Colin Cowherd’s Pick Six: A half-dozen NBA bets worth looking at

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Colin Cowherd discusses NBA win totals on today’s show. Colin picks 6 NBA win totals including the Lakers, Warriors and Celtics.

COLIN COWHERD: Vegas just came out with it to win totals yesterday. And I could run through the teams, but you don't care about Sacramento either. So I thought, I'm going to pick six teams, give you strong opinions. I got to give the graphics department credit here. Did you ever see the movie "Casino," Sam Rothstein? That's my head on Sam Rothstein's body.

I'm Ace Rothstein. We're calling it Colin's Pick Six. So here we go. All right, let's start with this. Vegas has the Celtics at 57 and 1/2 wins. To me, that's the best bet on the board. Bet the over.

Listen, Boston's not only getting two stars back-- Jason Tatum's better, Jaylen Brown-- they both made big jumps last year. And I think this is a real thing. LeBron is out of the East. They'll play with a renewed sense of confidence. Boston knows now this is their conference.

It's been their conference last couple of years, except LeBron, and he's gone. So they're going to come in here thumping their chest. And you get two stars back to a very well-coached team.

The other thing is Boston now sees themselves with the stars coming back and the development of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as a championship-level team. They want home court advantage in the finals. If they're going to beat the Warriors, they're going to need games 1 and 2 in Boston and game 7 in Boston. This, to me, is the best bet on the board.

I see Boston as a north-of-60-win team, and I've said before, I think they'll win the NBA finals. I don't think they're as good as Golden State. But I think they'll win the NBA finals. So that's my first and strongest play-- take the Celtics over 57 and 1/2 wins.

Next up they've got Golden State 62 and 1/2 wins. What they were last year, like 58 or something? And I think fatigue is setting. In Boogie Cousins isn't around till March. So that's not a factor. We're not even sure if that chemistry's going to work when he gets back.

That will take, you know, six weeks to figure out. And I'll say it again. I mean, Steve Kerr all but admits that the NBA regular season feels like preseason for most teams. And again, we saw his team lose by 40 a couple of times, 30 multiple times, and 20 a half a dozen times last year.

I think the dynasty in Golden State's closer to the end than the middle or the beginning. And 62 and 1/2 wins, that's the kind of win total you get in a regular season when a franchise is trying to prove something. They can win on the road. They've got nothing to prove. I think they're much closer to 57 or 58 wins.

Next up, Houston-- Vegas has him at 54 and 1/2. To me, that's a hold. That's exactly where I think they're at. I think they pull back.

I think Chris Paul now rests off an injury. I don't think they're as good defensively with Carmelo replacing Trevor Ariza. I think Carmelo at this point-- I don't know exactly what he is.

Is he as bad as he was last year with the Thunder? Or do I get a little closer to Carmelo in New York, where he was energized and at least gave you good effort offensively every night? I think 54 and 1/2 wins is where I have that franchise right now.

They got the Lakers at 48 and 1/2. Again, I'm going to hold on this. I never really bought into the 53 wins. The thing is LeBron is not, at this point in his career, motivated or energized by practice. He's not going to play much in the preseason. He's not going to be a great practice player.

LeBron is a-- he's a CEO. He understands I'm not going to waste a lot of time in October, November, December in practice. So I think the Lakers are going to be actually pretty choppy for a couple of months. And then about January, you know, they may have a little trade. They'll find a deficiency.

But I think Rondo's going to take a while to work with LeBron. And Lonzo's going to take awhile. I think the back court's going to be choppy. They don't know exactly what it is-- KCP and Josh Hart. So 48 wins puts them at about a 3 or 4 seed. That's where they're at. And I agree with Vegas.

Oklahoma City-- Vegas has them at 50.5 wins. I'd actually take the over. I think they're going to be a little better than that. They got Melo out. They also have Paul George now psychologically as a settled player. He's going to end his career in Oklahoma City.

I think Westbrook-- when I hear that Westbrook has a new shooting coach, it leads me to believe that he's hearing the noise-- that he's hearing the noise that he's hard to play with. That's why he put his arms around Paul George in the off season and worked out with him. And frankly, you know, we always make excuses for Westbrook. But I like their roster.

I think Steven Adams is the best offensive rebounder in basketball. I think Westbrook's an All Star. And I think Paul George, again, is a great two-way player, top five two-way player in the league. Roberson comes back, who's a very good defensive stopper. So I think Oklahoma City ends up being a nice team that wins 52 or 53 games. And finally, one of my favorite teams in the league is Utah.

Vegas has them at 48 and 1/2. Utah when Rudy Gobert is healthy is a tough out. Now, they're limited because after Joe Engels, I don't think they have-- you know, Donovan Mitchell's not a peer shooter, and Ricky Rubio can't shoot. And Grayson Allen, come playoff time, is not going to be on the floor. He'll be, you know, a liability because he's a kid, and I don't think he's a great defender at the NBA level.

But I do think they're a little bit like the Boston of the West-- well coached, got a young star. Celtics have Jayson Tatum. They have Donovan Mitchell, have an established go-to guy. And I think Boston's better than Utah. But I think they remind me of Utah-- not good enough now to win big games on the road but very, very good at home, with a young star, a great coach.

So I would take the over 48 and 1/2. That is my pick six, Collins Pick Six. I'm Ace Rothstein.