Rafael Nadal is unbeatable at the French Open, so he’ll easily beat Stan Wawrinka. Right?

Chris Chase @FireChrisChase
Jun 9, 2017 at 4:47p ET

Rafael Nadal blasted young gun Dominic Thiem Friday at the French Open to advance to his 10th final at Roland Garros. There, he'll meet Stan Wawrinka, a three-time Grand Slam champion who outlasted world No. 1 Andy Murray in five thrilling sets, 6-7 (6), 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (3), 6-1. What will happen when the two take to Court Philippe Chatrier on Sunday in Paris? FOX Sports previews the men's final.

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Rafael Nadal: The King of Clay

The 31-year-old Spaniard, will be playing for "La Decima" — his 10th French Open title. He's 78-2 lifetime at Roland Garros with his losses coming to Robin Soderling in 2009 (then, and still, the biggest upset in tennis history) and to Novak Djokovic in 2015. Those losses bookended runs of four- and five-straight titles, respectively. (Nadal withdrew from last year's tournament before a third-round match.)

There are reasons — not excuses, necessarily, but reasons — for each loss. Nadal said in his written-way-too-early autobiography that he was a mess in 2009. His parents' marriage was crumbling, his knees were hurting and he was depressed, suffering from a crisis of body and soul. In retrospect, he thinks he should have skipped that French Open.

In his loss to Djokovic, Nadal was simply outclassed by the better player on that specific day.

He was still injured and in the midst of his worst year as a pro, one in which he didn't win any of the four big clay-court events for the first time in his career and fell to a double-digit ranking for the first time in a decade.

The loss was months in the making and there was almost a palpable sense of relief from Nadal when it was over, like he had to break away from the player he'd been to develop into the player he'd become. It took about two years, but Nadal is back, healthy for the first time in years and playing at a higher level than he has since 2013. He made the Australian Open and Miami finals (where he lost twice to Roger Federer in turn-back-the-clock matches that all of a sudden seem very much of the moment). Then he won three of his four clay-court tune-ups, only losing to Thiem in Rome, and has cruised to the final without dropping a set and only getting pushed past a 6-3 set three times.

Is another title in Paris up next?

With just his Roland Garros titles alone, Nadal would have the fifth-most Slams in history. And it'd put him in double-digits at a single major, remarkable consider no one else has more than seven at an individual Slam (Roger Federer and Pete Sampras both won seven times at Wimbledon).

Nadal's 10th title would also put him into a tie with himself for the most titles at any tournament. This year he added titles No. 10 in both Monte Carlo and Barcelona and can do the same at Roland Garros. Rafa is also clear from the competition in this category: Nobody else has more than eight titles at one tourney. Both those occasions (Guillermo Vilas in Buenos Ares and Federer in Halle) came at much smaller events.

This would also be Nadal's 15th Grand Slam title, moving him past Sampras for the second-most all time and putting him three behind Federer for the all-time lead.

Stan Wawrinka: 30-something

Stan Wawrinka is authoring one of the most successfully bizarre tennis careers in history. And a win on Sunday might be his most amazing accomplishment yet.

Already, Wawrinka is the oldest French Open finalist (32 years, 3 months) in 44 years, the latest in a 30-something awakening for the Swiss player who was always thought of Roger Federer's lesser sidekick.

Marvel at the growth: When he was 28 years old, Wawrinka had played 34 Slams. His best results were two quarterfinals and nine fourth-round appearances. In 23 of those 34 majors, he was out in the first week.

Then he made the semis of the 2013 U.S. Open, Wawrinka stunned Nadal in the 2014 Australian Open final, shocked Djokovic, the the world No. 1 en route to a predestined title at the 2015 French Open title, and then backed it up again with a win in last year's U.S. Open, making him three-for-three in finals, each of which were against all-time greats. Since that first SF appearance four years ago, Wawrinka has made the quarters in 12 of 15 majors and the semifinals in nine of them.

Two of his three Slams have come after turning 30, the same count as Federer, who went over the tennis hill four years before his pal. Since 2015, only Djokovic has won more Slams (six to three). And Stan's three Slams are equal to the combined total of Federer, Nadal and Andy Murray over the same span. EQUAL. COMBINED. Of all the stats thrown around this post, that one might be the most amazing.

Despite the surge and the fact that he has the same number of career Slams as Murray, Wawrinka modestly rejects any idea of a tennis Big Five. (Good, because I reject the idea of a tennis Big Four. But that's for another day.) Stan says, correctly, that the Big Four have been so good at every tournament — especially the Masters 1000s — and he's a late developer who's been great at some Slams. Thus, he's not in the same conversation. That might be true, but a win on Sunday would give him more Slams than Murray (4 to 3). If that happens, the Big Four would either have to expand or contract.

Murray was great for about four hours on Friday. At times, it felt like Wawrinka was playing against a brick wall. The Scotsman got back everything. Shots that were surefire winners not only made it back across the net, but went deep enough to get Murray back in the point. On at least 10 separate occasions, Murray won points that he'd been completely out of at some point earlier in the rally. And if not for a loose mis-hit at the beginning of a fourth-set tiebreak, maybe he'd be playing on Sunday instead of Wawrinka.

Can Stan shock the world again?

After watching Wawrinka outlast Murray, you'd think — why not? Why can't Wawrinka beat Nadal? It was impossible for him to do it three years ago in Melbourne too! It was more impossible to top Djokovic two years ago in this very match! Surely he can do it again.

Wawrinka hit 87 winners against Murray, stunning when you consider what kind of balls Murray was getting back. Those numbers come at a price, and that happened to be 77 unforced errors. But if Wawrinka can keep up a ratio like that and not get down when Nadal wins points he shouldn't, there's no reason he shouldn't be able to put himself in position for a few breaks and to take a set to put some score pressure on Nadal. (Wawrinka's cool played a huge part in his win against Murray. If the roles were reversed and Wawrinka had been the one stealing points from Murray, I don't think the feisty world No. 1 would have responded the same.)

And then, Nadal played and you wonder if Wawrinka is going to be able to grab a set. To be fair, Dominic Thiem, who will hold this trophy multiple times in his career, wasn't ready for the big stage. Nadal wisely played some tennis rope-a-dope, letting the young Austrian knock himself out by blasting forehands or his one-handed backhand, hoping for winners that would never come against the agile Nadal. Either Rafa got to the shots and flipped the point from defense to offense or Thiem uncorked an unforced error.

Nadal leads the career series with Wawrinka by a 15-3 margin, including an easy 6-3, 6-1 win at this year's Monte Carlo Open. He's 9-0 in French Open finals (Wawrinka is also undefeated, though at a more modest 1-0). And he's been on the court 5 hours, 19 minutes less than Wawrinka, 10:01 to 15:20 — a gap bolstered by Warinka's 4:38 five-set win over Murray and Nadal's quick 2-hour, 11-minute straight-set win over Thiem.

Oddsmakers have installed Nadal as a massive favorite, with Wawrinka getting steep 5/1 odds to win.

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Prediction

Wawrinka has shocked us before — three times, in fact. It's easy to forget how stunning each of his three major victories were at the time. Now, we look back at September's U.S. Open final and say, "well, Djokovic was in a slump." In the moment though, it was another monumental upset, the same as we saw Stan do two times before.

Fool me thrice?

I want to say we'll get a classic. I want to say Wawrinka will land an early upper-cut on Nadal who will begin to feel vulnerable, a senstation he's forgotten at the French Open this year. I want to say Wawrinka will blast winner after winner past Nadal and make this a match. I want to say this, not because I don't want Nadal to win, but because it's always more enjoyble to see a great champion tested (á la the Patriots in the Super Bowl).

What I will say is, it ain't happening. This is Rafael Nadal's French Open. It could well be his last or it could be the start of a new streak and a late-career run at Federer. That's all ahead of us though. For now, Nadal in straights; 7-5, 6-4, 6-2.