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Against almost all logic and available evidence, some Las Vegas oddsmakers have made Alabama a slight favorite over LSU in Monday night's BCS Championship Game.
Though the teams appeared to be evenly matched when they played Nov. 5, thinking of the Tigers as underdogs does not reflect the reality of this college football season.
LSU, after all, beat Alabama head-to-head in Tuscaloosa, went 13-0 against one of the toughest schedules in recent memory and gets to play the championship in its backyard at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, just 80 miles from campus.
If LSU wins, having already beaten champions of the Rose Bowl (Oregon), Orange Bowl (West Virginia) and Cotton Bowl (Arkansas), it’s a season that will be worthy of consideration among the most impressive in history.
And yet, the betting public and much of the sentiment on the ground here this week tilts toward Alabama lifting the crystal trophy as national champions.
The reason? Nick Saban.
No name in college football elicits as much confidence, respect and fear as Saban, who won a national title at LSU in 2003, fled to the NFL, then returned in 2007 and quickly restored Alabama to powerhouse status.
And with that mystique has come an innate confidence that no matter what happened during the season, Alabama is going to adjust. That Alabama used its 43-day layoff to devise a scheme that would stop LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson and find some sort of weakness in the seemingly impenetrable Tigers defense. That in a game between two teams of roughly equal ability, Alabama has the better coach.
All of which means Saban is coaching not just for a championship tonight against LSU’s Les Miles, but a legacy as well.
No matter what happens here, nobody can take away Saban’s pair of national titles. He’ll be one of the pre-eminent figures in college football for as long as he decides to coach. Saban is so good and so driven that if somehow he decided to take the Duke job tomorrow, I’m convinced he’d have Duke competing for national titles within five years.
But if Saban loses this one on the sport’s biggest stage, he’s got a problem — a Les Miles problem — that will put a permanent dent in the aura he has carried to New Orleans.
“This game’s not about me,” Saban said. “It’s not about me for me. OK? It doesn’t define who I am. It’s about a lot of other things that are a lot bigger than me or anything that’s ever happened to me.”
Sure, there’s plenty at stake here for these schools and fan bases, whose football programs define their institutions in many ways. But in this sport, coaches matter more than anything. It took years for Alabama to realize its traditions and facilities didn’t amount to much if Mike Shula was in charge. Since 2007, when they dumped $32 million on Saban’s doorstep, Alabama fans have been confidently able to say they had the best coach and eventually the best program in the nation.
That no longer will be true, however, if LSU beats Alabama again. How can Saban be the best coach in college football if he’s not even the best coach in his own conference?
Despite winning his own national championship at LSU in 2007, Miles often was underestimated as a coach prior to this season. In fact, there was some thought at the start of 2010 that he was on the hot seat at LSU, a notion he erased by going 11-2.
Even in some of those close wins, however, Miles failed to enhance his reputation. Too often, he merely was considered a riverboat gambler who could call illogical trick plays, mismanage clock situations in close games and come out smelling like a rose far more often than he deserved.
But the numbers don’t lie. If LSU wins Monday, it’s two national titles each, three straight wins for Miles over Saban and a 4-2 record all-time. Only one other coach, Tommy Tuberville, has won more than he lost against Saban in the 10 years he’s coached in the SEC.
No wonder LSU fans have gotten over the fact that Saban, who kick-started their program’s rise to national prominence, now coaches their rival.
“I never felt that there was a shadow or something that needed to be done,” Miles said.
That’s probably a bit disingenuous; when Miles took over at LSU, the specter of Saban easily could have eaten him alive. But now, Miles has a chance to surpass what Saban accomplished, and he can do it by outcoaching him again.
That’s right. In their first meeting this year, Miles outcoached Saban. In a tough, physical, low-scoring game, Miles stuck to the script, played field position and let his special teams do the work. Saban got too cute, trying impossibly long field goals and blowing a chance to take the lead on — of all things — a trick play that went awry when receiver Marquis Maze threw an interception in the red zone.
It was almost as if Saban were trying to beat Miles at his own game, an uncharacteristically emotional response to being frustrated by a rival. That’s what makes the rematch so fascinating: What’s the line between adjusting and overthinking, especially with so much time to prepare?
For better or worse, the spotlight will be on Miles and Saban even more than it was in November.
“I think maybe overanalyzation can be counterproductive,” Miles said.
So here’s a chance to make it quite simple. Beat Alabama one more time, and not only will Miles win his second national title, he’ll puncture the mystique of unbeatable Nick Saban for good.
