Week 11 picks: Get set for big-time games on Thursday
NOV 06, 2013 8:44p ET
If you stick with me, eventually you'll be rewarded.
Such was the case last week when the picks went 5-0.
That runs our record back into positive territory, the Outkick picks are 31-29 on the season. I'm on a roll, baby. I can feel it.
So much of a roll, in fact, that I'm giving y'all the picks a day early. (Not to mention, the two biggest games of the week are both on Thursday night â so I want to get your TV viewing guide started right.)
Can we make it 7-0 against the number?
I took this bet early in the week at -13.5. Right now the line's around -15 with some places still having it at -14.5. I'd still take Baylor up to 16.5 because I think Baylor's going to roll the Sooners.
If you haven't already watched Baylor play, you need to do so on Thursday night. They're fun to watch. The game kicks off at 7:30 ET on FOX Sports 1.
Oregon has wanted this payback game for a year now. Stanford has been a bit erratic all season. This is Marcus Mariota's Heisman moment, he can win the award tonight or he can lose it.
Take Oregon, big.
The Commodores don't just have a good shot of covering this spread â they have a decent chance to win this game outright.
In fact, if you're in a betting hole this season and trying to bet your way out of it â because, why wouldn't you be doing that, you're not a quitter! â check out the money line here. You can get Vandy at +315 right now.
I think that's a great bet.
Mizzou -14 at Kentucky
Vegas hates Mizzou despite the fact that the Tigers are 7-1-1 on the season against the number. Meanwhile, Kentucky is awful, rolling towards a 2-9 record before trying to make its season a success with a final game upset of the Vols.
So why not continue to prove Vegas wrong when it comes to Mizzou?
Take the Tigers.
Tennessee has the worst rush defense in the SEC. Auburn has the best rush offense.
Sometimes it really is that simple.
Auburn wins by double digits.
The Razorbacks have lost six in a row and Ole Miss is hoping for a nine-win season.
So far this season, Arkansas has lost every SEC game by 12 or more points regardless of where those games have been played. In fact, the Razorbacks have lost every SEC game but Texas A&M by 18 or more points.
The line is currently Ole Miss -16.5.
Take the Rebels.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M -19
It's Johnny Manziel's final game in College Station â and, if we've learned anything at all about Johnny Manziel, it's that he's going out big.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is headed toward either 4-8 or 5-7, but only if the Bulldogs can beat Arkansas in Little Rock in the saddest SEC game of the year.
Take Johnny and the Aggies, big.
VIEWER GUIDE FOR SATURDAY
1. Take Friday morning off work because Thursday night college football is fabulous and you're going to be up late.
How good is the Thursday night slate? This is the best non-Saturday regular season that we've ever had in college football history.
a. Oklahoma at Baylor kicks off at 7:30 ET on FOX Sports 1
My guys Joel and Petros are on the call from Waco. If you haven't watched Baylor yet (and I know lots of you haven't) you need to start on Thursday night. This is when we find out whether the Bears are a legit threat to finish undefeated in the Big 12.
b. Oregon at Stanford, 9 ET on ESPN
This game won't end until around 1 a.m. on the East Coast â so call in sick on Friday. You deserve it.
2. Wake up Saturday morning and check us out on FOX College Saturday on FS1.
The best cure for a hangover? My beard.
3. Mizzou at Kentucky, Vandy at Florida, and Auburn at Tennessee, noon ET, ESPN Networks
I'm not sure that any of these SEC games are worth your full attention, but this is a great trio to flip around and sample because each of these games has an interesting storyline.
Plus, I'm telling you to bet on all of them â and you want to make sure I'm getting you rich.
Vandy really could beat Florida; Butch Jones and Tennessee are fighting for a Bowl berth against yet another top ten opponent; Gus Malzahn just might win the Bear Bryant Award; and Mizzou is trying to slam the door on a bad Kentucky team to end any possibility of losing a three-way SEC tie.
4. Mississippi State at Texas A&M, 3:30 ET, CBS
It's Johnny Manziel's last game in College Station â and before A&M embarks on two final road games at LSU and at Mizzou, Dan Mullen's crew rolls into town for a beating.
It's time for Aggies to say goodbye to Johnny. Don't you just know something wild will happen? Plus, what else are you going to watch all afternoon?
5. LSU at Alabama, 8 ET, CBS
I'm not betting on this game because LSU's woeful effort against Ole Miss broke me of betting on the Bayou Bengals this fall. But, I do think a 13-point spread is getting way too high for this game.
Plus, what else are you doing on Saturday night? Should I dust off #cbsdrink so we can drink along with all our Internet friends?