WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 10 Predictions

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team’s chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Auburn at Ole Miss

It’s time to review what statistically went wrong for Ole Miss in their Week 9 game against LSU and what went right within our simulation engine.

Heading into the game, the Rebels allowed about 97 rush yards per game. The Tigers racked up 264 yards on 55 carries (4.8 YPR) led by freshman tailback Leonard Fournette’s 113 yards. That was a heavy statistical swing in favor of Les Miles’ squad. That was the bad.

But LSU’s four turnovers truly evened the statistical playing field and flipped the simulation script in favor of the Rebels. The problem was Ole Miss could only muster seven first-quarter points off those four extra possessions. Bo Wallace’s first interception thrown in conference play – in the game’s final seconds – was Mississippi’s only turnover of the game and cost them a shot at a last-second field goal to tie.

For more statistical resume info with a larger sample size of data on Ole Miss, be sure to review our Week 9 Game of the Week college football preview.

The Rebels highly touted rush defense – now ranked 18th in the nation at 118 YAPG – better catch a case of sports amnesia as our Week 10 featured matchup has Ole Miss facing Auburn and their 10th-ranked rush offense averaging 281 yards per contest. The Tigers rank 25th in scoring defense at just under 21 points allowed per game. However, where Bo Wallace and company can take advantage of their defensive Achilles’ heel is via the pass, where Auburn ranks 76th at 242 pass yards allowed per game.

On offense, Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall has contributed in the passing and rushing attack through the first nine weeks of the season. He’s completed over 58 percent of his passes for over 1,100 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in the rush-first offense. Marshall is the second-leading rusher on the team with 581 yards and a team-high seven rushing touchdowns. Lead running back, Cameron Artis-Payne ranks 19th in the nation at 118 rush yards per game with six scores to this point.

We simulated the Rebels and Tigers 101 times and the simulation engine likes Auburn to win 59.9 percent of the time by an average score of 22.8-21.7.

College Football Week 10 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Virginia Cavaliers 41.1 19.0 Boxscore
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 58.9 23.1  
Boston College Eagles 42.6 19.2 Boxscore
Virginia Tech Hokies 57.4 21.7  
North Carolina Tar Heels 43.1 24.1 Boxscore
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 56.9 25.3  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 43.6 20.9 Boxscore
Syracuse Orange 56.4 22.9  
Duke Blue Devils 65.8 27.5 Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers 34.2 21.7  
Florida State Seminoles 72.3 27.5 Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals 27.7 19.0  
Illinois Fighting Illini 15.8 18.5 Boxscore
Ohio State Buckeyes 84.2 28.6  
Purdue Boilermakers 28.7 18.1 Boxscore
Nebraska Cornhuskers 71.3 26.5  
Indiana Hoosiers 43.1 22.5 Boxscore
Michigan Wolverines 56.9 24.7  
Northwestern Wildcats 45.5 17.7 Boxscore
Iowa Hawkeyes 54.5 18.9  
Maryland Terrapins 48.0 20.6 Boxscore
Penn State Nittany Lions 52.0 21.2  
Wisconsin Badgers 59.4 22.8 Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 40.6 19.6  
Western Michigan Broncos 70.3 27.4 Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks 29.7 19.5  
Central Michigan Chippewas 73.3 27.7 Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 26.7 19.0  
Stanford Cardinal 32.7 22.4 Boxscore
Oregon Ducks 67.3 27.1  
Utah Utes 43.6 22.5 Boxscore
Arizona State Sun Devils 56.4 25.6  
California Golden Bears 46.5 30.9 Boxscore
Oregon State Beavers 53.5 30.5  
Arizona Wildcats 48.5 25.3 Boxscore
UCLA Bruins 51.5 25.6  
USC Trojans 63.4 30.3 Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars 36.6 27.2  
Washington Huskies 74.3 27.2 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 25.7 18.2  
Arkansas Razorbacks 23.3 18.1 Boxscore
Mississippi State Bulldogs 76.7 27.0  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 25.7 20.7 Boxscore
Texas A&M Aggies 74.3 30.3  
Florida Gators 36.6 20.3 Boxscore
Georgia Bulldogs 63.4 24.3  
Old Dominion Monarchs 43.6 22.1 Boxscore
Vanderbilt Commodores 56.4 24.7  
Tennessee Volunteers 44.6 20.9 Boxscore
South Carolina Gamecocks 55.4 22.7  
Kentucky Wildcats 44.6 21.9 Boxscore
Missouri Tigers 55.4 23.4  
Auburn Tigers 59.9 22.8 Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels 40.1 21.7  
Air Force Falcons 72.3 27.8 Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights 27.7 19.7  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 75.2 32.0 Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen 24.8 20.2  
Kansas Jayhawks 18.8 16.9 Boxscore
Baylor Bears 81.2 32.0  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 38.1 22.9 Boxscore
Kansas State Wildcats 61.9 25.7  
Texas Longhorns 56.4 27.8 Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 43.6 26.0  
TCU Horned Frogs 55.4 27.9 Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 44.6 26.2  
Oklahoma Sooners 67.3 25.2 Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones 32.7 18.6  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 41.1 26.1 Boxscore
UTEP Miners 58.9 27.4  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 41.6 25.4 Boxscore
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 58.4 28.7  
BYU Cougars 58.4 22.5 Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 41.6 19.6  
UAB Blazers 62.4 27.0 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 37.6 23.8  
Rice Owls 68.3 24.9 Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers 31.7 17.7  
Wyoming Cowboys 36.6 23.7 Boxscore
Fresno State Bulldogs 63.4 27.6  
San Diego State Aztecs 48.5 26.0 Boxscore
Nevada Wolf Pack 51.5 27.6  
New Mexico Lobos 53.5 27.9 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 46.5 26.4  
Utah State Aggies 67.3 26.8 Boxscore
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 32.7 21.0  
Colorado State Rams 71.8 32.6 Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans 28.2 25.5  
Troy Trojans 24.8 22.5 Boxscore
Georgia Southern Eagles 75.2 30.0  
Georgia State Panthers 39.6 22.4 Boxscore
Appalachian State Mountaineers 60.4 27.0  
South Alabama Jaguars 44.6 21.9 Boxscore
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 55.4 22.3  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 64.4 26.9 Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals 35.6 21.1  
Texas State Bobcats 72.3 29.2 Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies 27.7 22.0  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 41.6 23.7 Boxscore
Memphis Tigers 58.4 27.4  
Cincinnati Bearcats 59.9 24.8 Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave 40.1 21.5  
Houston Cougars 66.3 26.2 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 33.7 21.1  
East Carolina Pirates 68.8 28.6 Boxscore
@ Temple Owls 31.2 22.3  
UCF Knights 70.3 24.5 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 29.7 19.7  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.