Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears: Friday Fact or Fiction

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:05 p.m. ET

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Sep 18, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley reacts during the second quarter against the San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

With a week to reflect on a close win against the Indianapolis Colts in London, the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Chicago in another must-win game if they want to stay relevant.

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a tough slate to start the season, but you’d be hard pressed to find many fans who were expecting the team to be in dire straits with a 1-3 record coming out of the bye.

Big picture, the 1-3 record isn’t the end of the world given the Jaguars have played two perennial playoff contenders (the Packers and the Ravens) and a team that routinely obliterates them on the west coast (the Chargers and Philip Rivers). What’s more concerning than the record is the way the Jaguars are losing (or even winning) these games. They’ve been uncharacteristically reckless with penalties, unable to adapt to anything the opposing team is doing over the course of the game, and completely helpless at times on offense. Blake Bortles has regressed to the point where more and more people are starting to write him off entirely, and nobody expects Gus Bradley to come back as the head coach in 2017.

In order to rebuild the perception they are a team on the rise, the Jaguars have to string together some wins, starting with the Chicago Bears this Sunday. Sitting at 1-4, the Bears are a team with serious questions at the quarterback position, injuries throughout the defensive line, and a truly awful secondary. In theory this should be a game where the Jaguars should win out due to pure talent, but that’s not how this team operates.

So what’s going to actually happen this Sunday when the Jaguars take the field at a frigid Soldier Field? Are they going to pull off something they haven’t done very often during Gus Bradley’s tenure – win consecutive games? Click ahead to see my “rock solid” predictions:

Oct 2, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Brian Hoyer (2) prior to a game against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Brian Hoyer will throw an interception: FICTION

The Jacksonville Jaguars faced Brian Hoyer twice in 2015 when he was a member of the Houston Texans. The first meeting was a somewhat embarrassing home less where Hoyer looked like an efficient and capable starter (24 of 36 for 293 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions). The second game was the final one of the season and was truly an atrocious display of football on the Jaguars part. Hoyer didn’t have nearly as good a game (25 of 40 for 249 yards with 1 touchdown and one interception), but he didn’t need to since the Jaguars were downright awful on both sides of the ball.

Hoyer has shown he isn’t a playoff-caliber quarterback, but he is more than functional against bad teams. And guess what? Right now, the Jaguars are a bad team. They don’t have an identity on offense right now and the defense has a lot of young pieces that need to show more despite flashing enough to warrant some encouragement.

The question for this game regarding Hoyer is whether or not the Jaguars can get consistent pressure on him. Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler Jr. are going to have to pick up the slack this week since the Bears have some of the best guard play in the league (Josh Sitton and Kyle Long are pretty good), so the interior pressure will be somewhat diminished. I like the two young edge rushers, but I don’t think they are quite ready to shoulder the load and carry the defense to a win. I think Hoyer will be free of pressure most of the time and will keep a clean sheet on Sunday.

Oct 2, 2016; London, United Kingdom; Chris Ivory (33) of the Jacksonville Jaguars drives through a gap in the Indianapolis Colts defense during the third quarter at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Ivory will receive more carries than T.J. Yeldon: FACT

The Jaguars went into the season with the plan of having a running back by committee – why else would you sign Chris Ivory to a lucrative contract when you already have T.J. Yeldon? The move looked smart during the preseason when both backs looked spry, but Ivory’s medical issue that sideline him in weeks 1 and 2 threw the backfield for a loop. Yeldon has been just OK (he looked better last week), but the Jaguars are clearly hoping Ivory can take over a bulk of the early carries when he’s fully healthy.

I think the transition begins this week against the Bears. Yeldon had 14 carries to Ivory’s 8 against the Colts last week, but it’s become public now that Ivory wasn’t 100%. With a week of rest and time to make sure he gets incorporated into the offense, the Jaguars will make a concerted effort to give Ivory more touches.

I still expect Yeldon to start the game – the coaches seem to like his ability to catch out of the backfield and his patience to wait for blocks on screens. But I expect the Jaguars to turn to Ivory in the second half with the hope that his bruising style will give them an edge against a tired defense. Let’s say the workload will look something like 16 carries for Ivory to 12 for Yeldon.

Oct 2, 2016; London, United Kingdom; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) is defended by Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) in the third quarter at Wembley Stadium. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Allen Robinson will score a touchdown: FICTION

Allen Robinson had 10 targets last week against the Colts (the most on the team), and his 41 targets for the year leads the team by a significant margin (no one else has more than 27 targets). Blake Bortles is clearly favoring the Pro Bowl receiver with good reason. Despite all the targets, Robinson’s production has been somewhat meager compared to his 2015 output. Teams are keeping their best cornerback on ARob or rolling coverage over to make sure the star pass catcher isn’t left alone against lesser corners.

The Bears don’t have anyone resembling a shutdown defensive back, so Robinson should have a solid day right? Maybe, but I think John Fox and Vic Fangio will scheme up some coverage to double Robinson as often as possible. This means Bortles is going to have to look for other receivers, shifting some of the opportunities away from ARob. With that in mind, I expect a modest day for the Jaguars’ best receiver.

The Jaguars need to win this game if they want to give fans any hope for the rest of the year. 2-3 isn’t stellar but it’s a far cry better than 1-4 with a home game against Jack del Rio and the Oakland Raiders on the horizon.

Some teams thrive on the desperation, but I’ve seen nothing over the course of Gus Bradley’s tenure to expect this team to win a road game when they really need it. I don’t know how the Jaguars are going to blow this one, but I think they will until they show me they won’t. Put together a winning streak and I’ll start believing. Until then…

PREDICTION: Jaguars 20 – Bears 27