Colin’s dark horse pick for the 2018 NCAA Tournament

Colin Cowherd talks 2018 NCAA Tournament. Find out which teams he thinks have a chance to win it all.

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- Since 1985, let me throw you number. So 1985, 30 plus years, when they expanded to 64 teams a one, two, three, or four seed has made the Final Four 110 times-- every other seed together, 22. OK, of the 30 champions-- let me get this number. Of the 30 number one-- let's see. 20 champs of the 33-- 20 champions of the 33 have been number one seeds. OK, one, two, three, four, five seeds control the tournament.

OK, now, by the way, that-- don't confuse that with saying all number one, and two, and three, and four seeds are great. I'll give you an example. Cincinnati is a two seed.

I don't like them. They can't shoot I saw them play live, saw them play on TV, struggle offensively.

I don't think they win a bunch of games. They'll win a couple, not a bunch. Xavier is a number one seed. I think they're overseeded.

They have one guy who can score. They have a 6' 6'' guard, averages about 20 a game. I saw them get blown out twice by Villanova. Xavier to me is an overseeded team. They're a one seed I don't like.

And Purdue's and number two seed. I liked them early in the year. I think they have athletic issues. They've got a big who can't run. I think Purdue is overseeded.

So I'm not saying I love all the one and the two seeds. I'm saying when we get to the end of it, it's going to be a one, a two, a three, a four, and probably five seeds. They're going to dominate the tournament.

In the last 15 years, here's what we know. To get to the championship game, win or lose, you've got to have an elite coach and one or two NBA guys. The only exception is Kevin Ollie at UConn, and he took Jim Calhoun's momentum and Jim Calhoun's roster. And they did have a great college player, Shabazz Napier

So I'm going to give you my nine teams that can win it. Because don't confuse parity-- there's 40 good teams with 40 teams can win it. No, they can't. You've got to have an elite coach, and you've got to have an NBA guy.

OK, here are my nine teams that could win it all. And I'll put my nine against your nine-- Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Carolina. Now, Virginia may not have a ton of NBA guys, but they have an elite coach. You've got to have an elite coach, or an NBA guy, or both. Those are the nine that can win it.

Now-- now, do I have a dark horse? What would be fun if you don't have one team that's a dark horse? But don't be goofy and pick a 12, an 11, a 10. Go find a five or a six.

I think my dark horse is number six, Florida. They're a six seed. Florida's very interesting-- good coach.

I don't know if he's great-- good coach, tremendous experience back court. They've got an NBA player. I saw him beat Kentucky twice.

I saw him take Duke down to the final shot. I saw him hit, like, I swear to god a hundred three pointers and beat Gonzaga. I saw him beat Cincinnati.

They're a team that if they get down early, have the athletic ability and scoring to catch up. They can have a bad half and still win. They can pressure you athletically.

I mean, if they get down and have to force turnovers, they can pressure you. If they get down and have to score, they can score and hit threes. They are built from the guards up.

If they trail and have a bad half-- and everybody will, including Duke and Villanova-- they have the ability to hit multiple threes quickly and get back into games. They also have the ability defensively. If they get in trouble late and they trail by 6, they will pressure you. So my dark horse to win the tournament is Florida, though I don't have them as one of my nine teams who would win it all. I've got Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Carolina.

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