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Wild-card winners: Every team's keys to victory this weekend

Published Dec. 31, 2014 10:00 a.m. ET

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Our NFL writers give you the keys to victory for all eight teams playing on wild-card weekend. (All times Eastern)

No. 5 Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (7-8-1), Saturday, 4:35 p.m., ESPN

By Mike Garafolo

No. 6 Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5), Saturday, 8:15 p.m., NBC

By Peter Schrager

The Ravens win if: They channel some of their postseason magic from years past. This team hasn't looked particularly good in the second half of the season. Of the Ravens' 10 wins, only two came against eventual postseason participants (Steelers in Week 2, Panthers in Week 4). But this is a Ravens coaching staff that's prepared and won big playoff road games in the past. Quarterback Joe Flacco has beaten Peyton Manning in Denver and Tom Brady twice in New England. The Steelers have gotten big production out of a few inexperienced defensive backs, but Flacco and Torrey Smith seemed to be clicking in Sunday's win over the Browns.

Get running back Justin Forsett going early, hang in there long enough, and rely on one of the better postseason quarterbacks in NFL history to get the job done in a hostile environment. Flacco is 0-2 all-time in the playoffs against the Steelers, but this is the first time he has Gary Kubiak calling the plays. Want a wild card for this wild card? Ravens rookie wide receiver Michael Campanaro.

The Steelers win if: They continue to ride the momentum that's made them one of the hottest teams in the NFL at exactly the right time. I saw Pittsburgh once in the beginning of the year and then saw the Steelers again versus Atlanta. This team is different from the one that lost in Baltimore in Week 2. Running back Le'Veon Bell's knee is an area of concern, but if he's even 80 percent, he'll play.

The Ravens have struggled with opposing pass rushes and lately Pittsburgh's Jason Worilds and James Harrison are finding great success getting to the quarterback. QB Ben Roethlisberger and top target Antonio Brown are in another stratosphere right now, the Steelers are tough to beat in the postseason at home, and plus they haven't advanced to the divisional round since 2010. There are too many veterans in that locker room to let things come to an end now. 

No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at No. 4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5), Sunday, 1:05 p.m., CBS

By Ross Jones

The Bengals win if: They disrupt Andrew Luck and own the time of possession. The Colts started their 10th different offensive line combination in Week 17 and are stretching very thin. The problem is Cincinnati's pass rush has lost some consistency, tallying just seven sacks over the past six games. To make matters worse for Cincinnati, wide receiver A.J. Green is going through the league's concussion protocol and his status is up in the air. Quarterback Andy Dalton must rely on an improved running game, which has found some traction over the past month since turning to rookie Jeremy Hill. In the five games Hill has rushed at least 20 times, the Bengals are 4-1. When these teams met in Week 7 (a 27-0 Colts win), the Bengals had 10 three-and-outs. Moving the chains, shortening the length of the game and knocking Luck off his launch point are the formula to success. If the Bengals follow suit, it'll be the first postseason win for the franchise since 1990.

The Colts win if: They get off to a fast start. The last time the Colts played on wild-card weekend, last January vs. the Chiefs, they needed the second-biggest comeback in NFL history to advance. Building a lead on Cincinnati would limit the threat of the ground game and make Dalton beat them. Dalton has been unpredictable over the past month and needs receiver Mohamed Sanu to step up. Since the return of Green in November, Sanu has been non-existent. Over the past five weeks he has totaled seven receptions for 70 yards and no touchdowns. The last time the Colts beat a team with a winning record not named the Houston Texans, it was the Bengals in Week 7. Expect offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton to get Luck in a rhythm from the very first series.

No. 6 Detroit Lions (11-5) at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys (12-4), Sunday, 4:40 p.m., FOX

By Alex Marvez

The Cowboys win if: The Cowboys keep their focus. A seven-point favorite, Dallas enters Sunday's matchup with every reason to feel good about its season. After four straight wins in December, the Cowboys won the NFC East title with their best record (12-4) since 2007.

Guarding against such overconfidence may be a bigger challenge for Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett than the Lions themselves. Cowboys teams in recent years had a tendency to get fat and happy when experiencing success, which led to letdowns and losses in games they should have won. To their credit, these Cowboys have avoided that trap. They must do so again to advance.

The Lions win if: Matthew Stafford finally plays like an elite NFL quarterback against quality opposition. Stafford is among the league's highest-paid passers after signing a five-year, $76.5 million contract extension during the 2013 offseason. He did help lead these Lions to an 11-5 record, which is the franchise's best mark in 23 years.

Yet the bigger the game, the smaller Stafford becomes. Stafford has a career record of 0-17 on the road in games against winning teams, including playoffs. His latest loss came in last Sunday's 30-20 defeat against Green Bay. While he threw three touchdowns, Stafford was too erratic in a 20-for-41 performance. Detroit's hiring of head coach Jim Caldwell, who has experience working with two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco, was supposed to result in better consistency from Stafford.

Instead, Stafford is still prone to questionable decision-making that seemingly results in two or three throws a game he never should have attempted. With the Cowboys fielding a high-powered offense, Detroit needs a superlative performance from Stafford to pull off the upset.

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