National Football League

NFL Week 3 Survivor pool picks and analysis

Published Nov. 15, 2016 2:10 p.m. ET

Brett Smiley

The Week 2 games delivered two knockouts in survivor pools and a stinging jab that left folks who took the Ravens a bit dazed but still alive.

I issued a pretty strong word of caution against taking the Seahawks at the Rams in last week’s review, so I’m hopeful that none of you reading this lost an entry on that sinking ship. Also I suggested the Lions were just an “OK” option and showed a picture of Jim Caldwell looking into a football abyss during a blowout loss; he must have been feeling the same way this past Sunday as his Lions blew a 12-point lead to the visiting Titans in the 16-15 loss, the fifth blown lead of that size for Caldwell’s Lions since 2012, which is tops in the league. So, here’s hoping you didn’t go out like that and just took the Panthers.

But back to the Browns-Ravens, where the Browns confirmed, well, a few things. First, that Josh McCown is better than Robert Griffin III. But then McCown's body let him down again and he’ll miss multiple weeks with a shoulder injury. The game also underscored the peril of taking a road team in a divisional game, and that no lead is safe as the Browns blew a 20-2 advantage, ultimately falling 25-20 after a ridiculous taunting penalty near the end of the game. Last week was one to avoid dogging the Browns, but we’ll look at why this week you ought to line up against them.

In response to reader e-mail: for clarification, the five games listed below represent the most popular selections, in order, by players in FOX Survivor pools. I’ll also refer to selection percentages in Yahoo! pools for some additional perspective. They’re not my own confidence rankings.

MIAMI DOLPHINS vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS

This one has the makings of a disastrous game for the visiting Cleveland Browns with rookie Cody Kessler making his first career start and a handful injuries depleting the Browns. But is Miami the right team to take advantage and administer the smackdown?

After toiling with that question for a couple days I think the answer is yes. For starters, Kessler looked shaky at best this preseason, taking seven sacks in just 35 dropbacks -- an average that would be acceptable if he were a utility catcher in baseball. In addition to McCown the Browns have lost starting center Cameron Erving (bruised lung) for a week or two. Talented rookie wideout Corey Coleman just broke his hand and will miss about 4-6 weeks. They also lost starting defensive end Carl Nassib (broken hand), plus safety Ibraheim Campbell (hamstring) may miss a bit of time. Every team has to overcome injury woes but the Browns team is already thin on a talent and experience. At this rate the Browns won’t even have to tank at the end of the season -- the injury bug alone may help them guarantee the 2017 No. 1 overall pick.

But the biggest issue will be Kessler. The third-round draft pick began the season third on the depth chart and is getting thrown into the fire where he’s likely to see the pocket quickly disintegrate with Ndamukong Suh charging over a guard playing center and Mario Williams and Cameron Wake closing in from the outside. If Kessler and the Browns are going to have a chance, they’ll need to get running back Isaiah Crowell going and slow down the game.

Crowell ripped off an 85-yard touchdown run against the Ravens but otherwise averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. The Dolphins showed some fortitude with a comeback last week in New England after falling behind 31-3 midway through the second quarter, drawing within 31-24 with a chance to tie when Ryan Tannehill got picked in the end zone. This was against a Patriots defense that just thoroughly stifled the Houston Texans in a performance so disappointing that Texans fans don't even want free chicken McNuggets.

I think this is a major “get well” game for the Dolphins (0-2) and will be Adam Gase’s first win as a head coach. With explosive wide receiver DeVante Parker back in action (hamstring), dynamic slot man Jarvis Landry and the speedy Kenny Stills, plus tight end Jordan Cameron, I think the Dolphins are going to air it out against a wobbly Browns secondary anda front seven that will struggle to pressure the quarterback. The Dolphins are a popular pick this week -- a robust 36% of FOX Survivor poolsters are on them -- and for good reason.

DALLAS COWBOYS vs. CHICAGO BEARS

(Searching for the right adjective to describe Chicago’s play against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. Putrid? Pathetic? Woeful? Horrid?)

Let’s table that for a second because it’s about to get worse. This is the second-most popular pick in FOX Survivor pools with 12% backing Dallas while they’re getting 10.3% supper on Yahoo! (fourth most popular).

The headline is that Jay Cutler (sprained thumb) will most likely miss this game and backup Brian Hoyer will take over after he relieved Cutler on Monday. The point spread suggests otherwise (from Dallas -4 to -7) but Hoyer isn’t really a downgrade from Cutler, who threw a terrible interception against the Eagles when he didn’t see a linebacker Nigel Bradham underneath and dropped it right into his hands. (Meanwhile Houston Texans fans spit up their coffee, recalling Hoyer’s four interception, two-fumble performance in a 30-0 Wild Card shutout to the Chiefs in January.)

The Bears’ offensive line didn’t do Cutler many favors the first two weeks and may leave Hoyer ducking too. Also the Bears running game has struggled, particularly RB Jeremy Langford. And we haven’t even gotten to the ridiculous rash of injuries on Chicago’s defense between linebacker Danny Trevathan (undergoing thumb surgery), run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman (high-ankle sprain), pass-rushing outside linebacker Lamarr Houston (torn ACL). Meanwhile Chicago was already missing linebacker Pernell McPhee. Ouch.

The impact of an injury here and there often gets overstated but these are three major injuries -- on a short week -- in front of a shaky secondary. Dallas ought to smell the blood in the water and plow through Chicago’s replacements with their offensive line. The ‘Boys got Dez Bryant going last week, Jason Witten should find space to operate and Zeke Elliott may get his first 100-yard game, or at least average better than 4.0. The Cowboys have no excuse to lose this game.

ARIZONA CARDINALS at BUFFALO BILLS

In FOX Survivor pools, the Cardinals are tied with the Cowboys as the second-most popular pick (12% apiece). This is one of those games where I believe the team will probably win but think people are taking an unnecessary risk in this spot after the Cardinals annihilated the Buccaneers and the Bills got ripped by the Jets last Thursday night.

Although it was a ludicrous, head-scratching move by the Bills to axe offensive coordinator Greg Roman the day after the Jets loss, sometimes these in-season moves can provide a boost -- if not through schematic changes (as Lions’ OC Jim Bob Cooter accomplished last season in a major turnaround) but with morale and urgency. I don’t purport to know the what exactly motivated the move other than Rex Ryan possibly needing to offer up a sacrificial lamb, but at least the players (LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor) seem eager to run a simplified, streamlined offense with running backs coach Anthony Lynn elevated to OC.

We’ve got a West Coast team headed to the East for a 1:00 p.m. start and may seem them come out a bit flat. That's common. Then again, consider this via Rotoworld’s Rich Hirbar: Carson Palmer averaged 330 passing yards with 11 touchdown passes in his four starts traveling East for an early start last season. Perhaps Palmer has a Tempur-Pedic mattress on team flights and is immune to jet lag. Meanwhile Arizona has a stacked WR corps and you saw what the Jets trio of big receivers did to Buffalo’s secondary.

Without a doubt the Cardinals are the better team, I just don't see why people would take them this week, on the road, against a team that’s absolutely desperate for a win, especially when there’s better options (see above).

GREEN BAY PACKERS vs. DETROIT LIONS

Are you fully read up on all the “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” pieces? I've seen a lot this week and here’s the thing: it’s true -- Rodgers hasn’t been quite right for a number of weeks, nor the Packers offense as a whole. There are plenty of plays to dig into for examination; I suggest looking here.

That’s why this game is kind of scary from a survivor standpoint (and for Packers fans). Recall last season the Lions beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field for the first time since the Cold War ended? Doesn’t do anything for you? Okay -- for the first time since Michael Bolton’s “When a Man Loves a Woman” was a number-one hit.

Alright, never mind. The Lions hadn’t beaten the Packers at Lambeau in 24 tries until they turned the trick with a 18-16 upset last November. The Packers entered their bye week at 6-0 before losing three straight -- first to the eventual Super Bowl teams (Broncos then Panthers) before falling 18-16 to Lions who were 1-7 at the time.

The Packers offense looks similar now as they did in that loss. Receivers aren’t getting separation, Rodgers is relying on his ability to dance around the pocket to buy time and make plays, the running game is struggling and so on. Rodgers attempted a whopping 61 passes in that game.

Meanwhile, the Lions have about 29 problems of their own, beginning with the absences of defensive end Ziggy Ansah (ankle) and their defensive leader, linebacker DeAndre Levy (quad). As mentioned above, the Lions have a knack for blowing leads. They were also flagged for SEVENTEEN (17!!!) penalties last week which resulted in three nullified touchdowns. This is a team that can’t get out of its own way.

It’s possible the Packers comes to life against a secondary that Andrew Luck shredded in Week 1. It’s possible they need some more time to iron out their offense and get going again. I really don’t know what to expect in this game and that’s making me very gun-shy from a survivor standpoint. 11% of poolsters have pegged the Packers in FOX pools. I’d like to watch the Packers come back to life before assuming that this is the week they do it.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Five percent of FOX poolgoers like the Seahawks this week.

via GIPHY

Folks, this team has scored one touchdown in its first two games against defenses (Dolphins, Rams) that aren’t exactly bulletproof. Russell Wilson is playing through a high-ankle sprain and it’s an important ankle because Seattle’s terrible offensive line (it will help if rookie guard Germain Ifedi is able to return but he didn’t practice on Thursday) means he spends a lot of time ducking and running. San Francisco doesn’t as strong a D-Line as the Seahawks’ previous two opponents but it’s still worrisome.

The 49ers’ won’t have an easy time generating offense against the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the 49ers got some help from a weird turnover last week but they did score 27 points against the Carolina Panthers after dropping 28 on the Rams. This just isn’t a particularly wise time to take the Seahawks. Seattle is a tough place to play and they’re a veteran bunch, but the 49ers seem to be playing with some spark right now. I’d back away from Seattle until they provide reason otherwise.

Also worth considering:

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins -- I’m afraid to take them because I’m a Giants fan but Kirk Cousins has struggled on the road (and in both home games this year) and Big Blue’s revamped defense is legit.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams -- This is a riskier play but Tampa's rushing defense can probably shut down Todd Gurley behind his shaky offensive line. And the Bucs should be able to put up at least 17 points, which is 12.5 more than the Rams have averaged through two games.

Pick your poison and check back here tomorrow for Week 3’s top prop bets.