Colin won’t fall for Alex Smith again

Colin Cowherd talks Chiefs QB Alex Smith. Find out why he isn't buying Kansas City this early in the NFL season.

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- Alex Smith has done this to us five times, maybe four, maybe six. I'm losing count. When he looks great when the weather's good, September, October, and then when it gets cold, the guy without a great arm, when it's windy, and it's cold, and it's rainy, and it's snowing is average. Every single game he's ever played in the playoffs, except one when he won 30-0 against Brian Hoyer, didn't you think in every one of those games, he's the second-best quarterback on the field?

In his last three playoff games, he's had exactly one touchdown pass in each playoff game. His big playoff win, 30-0, took the opening kickoff for a touchdown did Kansas City against Houston, Brian Hoyer, warm weather, four touchdowns. Here's an interesting stat.

Bill Belichick always says football is about post-Thanksgiving. It's cold, it's wet, it's dreary, it's windy, it is rainy. You've got to be able to play in that weather to win Super Bowls. It doesn't matter how good you are in September and early October.

Here is Alex Smith, 35 degrees and below in his career, 5-7, 60% completion rate, under 200 yards a game, a pathetic 15 touchdowns, 10 picks, and a passer rating of 82. Do you know what his record is when it's 60 or above? His passer rating jumps to 90. His touchdowns and interceptions, 2 to 1 ratio. His record is 40-22.

Am I supposed to believe Alex Smith in the offseason had a bunch of creatinine, and he has totally jacked up now. He can throw a great deep ball. We've seen this multiple times. Certain guys, very good early, those are often guys without the howitzer, without the big arm, without the big frame.

Yet a Joe Flacco can struggle early. But in the playoffs, big strong 6' 5", 245, Joe Flacco has been pretty good. Tom Brady throws a pretty good football in cold weather, is fantastic in December and January.

I've got nothing against Alex Smith. But how much do we know in the NFL for sure? This is the team we love. I've seen Alex Smith play several playoff games late in the season. He always looks like the second-best quarterback on the field.

And if you look at his win-loss record, his completion percentage, his passing yards a game, his passer rating, and his touchdowns in cold weather, which is November, December, and January football, he's below average. Why do we keep getting fooled by stuff? So if this is the team we're absolutely sure is great, you want to make a bet they're not as good December 9th.

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