WhatIfSports Super Bowl LI prediction: Patriots capture fifth Lombardi Trophy

WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.

Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and “what if” scenarios can be simulated.

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Super Bowl LI: New England vs. Atlanta

Two of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses will do battle in Super Bowl LI.

Led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan, the Falcons are fresh off a dismantling of the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship. With Julio Jones back in the fold, Ryan is rolling at the right time and is putting together arguably the most efficient playoff performance by a quarterback the league has ever seen.

This may be Ryan’s first Super Bowl appearance, but it will mark the seventh time Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have reached the big game. The Patriots defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers behind their high-flying offense in the AFC Championship to advance.

Both the Falcons and Patriots have put up big numbers this postseason. Atlanta is averaging 40 points through two games, including a 44-point effort against the Packers. The Patriots aren’t too far behind with an average of 35 points per game. However, history suggests that it’s unlikely both teams will light up the scoreboard on Super Bowl Sunday. Only twice in 50 Super Bowls have both of the game’s participants scored 30 or more points. The first occasion was Super Bowl XIII, when the Steelers held off the rallying Cowboys for a 35-31 win. The second game occurred in 2013, with the Ravens defeating the 49ers 34-31 in Super Bowl XLVII.

Which team will emerge victorious in Super Bowl LI? Our NFL simulation engine has the defenses keeping this one in check, with the Patriots winning by an average score of 25-24 and coming out on top 55.3 percent of the time.

Super Bowl LI Prediction: New England vs. Atlanta
Matchup Win % Avg. Score
New England Patriots 55.3 25 Box Score
vs. Atlanta Falcons 44.7 24 Simulate Game

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