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Yankees 2017 Top 20 Prospects List with Scouting Reports
POOL Aug 14, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) takes the field in a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. The Tampa Bay Rays won 12-3. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Yanks Go Yard takes a crack at ranking the top 20 New York Yankees prospects going into the 2017 season.
Not does the New York Yankees farm system feature between five and ten blue chippers who rank among the top 100 prospects in all of baseball, but the depth at all levels of their farm system is incredible.
They have around 50 guys who wouldn’t look out of place in the top 30 of most other clubs around the league, so the task of narrowing down a top 20 prospects list isn’t an easy one. There are tons of names I’ve left off here that I’m still having second thoughts about ommitting. Feel free to quibble with my choices in the comments, but know that I didn’t leave your favorite prospect off lightly. There are simply too many good players for just 20 slots in this organization.
The top five Yankees minor league affiliates all made the postseason in 2016, and it was on the strength of real quality prospects, not just overperforming org players or veterans. Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre got a lot of attention after winning their first ever Triple-A Championship, but a number of other clubs in the system were just as stocked with premier talent.
This is easily the team’s best collection of young players since the beginning of the dynasty era, and while there’s the possibility the 2017 big league club could be in for some growing pains, there is a ton for Yankees fans to excited about down on the farm next year. Let’s count our way down from number twenty.
Feb 18, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Domingo German works out as the pitchers and catchers arrive for spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
20. Nick Solak
The Yankees 2016 second rounder has mostly flown under the radar among prospect evaluators because of his lack of flashy tools, but the 21-year-old second baseman out of the University of Louisville can flat out rake, hitting .321/.412/.421 in 279 plate appearances with short-season Staten Island in the NY-Penn League.
With his advanced approach at the plate, underrated defense at the keystone, and above-average speed, Solak could be a quick riser through the system. He’s a sleeper candidate to unseat Starlin Castro within the next few years.
19. Taylor Widener
In their 2016 Draft Report Card (subscription required) for the Yankees, Baseball America was glowing with their praise for Widener, listing him under Best Fastball, Closest to the Majors, and Best Late-Round Pick for the club’s 2016 draft class.
An absolute steal as a 12th-round selection, the 22-year-old righty pairs a mid-90’s fastball with a plus breaking ball and developing change. Widener also has excellent command, which combined with his deep arsenal makes me wonder if the team shouldn’t try him out in the rotation next season. If they don’t, he should cruise through the minors and could even reach the Bronx by next summer.
18. Domingo German
German was one of the team’s top pitching prospects after coming from Miami in the Nathan Eovaldi trade, but missed the entire 2015 campaign and a good chunk of 2016 to Tommy John surgery. He showed few signs of rust in his 10 starts split below Low and High-A upon his return this year, pitching to a 3.08 ERA and striking out 19.2% of the batters he faced (6.9 K/9) while walking 5.6% (1.8 BB/9).
The Yankees showed their faith in the 24-year-old righty by unexpectedly adding him to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. It may take a little time to build up his innings, but he’s got an upper-90’s fastball, a credible changeup, and solid command. All the pieces for a mid-rotation starter are there when he’s back to full strength.
17. Wilkerman Garcia
As a 17-year-old in the Gulf Coast League, Garcia was the first member of the Yankees famous 2014 international draft class to really make a name for himself among prospect hounds, hitting .281/.396/.347 in 150 plate appearances against much older competition while flashing impressive athleticism at shortstop.
In retrospect, assigning Garcia to the Appalachian League at 18, where he was 2.5 years younger than the average ball player was probably aggressive. He struggled to a .198/.255/.284 line in 239 plate appearances with Pulaski, but retains all of the incredible physical tools that wowed scouts the year before.
Repeating the level would probably be advisable, and this time I wouldn’t be surprised by a monster breakout that pushes Garcia into the team’s top 10 by next year.
Oct 18, 2016; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Scottsdale Scorpions pitcher Dillon Tate of the New York Yankees against the Surprise Saguaros during an Arizona Fall League game at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
16. Dillon Tate
While the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft has an impressive pedigree, many scouts are not convinced he has what it takes to stick as a starter long-term because of his inconsistent mechanics, spotty control, fluctuating velocity, and slight frame.
After coming to New York as the centerpiece of the Carlos Beltran deal last spring, Tate worked exclusively as a reliever with Low-A Charleston and in the Arizona Fall League. He made some strides with getting his velocity back into the mid-90’s, but he remains a work in progress going into next year. General manager Brian Cashman did confirm he will get another chance as a starter during the 2017 campaign.
With his plus command and four-pitch arsenal, the 23-year-old Montgomery looks ready to slot into the Yankees rotation as soon as next spring. Monty was simply dominant in 25 starts split between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in 2016, pitching to a combined 2.13 ERA in 139.1 IP while striking out 23% of the batters he faced (8.7 K/9) and walking 7.7% (2.9 BB/9).
Although he’s not yet on the 40-man roster, it’s not hard to see Montgomery forcing his way into the team’s plans with a strong performance in spring training.
14. Estevan Florial
Like his Pulaski teammate Wilkerman Garcia, Florial’s offensive numbers took a step backwards against much older competition in the Appalachian League, but there is still a ton to like with the young outfielder.
If I had to bet which player in the lower levels of the system was most likely to emerge as a true superstar, it would be Florial. He has an incredible combination of power and speed that could make him a 30-30 type of player down the road. He’s also a fantastic outfielder who has a 70 or 80 grade arm in right field. There’s plenty of work to do with his plate discipline and there are some questions about his ability to make consistent contact, but the payoff could be enormous in a few years.
13. Dustin Fowler
The former 18th round selection in the 2013 draft has steadily improved his stock within the organization and looks ready to take over center field for Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre after hitting .281/.311/.458 with 12 home runs and 25 steals in a full season in the Eastern League last year.
Many 2017 lists have Fowler in the top 10, but I’m not as big a believer in him as many analysts because of his stubborn refusal to ever draw a walk. The power/speed combo is nice, but without truly elite tools or defense, I just don’t think he’ll get on base enough to be even an average everyday player. He could be useful off the bench as soon as 2018, however.
Nov 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; East infielder Miguel Andujar of the New York Yankees during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
12. Albert Abreu
The newest live arm in the Yankees growing stable, Abreu was one of two flamethrowers the team got in return from the Houston Astros for Brian McCann. The 21-year-old has a pretty polished and well-rounded arsenal for his age. Besides a mid-90’s fourseamer that can touch 99, he throws a curve, slider, and change that all look like potential average or better MLB offerings.
The control is still a work in progress, he walked 13.2% of the batters he faced in 2016 (5.1 BB/9), but still managed to put up a respectable 3.72 ERA in 101.2 IP between Low and High-A because of his ability to miss bats (10.2 K/9).
11. Miguel Andujar
The 21-year-old tore up High-A in his second go-round with Tampa last year, hitting .283/.343/.474 with 10 homers in 251 plate appearances, earning himself a midseason promotion to the Eastern League.
Considering he was 3.3 years younger than his average competition in Double-A, the .266/.323/.358 slash line he put up in the second half is pretty respectable, and he went on to prove his breakout was no fluke with a very strong showing for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League.
Andujar’s standout tools include plus pop from the right side of the plate and an absolute cannon that more than makes up for his sometimes shaky glove work at the hot corner.
10. Tyler Wade
Wade is one of the more divisive Yankees prospects. Some see nothing more than a run-of-the-mill utility infielder, while others see a potential solid starter at either middle infield spot. The major hole in his game is a lack of power, but all of his other tools project as MLB average or better.
He’s a plus runner who has stolen 82 bags over the last three seasons, gets on base at a good clip (career .350 OBP), and projects as an above average fielder at both second and short. The team also experimented with putting Wade in the outfield for the first time in the Arizona Fall League, which suggests they may be trying to increase his versatility for a bench role in the near future.
Sheffield has been somewhat overshadowed as the second piece New York got in the Andrew Miller deal, but he’s a potential above-average starter with swing-and-miss stuff who should be ready to test his mettle against Double-A competition next year.
The 20-year-old lefty is still a little raw. He’s had trouble throwing strikes at times and his secondary offering could still use some fine-tuning, but that’s not unusual for a pitcher his age. He ranks a notch behind a few of the club’s other pitching prospects in my mind because he lacks true front-of-the-rotation potential, but still looks like a quality pitcher who could be in the mix for a rotation spot by 2018.
Mar 5, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Jorge Mateo (93) forces out Boston Red Sox second baseman Brock Holt (12) and throws the ball to first base for a double play during the first inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
8. Jorge Mateo
Mateo took a big step back offensively in 2016. His strikeout rate jumped from 15.1% the previous year to 20.1%, his OBP sunk 39 points, and he was hitting the ball in the air way too much for a player with his wheels.
Because there are few players in baseball that can match his raw speed, Mateo’s floor is pretty high. Like Billy Hamilton, it’s going to be hard for him to be bad. The plan to stick him in centerfield to take advantage of his range a la Hamilton seems like a good one. Still, I don’t see a star here like I do with some of the guys who rank above him.
The 22-year-old righty was again plagued by nagging injuries in 2016, but was overpowering when healthy, putting up a 2.61 ERA in 93 IP between Charleston and Tampa, striking out 27.4% of opposing batters (9.9 K/9) and walking just 5.9% (2.1 BB/9). As a 6’7 behemoth with a 100 mph heater, it’s really easy to dream on Acevedo.
He’s no longer just a “thrower,” having made great strides with his control and changeup. His breaking ball is still a work in progress, but could be the missing piece that makes him a legit ace when he gains some consistency with it. He feels like a guy who could either need another few seasons to work things out, or could be in the Bronx by August if everything clicks.
6. Chance Adams
Easily the best pitcher in the minor leagues in 2016, Adams put up a 2.33 ERA in 127.1 IP split between High-A and Double-A, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced (10.2 K/9) and walked 7.9% (2.8 BB/9). He led all qualified MiLB pitchers in opponents’ batting average with a .169 mark.
Converting the college closer to the rotation in 2016 may have been the most important move the Yankees made in 2016, as Adams now looks like a potential front of the rotation option who could be big league ready at some point in 2017. He commands all four of his pitches well, relying primarily on an upper-90’s heater and a hard slider, while also mixing in a change and curve.
Although he slipped all the way to the Yankees at number 18 overall, the 19-year-old Rutherford is now seen by many evaluators as the best pure hitter from the 2016 draft class. He certainly didn’t hurt his case during his first taste of pro ball, hitting .382/.440/.618 in 100 plate appearances for Pulaski before hitting the shelf with a hamstring injury.
Rutherford has the makings of an all-around superstar who could shoot to the top of these rankings by next winter. He’s got a sweet left-handed swing, plenty of pop, and above average speed that lets him play center field capably, although most scouts think he’ll end up as an excellent defensive corner outfielder by the time he makes it to the big leagues.
Oct 18, 2016; Mesa, AZ, USA; Scottsdale Scorpions pitcher James Kaprielian of the New York Yankees against the Mesa Solar Sox during an Arizona Fall League game at Sloan Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
While Frazier is seen by many as the crown jewel of the Yankees system, I tend to see him as more of a future solid regular than a real star. He’s got an enticing combination of power and speed, but is kind of a hacker at the plate and still seems to have significant trouble recognizing breaking pitches. He struggled mightily in his first time through the International League in the second half of the year, hitting .228/.278/.396 with the Railriders, striking out in 28.5% of his plate appearances.
If he could stick in center field long-term it would improve his projection, but I think ultimately he’ll move to a corner spot where the bat won’t play as well. Don’t get me wrong, I think Frazier is going to be a good player. This is my justification for keeping him this low when most outlets have him at or near the top.
This may seem like an aggressive ranking for a pitcher with just three starts during the regular season, but after showing he’s once again healthy in the Arizona Fall League, Kap looks ready to take back his mantle as the organization’s top pitching prospect.
The club’s 2015 first rounder completely outclassed High-A hitters in April, striking out 22 and walking three in his 18 frames. In the AFL, Kap’s fastball continued in the mid to upper 90’s even after the elbow issue. To compliment the heater, the 22-year-old has three above-average MLB offerings that he mixes well with excellent command.
Last year in big league spring training, Kaprielian looked like he could step right into New York’s rotation with no problem and I expect that will be the case next year as well. The team will have to baby him in 2017 to prevent another flare up, but look for him to be the club’s ace by 2018 if Masahiro Tanaka opts out.
2. Aaron Judge
I recently wrote about Judge getting a short shrift on 2017 prospect lists because of one bad month in the major leagues. He’s shown similar contact skills, power, and defensive abilities to Frazier in the minors, but he was one of the most feared hitters in the International League in 2016 while Frazier struggled. Both hitters need to make adjustments to succeed at their new more advanced levels, and I have faith that both guys are capable of that.
Not only is Judge more advanced, however, but he’s shown superior plate discipline at every level of the minor leagues and his immense frame gives him incredible power potential when he cuts down on the Ks. He led all major league hitters who put at least 15 balls in play last year with a 96.8 mph average exit velocity. As he starts to make more consistent contact next year, those towering moon shots we saw last year will start coming with even greater frequency.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to you if you’ve made it this far. The 19-year-old’s MVP performance in the Arizona Fall League was the icing on the cake of an already excellent 2016 campaign. He has no real holes in his game, with all of his tools except power projected as plus across the board, and many scouts think he’ll eventually develop 20 homer pop as his frame fills out.
When the various Top 100 lists get released closer to the season, expect Torres to rank in the 5-10 range on most of them after sitting around 20-30 last year. His stock should only continue to rise, and there seems to be no reason why we won’t see Torres somewhere in the Yankees infield at some point before his 21st birthday.
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