WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 12 Predictions

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team’s chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Mississippi State at Alabama

If you’re scoring at home, Mississippi State and Marshall remain the only undefeated teams in the FBS. However, the Thundering Herd’s strength of schedule may come into question considering the combined record of their opponents is…29-59. Ouch.

The Bulldogs are sitting pretty atop the SEC East and College Football Playoff standings. Their average margin of victory this season is nearly 23 points. But even that stat couldn’t deter Vegas from naming Alabama a 6 1/2-point home favorite at open heading into the Week 12 contest also known as WhatIfSports.com’s featured game of the week.

Despite the fact Alabama has won three of its eight games by 10 or fewer points, including an overtime thriller at LSU this past weekend, Nick Saban’s defense is still feared by opposing offensive coordinators.

The Crimson Tide currently rank second in the country in points allowed per game at 13.9, third in rushing yards allowed per game (MSU’s bread and butter) at 89.8 yards allowed per game and 18th against the pass at 185.4 yards allowed per game.

Quarterback Blake Sims has thrown nine touchdowns with no interceptions his last four games and rushed for two more scores. Receiver Amari Cooper has caught five of those touchdown passes and leads the team with 10 trips to the end zone in addition to his 1,215 receiving yards – second-most in the nation. Lead running back, T.J. Yeldon (5.1 YPR) is dealing with a slight ankle sprain suffered in the win over LSU, but Saban said at his press conference he hopes to have him back by the end of the week.

The Bulldogs are 22nd against the rush (127 YAPG), but 123rd in the nation against the pass. This stat is misleading due to that 23-point average margin of victory mentioned earlier and the opposition needing to chuck the ball around the yard in an attempt to rally.

Dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott has tossed five interceptions in his previous four games, but has attempted to make up for those errors with 324 rushing yards on 58 carries (5.6 YPR) with five scores during that same stretch. Running back Josh Robinson still leads the team in rushing with 984 yards and 11 scores sharing the team-lead with Prescott.

We simulated the Tide and Bulldogs 101 times and the computers like Alabama to win 56.4-percent of the time by an average score of 21-20.

College Football Week 12 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Virginia Tech Hokies 36.6 20.0 Boxscore
Duke Blue Devils 63.4 24.2  
Pittsburgh Panthers 45.5 23.9 Boxscore
North Carolina Tar Heels 54.5 25.8  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 48.5 19.6 Boxscore
North Carolina State Wolfpack 51.5 20.9  
Clemson Tigers 64.4 26.5 Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 35.6 22.4  
Florida State Seminoles 72.3 27.5 Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 27.7 21.3  
Nebraska Cornhuskers 38.6 18.4 Boxscore
Wisconsin Badgers 61.4 20.1  
Temple Owls 43.6 19.9 Boxscore
Penn State Nittany Lions 56.4 21.8  
Indiana Hoosiers 45.5 24.5 Boxscore
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 54.5 24.8  
Michigan State Spartans 61.4 23.6 Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins 38.6 18.3  
Iowa Hawkeyes 67.3 26.2 Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 32.7 19.3  
Ohio State Buckeyes 73.8 23.6 Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 26.2 16.1  
Kent State Golden Flashes 20.3 18.2 Boxscore
Bowling Green Falcons 79.7 26.5  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 23.8 19.6 Boxscore
Western Michigan Broncos 76.2 30.5  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 32.2 18.5 Boxscore
Central Michigan Chippewas 67.8 23.6  
Ball State Cardinals 41.6 21.5 Boxscore
Massachusetts Minutemen 58.4 22.9  
Toledo Rockets 42.6 25.6 Boxscore
Northern Illinois Huskies 57.4 26.3  
Akron Zips 58.4 24.9 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 41.6 22.3  
California Golden Bears 39.1 27.2 Boxscore
USC Trojans 60.9 30.5  
Washington Huskies 42.1 23.0 Boxscore
Arizona Wildcats 57.9 25.2  
Utah Utes 46.5 21.5 Boxscore
Stanford Cardinal 53.5 22.3  
Arizona State Sun Devils 66.3 29.7 Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers 33.7 22.5  
South Carolina Gamecocks 42.6 20.5 Boxscore
Florida Gators 57.4 22.2  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 43.6 19.6 Boxscore
Alabama Crimson Tide 56.4 21.1  
Kentucky Wildcats 45.5 21.0 Boxscore
Tennessee Volunteers 54.5 21.9  
Missouri Tigers 48.5 23.6 Boxscore
Texas A&M Aggies 51.5 24.1  
Auburn Tigers 54.5 25.9 Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs 45.5 24.0  
LSU Tigers 55.4 23.3 Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 44.6 19.9  
Northwestern Wildcats 19.3 15.3 Boxscore
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 80.7 26.2  
UNLV Rebels 27.7 18.1 Boxscore
BYU Cougars 72.3 26.1  
Georgia Southern Eagles 50.5 26.7 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 49.5 25.9  
Texas Longhorns 57.4 25.6 Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 42.6 23.1  
Oklahoma Sooners 64.4 29.2 Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 35.6 23.5  
TCU Horned Frogs 88.1 29.9 Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks 11.9 15.1  
Rice Owls 25.7 22.7 Boxscore
Marshall Thundering Herd 74.3 30.8  
Army Black Knights 41.6 26.7 Boxscore
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 58.4 28.2  
North Texas Mean Green 49.5 22.6 Boxscore
UTEP Miners 50.5 23.1  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 62.4 24.0 Boxscore
@ UTSA Roadrunners 37.6 22.1  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 74.3 25.0 Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers 25.7 17.7  
New Mexico Lobos 33.7 23.6 Boxscore
Utah State Aggies 66.3 28.1  
San Diego State Aztecs 35.6 22.8 Boxscore
Boise State Broncos 64.4 27.9  
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 42.1 24.7 Boxscore
San Jose State Spartans 57.9 26.5  
Nevada Wolf Pack 42.6 24.8 Boxscore
Air Force Falcons 57.4 26.8  
Appalachian State Mountaineers 47.5 25.4 Boxscore
Arkansas State Red Wolves 52.5 26.8  
Troy Trojans 48.5 25.0 Boxscore
Idaho Vandals 51.5 25.5  
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 56.4 24.1 Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 43.6 22.1  
Texas State Bobcats 57.9 23.0 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 42.1 21.5  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 33.7 21.9 Boxscore
UCF Knights 66.3 27.2  
East Carolina Pirates 57.4 30.9 Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats 42.6 27.3  
Memphis Tigers 61.9 25.7 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 38.1 20.0  
South Florida Bulls 74.8 25.8 Boxscore
@ SMU Mustangs 25.2 17.2  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.