Bowl projections: Predicting the playoff, every bowl game after Week 6

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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There’s a wide range of confidence levels in SI.com's bowl projections after Week 6. For instance, you probably won’t be surprised to see Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson in the projected College Football Playoff field. Washington claiming the fourth spot isn’t exactly shocking either.

But then there are the projections that after six weeks of games still feel very much like guesswork. Like picking which Pac-12 team will play in the Rose Bowl if Washington does make the playoff. A Stanford team coming off two blowout defeats? Washington State, which lost its first two games of the season, including one to an FCS foe, but has been hot ever since? Or Utah, which lost to a Cal squad that fell to lowly Oregon State this week?

And then there’s sorting out how the ACC Coastal will play out after Miami lost to Florida State and Virginia Tech thumped North Carolina. Despite these difficulties, we do our best to take the information we have and make informed predictions. At least some things are certain: 6–0 Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Texas A&M, Washington and Western Michigan will be bowling this winter.

A reminder about how the college football postseason works: The playoff selection committee will choose the teams for the two playoff semifinals—the Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl this year—and the four other marquee bowls that are part of the New Year’s Six. The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion must play in one of those six games, and other games, such as the Rose Bowl, have conference tie-ins.

The remaining bowl games are also governed by agreements with the 10 FBS conferences, though if a league doesn’t produce enough bowl-eligible teams to fulfill all of its tie-ins, that bowl can select another conference’s representative. In some cases, leagues will pool together their bowl tie-ins to create more flexibility. The Music City Bowl, for example, can choose either an ACC or Big Ten team to face an SEC opponent.

And lastly, just because a bowl may be designated to have a particular order of selection among a conference’s teams doesn’t mean it has to adhere exactly to the standings. The Alamo Bowl’s second choice among Pac-12 teams, for example, does not require it to choose the No. 2 available team from the Pac-12 standings or from the playoff committee’s rankings. Other factors, such as location, the matchup, the size of a school’s fan base and the willingness of that fan base to travel, can influence bowls’ decisions.

New Year's Six bowls

Other bowls

*Replacement team

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