Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
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Week 12 in Review
With more data and a bigger sample size to work with, it’s no surprise that the NFL simulation engine just had its best week all year. In picking games straight up, we went 12-4, our highest mark of the season. Against the spread were on point as well, as the engine went 7-3-1 (68.2 percent). Our Game to Watch, Lock Pick and Against the Spread Pick were all correct as well.
Nailed It: Bills 28 – Jaguars 21. There was some potential for this game to go either way, but our engine came very close to nailing this one perfectly. We predicted the Bills to win 61.3 percent of the time by an average score of 25-21.
Wide Right: Buccaneers 14 – Seahawks 5. It was hard to see this one coming. The Seahawks had been rolling offensively, but the Bucs put that to a stop. We predicted the Seahawks to win 69.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 24-19.
Giants at Steelers: The Giants are scrapping for a playoff spot, and a tough road test against the Steelers awaits in Week 13. Our engine has Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers protecting home field and winning this one 58.3 of the time by an average score of 26-24.
Week 13 Against the Spread Pick
Redskins (+2.5) over Cardinals: Washington has been playing great football as of late, and the Cardinals have yet to string together impressive victories all season. Even with Washington traveling all the way across the country, our engine has them winning a whopping 60.2 percent of the time and covering easily with an average score of 26-23.
Fantasy Start — Devontae Booker, DEN: It hasn’t been easy for Booker since C.J. Anderson went down with an injury, but the matchup against a Jaguars defense that’s more vulnerable to the run than the pass should work heavily in his favor. Our projections have Booker scoring 15.5 fantasy points, making him a clear RB1.
Fantasy Sit — John Brown, Cardinals: Michael Floyd has bounced back a bit, and JJ Nelson still lurks, making John Brown an unreliable fantasy option the rest of the season. Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson are the only options our projections like starting in Week 13.
Fantasy Add — Tyreek Hill, WR, KC: Hill showed off his explosiveness on Sunday night against the most difficult matchup possible in the Broncos secondary. The Chiefs need a playmaker on the outside with Jeremy Maclin not at 100 percent, and Hill’s game-breaking speed should translate to another successful day in Week 13.