WhatIfSports NFL Week 5 predictions: Bengals keep rolling against Seahawks
Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2015 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 4 in Review
Week 4 was a “prove it” week for multiple teams, and most passed the test. The undefeated Atlanta Falcons went up against the Houston Texans in our Game of the Week, and as predicted, they continued their hot start to the season with a big win. Our Lock of the Week was the Colts winning against the Jags, and even without Andrew Luck, Indy pulled it off. For the week, our NFL simulation engine finished 9-6 and 4-4 against the spread.
Nailed It: The NFL simulation engine had no problems with the Denver-Minnesota game. The engine predicted the Broncos would win by an average score of 27-20. The actual final score? Broncos 23, Vikings 20.
Wide Right: It’s fitting that the Buffalo Bills show up here at least once, right? The NFL simulation engine predicted the Bills would beat the Giants by an average score of 26-20 and win 64.4 percent of the time, but the Giants took care of business and upset the Bills 24-10 instead.
Week 5 Game to Watch
Seattle at Cincinnati: The undefeated Bengals will play host to the reigning NFC champs on Sunday, and this may be the closest game the NFL simulation engine will predict all year long. The Bengals are predicted to win 51.5 percent of the time by an average score of 22-21. It doesn’t get much closer than that.
Week 5 Upset Pick
Jacksonville (+2.5) at Tampa Bay: It’s not often you’ll see the Jaguars picked as an upset pick on the road, but the Bucs might be in trouble come Sunday. Our NFL simulation engine has the Jags pulling out the victory 50.4 percent of the time with an average score of 24-23.
Fantasy Start – Arian Foster, HOU: Despite a slow start in his return to action in Week 4, the NFL simulation engine is predicting big things for the Texans star back against the Colts. Foster is projected to be the third highest scoring running back with 16.1 fantasy points scored.
Fantasy Sit – C.J. Anderson, DEN: The matchup is right with a game against a leaky Oakland defense, but the projections aren’t favorable for Anderson. The engine has Ronnie Hillman (11.5 fantasy points) doing much more damage than Anderson (6.9) in this one.
Fantasy Add – Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE: After two big games in a row catching the ball, the NFL simulation engine is projecting the rookie to lead Cleveland’s backfield and have a nice outing (9.1 fantasy points) against the Baltimore Ravens.
For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 5 player projections.
NFL Week 5 Predictions
|Matchup||Win %||Avg. Score|
|Washington Redskins||23.5||21||Box Score|
|@ Atlanta Falcons||76.5||30||Simulate Game|
|San Francisco 49ers||26.7||22||Box Score|
|@ New York Giants||73.3||28||Simulate Game|
|St. Louis Rams||30.3||20||Box Score|
|@ Green Bay Packers||69.7||27||Simulate Game|
|Cleveland Browns||35.1||20||Box Score|
|@ Baltimore Ravens||64.9||25||Simulate Game|
|Chicago Bears||35.5||23||Box Score|
|@ Kansas City Chiefs||64.5||27||Simulate Game|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||41.9||25||Box Score|
|@ San Diego Chargers||58.1||27||Simulate Game|
|New Orleans Saints||42.7||23||Box Score|
|@ Philadelphia Eagles||57.3||27||Simulate Game|
|Seattle Seahawks||48.5||21||Box Score|
|@ Cincinnati Bengals||51.5||22||Simulate Game|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||50.4||24||Box Score|
|@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers||49.6||23||Simulate Game|
|Indianapolis Colts||55.6||23||Box Score|
|@ Houston Texans||44.4||21||Simulate Game|
|Buffalo Bills||71.0||25||Box Score|
|@ Tennessee Titans||29.0||18||Simulate Game|
|New England Patriots||74.5||26||Box Score|
|@ Dallas Cowboys||25.5||17||Simulate Game|
|Arizona Cardinals||76.2||31||Box Score|
|@ Detroit Lions||23.8||21||Simulate Game|
|Denver Broncos||77.4||29||Box Score|
|@ Oakland Raiders||22.6||20||Simulate Game|