Two Heavy MMA writers make their picks for Saturday's main event at UFC 138.
The case for Mark Munoz (by Duane Finley)
My formula for a Munoz win involves three key points:
Motivation, determination and wrestling.
“The Filipino Wrecking Machine” is at the top of the ladder in all three categories when compared to the rest of the MMA world. A former NCAA Division 1 champion, Munoz’s wrestling has been dominant enough to allow time for the other aspects of his fighting to develop. His striking is coming along nicely, and he has displayed “put-down” power in both hands. He won’t have the power advantage over Leben, but he does have the ability to test his chin.
When it comes to determination, Munoz is once again on another level. Not only is he the co-owner of the Reign Training Facility in Orange County, Calif., but Munoz is the spiritual leader and motivator of a group that includes Krzysztof Soszynski, Jake Ellenberger and Jason “Mayhem” Miller. These fighters rally around one another and push each other to become better in the cage. Munoz has adopted Soszynski’s conditioning program, which has done wonders for his stamina.
The final aspect is motivation. Since coming over from the WEC, Munoz has climbed the middleweight ladder at a steady pace. After wins over C.B. Dollaway and Demian Maia, he is now poised to break through into title contention. He wants to be a UFC champion, and that’s going to drive him forward in this fight.
Prediction: Munoz by unanimous decision
The case for Chris Leben (by Nate Lawson)
My colleague is quick to point out Munoz’s motivation, determination and wrestling as clear-cut advantages, and I am certainly not going to take any of that away from Munoz. Now a clear-cut contender, he has displayed over and over again that those three elements can win him fights, having lost only to Yushin Okami in his past four contests.
But Leben needs only one thing to win him this fight, and that lies in his hands.
Yes, it has become a bit cliché to hear about how Leben can knock anyone out with one punch. We hear it endlessly before every single one of his fights.
Still, in order to utilize that strength, one has to put himself in position to earn the knockout. Munoz is a solid game planner, as we’ve seen in his contests against Demian Maia and Aaron Riley, but Leben never seems to fail in his efforts to turn a contest into a straight-up brawl at one point or another. And when this fight undoubtedly does go into brawl mode, with his granite chin, Leben won’t have to worry about getting knocked out, only about delivering the type of punishment he has become famous for.
With a scheduled 25 minutes set for Saturday evening, Leben will have more than enough opportunities to find the button and earn another “Knockout of the Night” bonus; not that he’ll need all five rounds to find the victory, but you should already know that.
Prediction: Leben via technical knockout, Round 3
