The 2007 NBA Draft is a prime example of just how much of a crapshoot the predicting of a player's future performance can be. Greg Oden was essentially the consensus No. 1 pick, but injuries limited him to playing in parts of just three NBA seasons before he was forced to call it a career at age 26.
The No. 2 pick in that draft, however, became one of the league's best players.
It was Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan all over again in Portland, when the Blazers passed on Kevin Durant, and there's no doubt that they would have done things very differently with the benefit of hindsight.
Knowing what we know now, here's how the 2007 NBA Draft lottery picks should have shaken out.
Kevin Durant, SF, Portland Trail Blazers
Actual selection: No. 2 overall (Sonics)
Durant won four scoring titles and a league MVP in nine years with the Thunder and helped keep the team relevant in Oklahoma City after its move from Seattle in 2008. You couldn't ask for much more from a No. 1 overall pick, except for maybe a championship or two -- and KD is finally on track to win his first with the Warriors in his 10th NBA season.
NBAE/Getty ImagesRocky Widner
Al Horford, PF, Seattle SuperSonics
Actual selection: No. 3 overall (Hawks)
Al Horford isn't Kevin Durant, but he made four All-Star teams in nine seasons with the Hawks, and as we're seeing in Boston this season, his overall skill set can greatly benefit a playoff team on the rise.
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Marc Gasol, C, Atlanta Hawks
Actual selection: No. 48 overall (Lakers)
When the Lakers took a flyer on Gasol with a late second-round pick, they did so mainly because he was the younger brother of All-Star big man Pau Gasol, who had proven to be extremely skilled during his first six NBA seasons.
But over the years it has become clear that Marc was worthy of a much higher selection. He's a three-time All-Star who was named Defensive Player of the Year in 2013, and he has helped lead Memphis to the playoffs in six of the last seven years.
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Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Actual selection: No. 4 overall (Grizzlies)
Conley is the fourth-best player of his draft class all these years later, so the Grizzlies really couldn't have done any better of a job. He's coming off of a season in which he averaged a career-best 20.5 points per game, and thanks to the timing of his contract renewal coinciding with the league's salary cap spike he had the distinction of being the league's highest-paid player in 2017 despite never being named to an All-Star team in 10 NBA seasons.
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Joakim Noah, C, Boston Celtics
Actual selection: No. 9 overall (Bulls)
This talent in this draft drops off pretty quickly after the first four selections, and as we head into role-player territory, Noah is the best of the bunch. Sure, his contract is an albatross for the Knicks now, but he was a two-time All-Star and a Defensive Player of the Year with the Bulls for nine seasons before Phil Jackson made one of his biggest mistakes in bringing him to New York.
Wilson Chandler, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
Actual selection: No. 23 overall (Knicks)
Chandler became a full-time starter in New York by his second NBA season before being dealt to the Nuggets in the 2011 Carmelo Anthony trade. He's remained in Denver ever since and had a resurgent 2016-17 season in which he finished with averages of 15.7 points and 6.5 rebounds in 30.9 minutes per contest.
Jeff Green, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
Actual selection: No. 5 overall (Celtics)
Boston might have reached a bit to grab Green with the fifth overall pick, but not by much. Once we get past Noah, the rest comes down to personal preference, and Green's numbers place him firmly near the top of this draft's third tier of players.
NBAE/Getty ImagesBrian Babineau
Thaddeus Young, PF, Charlotte Bobcats
Actual selection: No. 12 overall (Sixers)
Young is a solid big man who spent the first seven years of his career in Philadelphia before being traded to the Timberwolves as part of a series of moves that sent Kevin Love to the Cavaliers in the summer of 2014. He started 74 games for the Pacers in 2017, averaging 11 points and 6.1 rebounds in 30.2 minutes per game.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsTroy Taormina
Jared Dudley, SF, Chicago Bulls
Actual selection: No. 22 overall (Charlotte Bobcats)
Dudley might not have the numbers that some below him on this list do, but he's been a key role player throughout his NBA career and is praised around the league for his professionalism and high basketball IQ. The Suns brought him back last summer on a three-year deal primarily to set a good example and help mentor the young talent on the roster.
Arron Afflalo, SG, Sacramento Kings
Actual selection: No. 27 overall (Pistons)
Afflalo has a double-digit scoring average for his career, and he shot better than 41 percent for the Kings this season despite dealing with the typical dysfunction we've seen from the franchise for the past 10-plus years. He averaged a career-best 18.2 points per game with the Magic in 2013-14.
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Nick Young, SG, Atlanta Hawks
Actual selection: No. 16 overall (Wizards)
Young's career has been marred by a series of goofy off-court incidents, but he's had stretches where he was a pretty lethal offensive two-guard when he was able to keep his mind right. He averaged a career-best 17.4 points per game with the Wizards in 2011 and was widely praised for his professional approach with the Lakers last season, when he played well on both ends of the floor in 60 regular-season starts.
Corey Brewer, SG, Philadelphia 76ers
Actual selection: No. 7 overall (Timberwolves)
Brewer has been a highly skilled role player for the majority of his NBA career and averaged 15.9 minutes per game for a very good Rockets team before being traded to the Lakers for Lou Williams in the middle of the 2016-17 season. He also randomly went off for 51 points one night as a member of the Timberwolves in 2014.
Howard Smith-USA TODAY SportsHoward Smith
Carl Landry, SF, New Orleans Hornets
Actual selection: No. 31 overall (Sonics)
Landry played nine NBA seasons for five different teams and enjoyed his statistical peak in 2010, when he averaged 16.8 points playing for both the Rockets and the Kings. He last played for the Sixers in 2016 and holds a career average of 10.8 points per game over 513 regular-season appearances.
Rodney Stuckey, PG, L.A. Clippers
Actual selection: No. 15 overall (Pistons)
No shade thrown Rodney Stuckey's way, but things begin to get pretty thin by the time we've reached the end of our exercise. Names like Spencer Hawes, Rudy Fernandez and Aaron Brooks were considered for the final spot, but Stuckey's peak years with the Pistons were enough to give him the nod over all the rest. He played for Indiana 2016-17 and averaged 7.2 points in 17.8 minutes off the bench in his 39 regular-season appearances.