UFC Fight Night on FS1: MacDonald vs. Saffiedine Crystal Ball predictions
The top of two very deep divisions will be sorted out Saturday night.
Rory MacDonald meets Tarec Saffiedine at UFC Fight Night on FOX Sports 1 in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada and would likely earn a UFC welterweight title shot with a victory. Raphael Assuncao, the would-be bantamweight No. 1 contender, meets Bryan Caraway in a battle of top-notch grapplers.
The card also highlights the two promising stars from TUF Nations: lightweight Chad Laprise and middleweight Elias Theodorou. On the prelims, Daron Cruickshank vs. Anthony Njokuani has Fight of the Night written all over it.
So who will win and who will go home disappointed? Our crystal ball will tell you below.
Rory MacDonald vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Rory MacDonald is a huge betting favorite over Tarec Saffiedine, but this fight could be very close.
If you're into technical striking battles, you're in for a treat Saturday night. MacDonald has some precision boxing and one of the best jabs in MMA. Saffiedine is a razor-sharp Muay Thai specialist with superlative leg kicks. MacDonald will have a six-inch reach advantage, which will certainly be in his favor. But Saffiedine's volume and pressure will work against that.
Standing up, the fight is close to being even. Maybe Saffiedine has a slight advantage. MacDonald's best path to victory might be getting things to the ground, but that is no easy task against Saffiedine, who had the best takedown defense in Strikeforce history. MacDonald does not have an amateur wrestling background. Will he be able to get the Belgian down to the floor? That's a significant key in this fight.
Another thing to look at is cardio. Neither man has real knockout power, so there's a very good chance we'll be going all five rounds. MacDonald has never looked gassed in a fight, but he's never been in a five-round bout. On the other hand, Saffiedine has gone five in his last two fights and looked just as strong in the fifth as the first. This is a very close call. MacDonald is talented at outpointing his opponents and has much more experience against elite fighters. That's enough to give him the nod here.
Prediction: MacDonald by split decision
Raphael Assuncao vs. Bryan Caraway
Raphael Assuncao might have just a little bit more striking for Bryan Caraway.
Caraway has been quoted recently as saying he's the best in the world on the ground. That may be a bit of an overstatement, but he's pretty darn good. Maybe just as good as Assuncao, who is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. That being said, Caraway won't be able to bully Assuncao on the ground like he did against Erik Perez in June. If the fight goes to the canvas, it might end up being a stalemate.
This could be one of those bouts between excellent grapplers that turns into a kickboxing match. And that could be where the balance swings in favor of Assuncao. He is extremely difficult to hit and throws more volume than Caraway. Assuncao's striking looked much improved in his win over Pedro Munhoz in February. Caraway can hold his own standing, but he's at his best mixing things up and changing levels with wrestling. He'll probably have a hard time executing his traditional game plan against Assuncao, who has a win over bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw under his belt.
Prediction: Assuncao by unanimous decision
Chad Laprise vs. Yosdenis Cedeno
Chad Laprise (right) is a straight forward, technical kickboxer, but he could grapple a little bit against Yosdenis Cedeno.
This one has a chance to be a lot of fun. Laprise and Cedeno are both technical strikers with very different styles. Laprise is more of a kickboxer with a good jab and solid leg kicks. It's very simple and nothing really flashy. Cedeno is a karate black belt and utilizes a lot of spinning kicks and unorthodox techniques. Both men have a good amount of power, but Cedeno, who is a touch more athletic, has the advantage in that category.
Laprise likes to stand and bang, but his best path to victory might be to mix in some grappling here and there. Cedeno is still a novice in the ground game, though the Cuban has improved drastically since making the move to the Blackzilians. He is very dangerous on his feet, but if Laprise can make him think about the takedown it will nullify some of his striking confidence. The TUF Nations winner has the technical ability to change levels and make it work.
Prediction: Laprise by unanimous decision
Elias Theodorou vs. Bruno Santos
Elias Theodorou should have fundamental advantages over Bruno Santos.
Theodorou, the middleweight TUF Nations winner, seems to have a pretty big advantage in athleticism and technique here. The Canadian has crisp striking and he hits pretty darn hard, especially with body kicks. Theodorou is also adept in the clinch, which is where Santos will probably take this fight, much to his own likely chagrin. Most of all, Theodorou has good cardio and finishes fights -- six of his nine wins have come by knockout or submission.
Santos is a grinder. He's a short, chiseled Brazilian who you really don't want to be laying on top of you. His victory over Chris Camozzi in July was the personification of his strategy, getting his hands on you and roughing you up. That will be hard to do against Theodorou, who won't be giving up much in the way of strength and has a speed advantage. Santos will likely wade right into Theodorou's best offense and that could make this a short night.
Prediction: Theodorou by first-round knockout
Nordine Taleb vs. Li Jingliang
Nordine Taleb has had some bad luck in his MMA career, but has a chance to get a big win Saturday night.
This one is pretty much a toss up. Taleb and Jingliang are very similar fighters -- well-rounded with no huge discernable strengths over the other. Both even have the same record: 9-2. Taleb trains at Tristar Gym in Montreal, which certainly gives him an advantage in preparation, coaching and game plan. That alone might be enough.
Jingliang, a China native, is pretty solid everywhere, but most of his wins have come by submission. He's tough on the ground in top control, but getting Taleb there could prove a tall order. Taleb is the stronger, more rugged fighter. His wrestling game is a little better. He might end up putting Jingliang on his back. Don't look for anything particularly explosive or exciting in this fight. The path to victory for both is likely methodical.
Prediction: Taleb by split decision
Mitch Gagnon vs. Roman Salazar
Mitch Gagnon has had three different opponents for this bout and should be a huge favorite against UFC newcomer Ramon Salazar.
Salazar is Gagnon's third potential opponent, so let's hope he makes it to the Octagon on Saturday. Gagnon, the Canadian submission specialist, was initially supposed to fight top prospect Aljamain Sterling and then another solid up-and-comer in Rob Font. Both pulled out with injuries. Salazar is taking his bout on less than a week's notice. That's not a great recipe for success for a UFC debut, but you never know.
Gagnon will not make it easy on him. He's one of the more underrated bantamweights in the UFC. Ten of his 11 career wins have come by submission and he's extremely adept at finding chokes, especially from the back. Gagnon's only UFC loss came to Bryan Caraway two years ago. Salazar is pretty solid with good footwork and technical striking. But he won't be able to stay off the ground and that's where Gagnon will dominate.
Prediction: Gagnon by second-round submission
Because violence
Alright, this prelim matchup between Daron Cruickshank and Anthony Njokuani doesn't really make much sense from a rankings perspective, but it's totally understandable why the UFC would make it -- someone will almost surely get knocked out. Both men have extremely technical, powerful striking. They both like to finish fights via head kick. You will not see wrestling or jiu-jitsu in this bout. It'll just be two dudes trying to put each other to sleep. Cruickshank is more experienced and more unorthodox. Look for him to finish in the first round.
On the Paddy wagon
Can Patrick Holohan bring all the good feelings from his first UFC victory in his hometown of Dublin to his bout with newcomer Chris Kelades? That's doubtful, but he also still has a pretty good chance to win. Kelades is coming in on a week's notice after Louis Gaudinot pulled out due to injury and he'll be taking on someone with good footwork standing and a knack for submissions on the ground. An early rear-naked choke for the Irishman is a pretty good bet.
