2016-17 Bowl Projections Before Championship Weekend

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:36 p.m. ET

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Only a few games remain before the postseason. Here are our projections for what the bowl calendar will look like this season.

Eight conferences have championship games this weekend. The Big 12 and Sun Belt wrap up their regular seasons. On the first weekend of December, we will finally see the postseason calendar settle itself out.

Five teams — BYU, Eastern Michigan, Old Dominion, Navy, and Hawaii — have already accepted invitations and are locked in. The other 75 slots are all up for grabs this weekend as a few teams aim to seal up bowl eligibility and we wait to see how many 5-7 teams are needed to fill out the schedule.

The postseason expands again this year to encompass 40 different bowl games. So click ahead to see who we project will play in the largest bowl calendar to date.

Nov 12, 2016; Reno, NV, USA; San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey (19) stiff arms Nevada Wolf Pack corner back Elijah Mitchell (28) as he runs for a first down in the first quarter of their NCAA football game at MacKay Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

December 17

BEST GAME: Memphis v. Troy

Memphis lost Justin Fuente to the Virginia Tech job, Paxton Lynch to the NFL, and still managed to finish with eight wins. They’re projected to take on a Troy team that could win a share of the Sun Belt title for the first time in six years, in a matchup that features the most combined wins of any pairing on this opening day of bowl season.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Donnel Pumphrey (RB/San Diego State)

Pumphrey finished second in the country in rushing yards, racking up 159 yards per game. The Aztec senior broke Marshall Faulk’s school records this season, though his production tapered off in the last two games of the regular season — both losses for San Diego State. Pumphrey will hope to conclude his college career strong against Appalachian State.

Jan 4, 2015; Mobile, AL, USA; Toledo Rockets quarterback Logan Woodside (11) drops back to pass against the Arkansas State Red Wolves during the second quarter of the 2015 GoDaddy Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

December 19

BEST GAME: Toledo v. Tulsa

Given that this is the only game, the showdown at Marlins Park between the Rockets and the Golden Hurricane is the best thing you’ll have going on this Monday evening of Christmas week. Tulsa was a surprise runner-up in the tough AAC West, while Toledo finished behind only Western Michigan in the MAC West.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Logan Woodside (QB/Toledo)

Logan Woodside ranked second nationally in passing efficiency, throwing for over 300 yards per game. The Rockets junior threw more touchdown passes than any other quarterback in the country, finishing with 43 passing touchdowns and just nine interceptions. Woodside has thrown at least three TD passes in every game this season, and look for him to do so again against a Golden Hurricane team giving up 31.5 points per outing.

Oct 28, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; South Florida Bulls running back D’Ernest Johnson (2) celebrates a touchdown with offensive lineman Cameron Ruff (74) in the second half against the Navy Midshipmen at Raymond James Stadium. South Florida Bulls won 52-45. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

December 20

BEST GAME: Western Kentucky v. South Florida

South Florida missed out on a chance to play for the AAC championship after losing to Temple in October, but they’ve got a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Quinton Flowers and boast wins over Navy, Memphis, and the ACC’s Syracuse. Western Kentucky managed to return to the C-USA championship game with a chance to defend their title, and should have no trouble earning a trip to Florida this year.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Mike White (QB/Western Kentucky)

White was among the quarterbacks we highlighted as possible Group of Five NFL picks earlier this season, and he lived up to the billing in 2016. Averaging just over 300 yards per game, White threw for 31 touchdowns and tossed only five interceptions all season. The Hilltopper quarterback finished fifth nationally in passing efficiency and was a big reason why WKU managed to return to reach bowl eligibility, much less the C-USA title game.

Oct 29, 2016; Laramie, WY, USA; Wyoming Cowboys defensive end Josiah Hall (53) signals for a safety during the fourth quarter at War Memorial Stadium. The Cowboys beat the Broncos 30-28. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

December 21

BEST GAME: BYU v. Wyoming

The longtime rivalry between BYU and Wyoming has laid dormant since the Cougars left the Mountain West for football independence after the 2010 season, but there is no love lost between these two schools. BYU finished with the best record of any independent in 2016, while Wyoming stole away the MWC Mountain title from Boise State and Air Force and could be a conference champ when they face their old nemesis in San Diego.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Brian Hill (RB/Wyoming)

Wyoming’s best player was also among the top running backs in the nation in 2016. Hill finished in the top five in rushing yards per game, averaging nearly 140 yards per outing, while his 21 rushing touchdowns ranked third nationally. Even despite catching just five passes and returning one kickoff, the pure runner finished in the top 15 in the country in all-purpose yardage. If the Pokes manage to knock off BYU for the first time since 2003, Hill will be a big reason why they prevail.

Nov 25, 2016; Colorado Springs, CO, USA; Air Force Falcons linebacker Haji Dunn Jr. (34) dives on a loose ball after a Broncos fumble ahead of Boise State Broncos tight end Chase Blakley (86) and offensive lineman Mario Yakoo (66) in the fourth quarter at Falcon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

December 22

BEST GAME: Ohio v. Air Force

This is the next-to-last night of the bowl season with just one game on. The Smurf Turf of Albertsons Stadium will be far more familiar to Air Force, as they play biennially in Boise as part of their regular divisional schedule, but Ohio cannot be ignored. The Bobcats fielded a top-25 scoring defense in 2016, while Air Force reached nine wins thanks to a second straight upset of Boise State that kept the Broncos out of the MWC championship game.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Air Force offensive line

The Falcons are ranked fourth nationally in rushing, averaging over 320 yards per game. They have done this despite lacking a single 1000-yard rusher on their roster. The top man in the stats, Jacobi Owens, finished the regular season averaging just 65 yards per game. A lot of the credit for Air Force’s success on the ground goes to their offensive line, which has consistently paved the way for strong showings from the committee backfield. They’ll be tested by an Ohio defense that ranked fifth nationally in rushing yards allowed.

Nov 26, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Navy Midshipmen quarterback Zach Abey (9) carries the ball for 55 yards against the SMU Mustangs during the second half at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

December 23

BEST GAME: Navy v. Mississippi State

With an extra opening from the glutted bowl schedule, Navy will likely get the opportunity to play a Power Five school despite missing out on the New Year’s Six bowl berth to Western Michigan. Of course, that opponent will be a five-win Mississippi State team that lost three games by a field goal or less and another by one touchdown. The Midshipmen could reach 12 wins for the first time in school history by beating the Bulldogs.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Ja’Von Rolland-Jones (De/Arkansas State)

Rolland-Jones was one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the country, finishing the year tied for fifth nationally with 11 sacks. He also averaged one and a half tackles for loss per game, among the top 20 in the FBS in that stat. The redshirt junior should have a field day against Central Michigan, which allowed nearly three sacks per game during the regular season. Rolland-Jones could put himself on NFL watch lists with a solid performance in his final college game.

Dec 24, 2014; Honolulu, HI, USA; A general view before the Hawaii Bowl between the Rice Owls and Fresno State Bulldogs at Aloha Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

December 24

BEST GAME: Toledo v. Tulsa

Your traditional Christmas Even gift is a mid-major matchup live from sunny Honolulu. This year the hometown Rainbow Warriors reached six wins and will represent the Mountain West. Their opponents, Middle Tennessee, upset Missouri and finished the regular season with eight wins. The Blue Raiders beat C-USA West champ Louisiana Tech by four points and fell by only one point to East champ Western Kentucky, but November losses to UTSA and Marshall took them out of the running in the conference race.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Richie James (WR/Middle Tennessee)

Brent Stockstill threw for 2800 yards this season, and Richie James was on the receiving end for more than half of that total yardage. The sophomore from Sarasota, Florida finished the regular season averaging more than 15 yards per catch, and he hauled in 11 touchdown receptions to average nearly six points per game. The Rainbow Warriors had a top-50 passing defense, but James could prove too much to handle even on their home turf.

Sep 18, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston College Eagles defensive lineman Harold Landry (8) tackles Florida State Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook (4) during the first half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

December 26

BEST GAME: Georgia Tech v. Houston

How will the Cougars respond to falling from a possible New Year’s Six berth to a Boxing Day matchup in St. Petersburg? More importantly, how will they respond to losing head coach Tom Herman, who bolted ship for Texas after the regular season ended? The Yellow Jackets overcame their own adversity, winning five of their last six to finish 8-4 after a three-game skid in late September and early October. Houston is the better team on paper, but the dynamics of a team in flux could tip the scales to the Power Five school.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Harold Landry (DE/Boston College)

On a day when plenty of defensive stars are likely to shine, it might just be Landry who shines brightest. While Ed Oliver, Zach Cunningham, and Marquel Lee are all forces in the pass rush, Landry has outplayed them over the course of the 2016 season. Nobody has racked up more sacks than the junior defensive end, and he also ranks fourth in tackles for loss. Most significantly, on his 39 plays in the backfield he has caused the opponent to lose an average of more than seven yards per sack/TFL. Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for it in Shreveport.

Oct 15, 2016; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Jeremy McNichols (13) scores a touchdown during second half action against the Colorado State Rams at Albertsons Stadium. Boise State defeats Colorado State 28-23. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

December 27

BEST GAME: Iowa v. Washington State

Last year Iowa was the surprise team, snatching the Big Ten’s spot in the Rose Bowl after winning the West over Wisconsin and Nebraska. This year, Washington State nearly stole away the Pac-12 North from rival Washington. Neither made it to a New Year’s Six bowl this season, but they have been at peak performance throughout November. If they can return from the break with the same intensity, this showdown in San Diego could be an instant classic.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Jeremy McNichols (RB/Boise State)

Three of the top five running backs in the country played in the Mountain West this season, and McNichols might be the most versatile and dynamic of the trio. The all-purpose back for the Broncos has averaged over 180 yards per game, finishing with over 2000 combined rushing and receiving yards and adding four kick returns over the course of the year. He provides a valuable safety outlet for young quarterback Brett Rypien, and could gash a Baylor defense allowing over 200 rushing yards per game to opponents.

Nov 19, 2016; Syracuse, NY, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook (4) carries the ball during the first quarter of a game against the Syracuse Orange at the Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

December 28

BEST GAME: West Virginia v. Florida State

The showdown between former Bobby Bowden schools, live from Orlando, will provide a welcome diversion on the Hump Day between Christmas and New Year’s Day. The two teams feature 3000-yard passers, Deondre Francois for Florida State and Skyler Howard for the Mountaineers. The difference maker in this game will be Dalvin Cook, one way or another. If the running back heats up for the Seminoles, all bets are off. But if West Virginia can bottle him up, Dana Holgorsen’s team could notch its biggest win of the year.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Christian McCaffrey (RB/Stanford)

A lot has been made about what has happened to Christian McCaffrey this season. What happened was that, despite failing to eclipse the lofty standards he set last season, the Cardinal back nevertheless finished fourth nationally in rushing yards per game and was the only player in the country with more than 200 all-purpose yards per game. By any measure, McCaffrey is just as worthy a Heisman hopeful this year as he was in 2015. And against a Northwestern defense that gives up over 400 yards of offense per game, he could make noise one last time in front of a local crowd at Levi’s Stadium.

Nov 5, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pressured by Oregon Ducks linebacker De’Quan McDowell (54) during a NCAA football game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

December 29

BEST GAME: Oklahoma v. USC

The last game of the day features the biggest names. If the Sooners win Bedlam, swap in Oklahoma State instead for the showdown at the Alamodome. Either way, they will face a Trojans team that was as hot as anyone down the stretch. USC has now won eight straight after starting the year 1-3, and was a Colorado loss away from playing for the Pac-12 championship. This could end up being the first matchup of top-15 teams in this year’s postseason calendar depending on how championship weekend plays out.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Sam Darnold (QB/USC)

For the first three weeks of the season, USC coach Clay Helton kept Max Browne in as his starter. After a 1-2 start, he decided to go all-in and begin Sam Darnold’s baptism by fire. The true freshman nearly pulled off a win over Utah in Salt Lake City in his first start, and hasn’t lost since. In nine starts and mop-up duty he has thrown for over 2600 yards and 26 touchdowns, finishing the regular season in the top ten in passing efficiency. Against Oklahoma, which finished 122nd out of 128 FBS teams in passing yards allowed, Darnold is poised to post a breakout performance.

Nov 26, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Kentucky defeated Louisville 41-38. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

December 30

BEST GAME: Penn State v. Louisville

One of the most dynamic offensive teams in the country will face one of the toughest defenses in the land in Miami. Penn State will either play here or, if they beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship, head to Pasadena. Louisville, despite losing to Houston and Kentucky over the past fortnight, is still the second-best team in the ACC and should nab this New Year’s Six invitation after Clemson snags a College Football Playoff berth.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Lamar Jackson (QB/Louisville)

Lamar Jackson might arrive at this year’s Orange Bowl as the reigning Heisman winner, though he might also have hurt his chances as Louisville dropped its last two games to limp into the postseason. Only Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes was responsible for more points during the 2016 regular season, and Jackson ranked in the top five in passing efficiency and the top ten in rushing yards per game. He’ll likely face a tough Penn State defense in one of the best matchups of bowl season.

Nov 26, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) scrambles up the field against the Auburn Tigers during the fourth quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama defeated the Auburn Tigers 30-12. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

December 31

BEST GAME: Ohio State v. Clemson

Two of the participants in the past two CFP championship games are slated to square off against one another in the Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes are projected to reach the College Football Playoff despite failing to win the Big Ten, while Clemson is the projected ACC champion. Urban Meyer and Dabo Swinney are two of the best coaches in the country, and the duel between Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett could light up the University of Phoenix Stadium scoreboard to ring in the New Year.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Jalen Hurts (QB/Alabama)

Alabama lost several key parts of their national championship offense, yet they might be more dynamic this season thanks to true freshman Jalen Hurts. The Tide quarterback was responsible for nearly 200 points this season, rushed for at least 100 yards on four occasions, and completed nearly two-thirds of his passes. If the Tide are going to defend their title, Hurts will have to be a difference maker.

Nov 26, 2016; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Dare Ogunbowale (23) rushes with the football during the first quarter against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

January 2

BEST GAME: Wisconsin v. Colorado

In the shadow of the San Gabriel Mountains, the best game of New Year’s Monday will be the oldest bowl game on the calendar. We project that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten championship to claim one invitation, while Pac-12 runner-up Colorado will conclude its dream season with its first time playing in the Rose Bowl game. Two of the best defenses in the country will try to stymie one another at one of the most venerated venues in college football.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Corey Davis (WR/Western Michigan)

The dynamic playmaker for undefeated Western Michigan will get a chance to showcase his skills one last time against a Power Five opponent. Davis caught more touchdown passes than anyone else in the country this season and is in the running for All-American honors. If the Broncos are going to become the third straight Group of Five team to win a New Year’s Six bowl, they will need Davis to have another huge game connecting on the other end of Zach Terrell’s passes.

Jan 1, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban and Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer speak on the field prior to the 2015 Sugar Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

January 9

BEST GAME: CFP National Championship

No matter who makes this game, there will be nothing better to watch on the second Monday of 2017 than the showdown for the national championship. Last year Alabama knocked off Clemson in a thriller. Two years ago Ohio State took down Oregon in the inaugural CFP championship game. Will Urban Meyer or Nick Saban hoist the trophy again, or will a new champion emerge? Stay tuned…

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