WhatIfSports World Series prediction update: is Game 6 a must-win for Cleveland?

WhatIfSports.com's MLB simulation engine would favor the Chicago Cubs if the team is able to force a Game 7.

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Chicago came out on top in a must-win Game 5 to send the World Series back to Cleveland. Can the Cubs win again in Game 6 to force a rubber match on Wednesday night? We turned to WhatIfSports.com’s MLB simulation engine to find out.

Check out the results from 101 World Series simulations, played from Game 6 onward:

Cubs vs. Indians Prediction: Updated Prior to Game 6
Matchup Win % 6 Game % 7 Game %
Cubs 36.6 0.0 36.6
Indians 63.4 39.6 23.8

The most commonly-occurring scenario predicts the Indians to win the World Series tonight, which happened in 39.6 percent of simulations. However, a Chicago title in seven games was nearly as common, taking place 36.6 percent of the time.

Chicago is actually favored in both Game 6 and Game 7 by more than 60 percent. Cleveland’s overall advantage is built primarily on its margin for error. The Indians have two tries to capture a fourth win, while the Cubs must win out. 

In the statistics from the simulations, Jake Arrieta posted a 3.53 ERA and earned the win 55.4 percent of the time in Game 6. Arrieta’s counterpart, Josh Tomlin, was the winning pitcher in just 17.8 percent of his starts, with the Indians turning to the bullpen earlier in games. 

Interested in simulating the game yourself? Try MLB SimMatchup. Or, create your own Dream Team of current and historical players to challenge your favorite club. 

     
Cubs vs. Indians Prediction: Updated Prior to Game 5