I had an OK Week 4, going 6-5 against the spread, but I’m still a shaky 21-23 against the number. The good: picking Syracuse to upset UConn. The bad: picking Michigan State to handle Wisconsin. The ugly: picking Penn State to keep it kinda close against Michigan. Here are this week’s guesses.
Getty ImagesDon Juan Moore
Stanford at Washington (-3.5)
Washington 23, Stanford 17: The Cardinal's banged up and will be playing without their starting CBs against a very good young QB in Jake Browning. Also, I think the Huskies' DBs can do a similar job to how K-State kept Christian McCaffrey from running wild.
Getty ImagesOtto Greule Jr
Texas at Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Oklahoma State 35, Texas 30: The Horns have been very good at getting pressure and OSU has been the worst Big 12 team at allowing it, but I’m a little skeptical about how the young Horns handle this road environment after stumbling at Cal.
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Miami (-7) at Georgia Tech
Miami 28, Georgia Tech 17: The young Canes D has had an extra week to prep for the Tech option attack, and this is a group that responded very well to the tricky Appalachian State offense on the road earlier this season.
Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5)
Michigan 24, Wisconsin 10: As well as young Badgers QB Alex Hornibrook has played, Don Brown’s Wolverine D is playing at a different level, leading the nation in TFLs and is tied for No. 1 in sacks.
North Carolina (+11) at Florida State
FSU 35, UNC 34: I like Mitch Trubisky a lot and FSU’s D is dead last in the ACC in most yards per play allowed (6.78), but I just can’t pick against the Noles at home in the ACC unless it'd be Clemson and Deshaun Watson.
Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia
Tennessee 23, Georgia 14: Butch Jones’ squad is coming off a huge emotional win over Florida, but UT is still very banged up on D. The Vols do have Derek Barnett and some good talent on the D-line, though, and I think that will give a very suspect Dawgs OL (12th in the SEC in sacks allowed) lots of issues. Also, the Vols' running game should be able to take advantage of the shaky UGA front seven.
Getty ImagesMichael Chang
Oklahoma at TCU (+3.5)
Oklahoma 30, TCU 28: I’m really tempted to pick the Horned Frogs, but I just have a feeling Baker Mayfield won’t let the Sooners lose this one.
Louisville at Clemson (+2)
Clemson 31, Louisville 24: Yeah, I know the Tigers' offense hasn’t been anywhere near as spectacular as it was expected to be. I think Deshaun Watson and Co. respond here. Remember how brilliantly Watson played on the biggest stage against a fierce Bama D last winter? Can the young Tigers defense derail the fantastic Lamar Jackson? I think they have enough athleticism to slow him down enough.
Getty ImagesKevin C. Cox
Arizona State (+10) at USC
USC 27, ASU 23: Young Sam Darnold was impressive in a tough spot to make his first start at Utah. ASU can be ultra aggressive on D, but I feel like he will handle it well and the Trojans will show more grit this week.
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsKirby Lee
Navy (+7.5) at Air Force
Air Force 20, Navy 17: The Falcons are No. 21 in the nation in total defense and the home team, so I’ll go Air Force.
Getty ImagesJustin Edmonds
Upset Special: Purdue (+10.5) at Maryland
Purdue 30, Maryland 28: Honestly, none of the other games felt right, but the Boilers' O-line has played pretty well, not allowing pressure. If they can avoid turning it over too much, I feel like they have a shot at a rare conference win for Darrell Hazell.