now.

Don’t be shocked if Auburn's performance has the exact same look and feel of Ohio State’s 2010 Rose Bowl win over the Ducks.

It's been lost in the shuffle. How did Ohio State manage to hang on against the Hogs?

I’m 98 percent comfortable with the idea that Oregon and Auburn would beat TCU without a problem. I’m 89 percent comfortable with the idea that Auburn would beat Boise State. I’m 4 percent comfortable with the idea that Oregon would beat the Broncos.

One big key: Can Gene Chizik and the Auburn coaching staff get in the officials' heads when it comes to substitutions? If Oregon is worrying about the timing and the tempo, it'll get rattled.

Time makes everyone forget. The silence over the controversy surrounding Newton and his agent, Cecil, has been deafening.

Don’t forget, JaMarcus Russell was supposedly weighing his NFL options before the 2007 Sugar Bowl. One huge performance against a miserable Notre Dame secondary, and Russell was the No. 1 overall pick. Vince Young supposedly couldn’t throw at an NFL level (and still can’t), but no one seemed to care after what he did to USC. The same could be true for Newton. If he has an above-average game and Auburn wins, watch Carolina take a really, really hard look at him with the top pick. Blaine Gabbert is the I Think We Can Win pick. Cam Newton is the I Want To Win Multiple Super Bowls shot for the stars.

I want to see if Oregon can slug Auburn in the mouth at any point. The finesse attack needs to at least threaten that it can work up the middle from time to time, and I don’t think it can.

While I’ve been saying from well before the matchup was even announced is that I think Auburn will win in a walk, unless Darron Thomas has the game of his life. What have we learned from the BCS Championships? Running backs don’t really make the difference; it comes down to which quarterback owns the game. Thomas, the Auburn secondary is there for the picking. Make it happen.

Oregon can play a perfect game. LaMichael James can get rolling, the points can be flying on the board, and the tempo can be exactly the way Chip Kelly wants it, and none of it will matter if Cam is Cam.

While this will be Auburn and Newton’s game, everyone will be talking about Oregon LB Casey Matthews on Tuesday.

Considering his first name, Chip Kelly’s agent has to be fired if there isn’t some endorsement deal on the table with the Tostitos people.

Gene Chizik, national championship head coach. Iowa State fans are right to ask for their money back.

However, there hasn’t been much screaming from Charles Barkley about Turner Gill lately.

Prediction: Auburn 38, Oregon 26.

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