Through six weeks, I was having my best picks seasons ever, including a 63 percent record against the spread. Then came the week from hell last week. I managed to go 1-10 – yes, 1-10 – against the spread.
I learned my lesson. Don’t pick Tennessee to upset Alabama.
Last week ATS: 1-10
Miami at Virginia Tech (-6)
With both teams playing on a short week, the Hokies should bounce back from their disappointing loss at Syracuse last week and hand the ‘Canes their third straight defeat.
It’s hard to imagine this one will be as lopsided as ‘Bama’s recent games, but turnover-prone QB Trevor Knight going against the Tide’s touchdown-scoring defense could be a bad combination for the Aggies.
Auburn’s offense has been playing better under QB Sean White, but it needs RB Kerryon Johnson to be available and healthy. Carl Lawson and the Tigers’ defensive front should be able to slow down the Razorbacks’ productive offense.
Penn State has the intangibles going for it – at home, at night, coming off a bye week against an Ohio State team that went to overtime in Madison last week. But the Buckeyes are still far more talented at nearly every position.
This is where we find out just how much LSU’s offense has changed under Ed Orgeron. My guess is the Tigers will come back to earth a bit, but their defense will also be able to fluster Rebels QB Chad Kelly.
ECU may be 2-4, but one thing it can definitely do is throw the ball. Tommy Tuberville’s defense is not particularly adept at stopping it, and the offense thus far has not looked capable of winning a shootout.