Colin Cowherd thinks you should listen to what Las Vegas is telling you about the Patriots-Jaguars game

Video Details

Colin Cowherd talks New England Patriots ahead of their AFC Championship matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

- So if you look this weekend, it doesn't make any sense, right? New England is a 9 and 1/2 point favorite over Jacksonville. What? Jacksonville's defense? A 9 and 1/2 point favorite. That's what they'd be favored over, like, the Bills in the regular season.

That line doesn't make any sense. That-- what? I said yesterday, I'm like, I think it's going to be ugly. I think it's going to be competitive. And then I look at the line and it's 9 and 1/2.

And I'm like, OK, time out, Colin. This is one of these moments when you're going crazy. But Vegas always beat you on this. So I make a couple of calls. And I'm like, how can the line be 9 and 1/2? It doesn't make any sense to me. [SIGH]

And the Vegas guy said, well, there's four reasons. Number one-- Jacksonville took a 21-0 and 28 to 7 lead. Pittsburgh was completely flat, apparently looking ahead to the Patriots. Vegas will tell you New England never comes out flat at home in big games.

The second reason is Blake Bortles was five for five in the red zone against Pittsburgh. Do you know who has the number one red zone scoring efficiency defense in the NFL? New England. All it takes is four trips to the red zone, settling for field goals not touchdowns-- that's 12 points.

Number three is the Jags just beat Mike Tomlin. The Jags now face Belichick. Belichick is probably worth two to three points alone.

And finally, the Jags are playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Do you remember the last time New England was away from Foxborough? Was it Miami on Monday Night Football? I can't recall. In the end, that number seems wacky.

But here's something else to throw at you. Vegas knows New England. The last 15 times that New England has been a double-digit favorite, they're 12 and 3. Vegas smells the Patriots' blowout coming. By the way, that's not 12 and 3 winning the games. That's 12 and 3 against the spread.

What did I say to you last week? Two-touchdown favorite over Tennessee. That doesn't make any sense. I was wrong again. Vegas always has a reason. They have no agenda, no bias. They're about getting it right.

When you see that line and 9 and 1/2, it doesn't make any sense. 9 and 1/2? That's like a good team against a bad team in the NFL, isn't it? How often do you see 9 and 1/2, 10 point spreads in the NFL? Let's start with once a week.

That's like if you're playing the Niners before Garoppolo gets there. That's like playing Cleveland, or you're hosting the Jets. 9 and 1/2. Vegas knows. New England is going to win.