WhatIfSports NFL Week 10 predictions: Cowboys beat Steelers by a field goal

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.

Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.

Week 9 in Review

Our NFL simulation engine performed incredibly well in Week 9. Picking games straight up, our engine went 9-4 (69.2 percent). Even more impressively, we went 8-4 (66.7 percent) against the spread, which made this the best overall week for our projections yet. 

Nailed It: Dolphins 27 – Jets 23. In what many were considering a toss-up sort of game, our engine was right on the money predicting the Dolphins to win 53.6 percent of the time by an average score of 24-23

Wide Right: Colts 31 – Packers 26. The Colts surprised most prognosticators by beating the Packers. We predicted the Pack to win 62.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26-22. 

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season.

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Week 10 Game to Watch

Cowboys at Steelers: Will the Dak Prescott train keep rolling in Pittsburgh? With Ben Roethlisberger not looking like himself last week, our projections have the Cowboys pulling off a big road upset 63.3 percent of the time by an average score of 27-24

Week 10 Against the Spread Pick

Chiefs (+3) over Panthers: The Panthers are starting to string together wins, but they haven’t necessarily been convincing. Even with the Chiefs dealing with injuries, we have Kansas City being healthy enough to stop Carolina’s momentum and stay alive in a competitive AFC West. 

Fantasy Radar

Fantasy Start — Ty Montgomery, GB: Montgomery is still listed as a receiver, but he’s getting carries out of the backfield. That gives him a high floor for fantasy production, especially since he should be off a limited snap count this week against the Titans. Our projections have Montgomery finishing as a top 10 WR in Week 10. 

Fantasy Sit — Kelvin Benjamin, CAR: Benjamin hasn’t been as big of a factor as it appeared he would be at the start of the season, and a matchup with a tough Chiefs defense probably won’t make matters any better. We have Benjamin scoring just 6.9 fantasy points in this matchup.

Fantasy Add — Terrance West, BAL: If someone in your league is frustrated with West’s performance the last few weeks and let him go, you might want to snatch him up. We have West scoring 16.2 fantasy points against a Browns defense that regularly allows big performances to opposing running backs. 

For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 10 player projections.

NFL Week 10 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score
San Francisco 49ers 27.9 22 Box Score
@ Arizona Cardinals 72.1 29 Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns 31.3 22 Box Score
@ Baltimore Ravens 68.7 28 Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks 40.2 24 Box Score
@ New England Patriots 59.8 27 Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals 44.1 22 Box Score
@ New York Giants 55.9 25 Simulate Game
Los Angeles Rams 44.6 21 Box Score
@ New York Jets 55.4 23 Simulate Game
Chicago Bears 46.9 23 Box Score
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 53.1 25 Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings 48.0 22 Box Score
@ Washington Redskins 52.0 23 Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins 48.3 23 Box Score
@ San Diego Chargers 51.7 24 Simulate Game
Denver Broncos 49.1 22 Box Score
@ New Orleans Saints 50.9 23 Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs 53.2 24 Box Score
@ Carolina Panthers 46.8 23 Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers 58.4 24 Box Score
@ Tennessee Titans 41.6 21 Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys 63.3 27 Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 36.7 24 Simulate Game
Atlanta Falcons 66.3 24 Box Score
@ Philadelphia Eagles 33.7 19 Simulate Game
Houston Texans 68.9 27 Box Score
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 31.1 21 Simulate Game

For additional content, view our Week 10 NFL Power RankingsNFL archive or sortable weekly NFL predictions.