UFC 185: Anthony Pettis vs. Rafael dos Anjos Crystal Ball Predictions
This week, "UFC Tonight" co-host Kenny Florian takes over the UFC 185 main card portion of our Crystal Ball Predictions. Elias Cepeda wanted to break down the main card, but Kenny won the rights to do so after kicking our writer's ass pretty badly in the gym.
So, read on to see whom the retired former world title challenger and current pound-for-pound hair king is picking to win big in UFC 185's main card, and check out whom Elias is picking from the undercard.
Anthony Pettis (18-2) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7)
Rafael dos Anjos is a phenomenal fighter in his own right, and he doesn't have a whole lot of weaknesses. That said, I have to go with Anthony Pettis.
He's got that extra factor for me where he just has this intuition and ability to read opponents so well. He's similar, in that regard, to a Jon Jones or Conor McGregor.
Pettis has this extra level of awareness that really makes him such a threat. Very few people can show what they truly and really are capable of inside the Octagon.
Pettis is one of those guys who shows what he's made of, how talented he is, every time. He's fearless, and not in a way that makes him vulnerable.
He's always still strategic, still technical and still smart. He just shows that flash of pizzazz when it's needed.
Pettis will be able to hurt dos Anjos and finish him in the third round.
Prediction: Pettis by third-round stoppage
Carla Esparza (11-2) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0)
Florian believes that Carla Esparza's grappling and wrestling put her in another class of fighters at strawweight.
Joanna is a fighter very similar to Rose Namajunas, whom Esparza beat to win the belt. Joanna is a little bit of a sharper striker, and she probably hits harder.
She throws more volume and is more dangerous and more strategic in some ways. It may be a bit more difficult of a fight for Esparza because Joanna has that experience of so many kickboxing fights, and she's got that striking prowess.
Even still, it is a really bad matchup for her in the way that Esparza is a bad matchup for most women. This is simply because of her superior grappling and wrestling.
There are not a lot of women who can wrestle as well as Esparza, so that is a huge advantage for her. She will get the job done by slowly grinding down Joanna.
Prediction: Esparza by fourth-round TKO
Johny Hendricks (16-3) vs. Matt Brown (21-12)
Who will challenge next for the UFC welterweight title? Johny Hendricks (left) or Matt Brown (right)?
Matt Brown is really tough, but the fact that this will be a 15-minute fight, instead of 25, hurts him a little bit. Brown gets stronger as the fight goes on.
It's kind of as if he warms up after the 10th minute.Hendricks will come into this fight in a little better shape, but even if not, 15 minutes is just about right for Hendricks.
It won't be an easy task for Hendricks to win. If Brown can stop the takedown, Hendricks may have a big problem.
Brown has one of the very best clinch games in the sport, period. Either guy is too tough to get finished here, but I have to go with the former champion.
Prediction: Hendricks by decision
Roy Nelson (21-10) vs. Alistair Overeem (38-14)
Kenny says that against 'Big Country,' Alistair Overeem will need to stay on his toes all fight long.
This heavyweight fight isn't so much about either man having a clear advantage, but Overeem's consistency within the UFC, and overall, is problematic for him.
Time and again, we see Overeem start fights well. He's moving his head, getting in and out, but then something happens.
I don't know if it's complacency or laziness, or over-analysis, but he seems to fade a little bit. It also isn't just that he becomes less dangerous, but he also becomes more vulnerable in the process.
You just can't do that against Nelson. You have to be awake for every second against him.
He's going to keep going for the win, all fight long. Nelson should win, and I don't think this fight is going the distance.
Either guy could win. Nelson is going to have to be careful with those knees from Overeem, but I see Nelson getting the knockout.
Prediction: Nelson by KO
Chris Cariaso (17-6) vs. Henry Cejudo (7-0)
This is a great fight. The UFC is giving Cejudo another chance to get down to 125 pounds after he's missed weight in the past.
That's going to be the big question mark. Can Cejudo make the weight, and if he does, can Cejudo fight at that weight competently, with the energy to perform well?
I hope he can make it because he's a true talent, if developed properly. Athletically, he's in the top one percent of fighters in the UFC.
Wrestling-wise, he's an absolute beast, and he's got the hands and the speed to go along. He just needs to get a little more comfortable in the Octagon, but that will come with more fights and experience.
Cariaso is very tough and has improved his wrestling and takedown defense a lot. He's also an excellent striker. He's made huge improvements and is only getting better and better. He was out-matched by the champion Demetrious Johson, much like everyone is, but he could pose some problems for Cejudo.
If Cejudo can't get the takedown, he is going to be in a firefight against Cariaso. Cejudo should get the win, and if he can beat Cariaso, then he is legit. He will get on the radar.
The fight will go to decision because Cariaso is very game and very durable.
I don't think Cejudo's submissions or ground strikes are there yet to get the finish. I don't think his striking is there yet either.
Cejudo's not that super-dangerous guy just yet, but he is an unbelievable competitor, and he knows how to win.
Prediction: Cejudo by decision
UNDERCARD
Ross Pearson (18-8) vs. Sam Stout (21-10)
Ross Pearson (left) can slug it out, but could also have a grappling advantage against Sam Stout.
Both men likely will look to throw hands at the start of this one, and either has the ability to end the fight with punches. But when it comes down to it, Pearson may have more weapons than Stout, and that could serve him well if he has to go to plans B or C.
Stout should have the technical striking advantage, but if Pearson doesn't like the look he's getting on the feet, he should be able to clinch up and take the Canadian down.
From there, Pearson is heavy on top and dangerous with chokes and ground strikes.
Prediction: Pearson by decision
Elias Theodorou (10-0) vs. Roger Navarez (7-1)
These two big middleweights may nullify each other in many areas, including athleticism and grappling. Navarez looked solid and at least persistent in last bout, and rebounded after his first ever career loss in the previous fight.
The charismatic Theodorou is still riding high as an undefeated prospect. If he's tempered that confidence with aggressive skill work since his last fight, in October, he could be the man to pick.
The Canadian may be a tad more explosive, and I like his finishing ability, so I give him a slight edge. Plus, he has a pretty sweet name ...
Prediction: Theodorou by third-round TKO
Daron Cruickshank (16-5) vs. Beneil Dariush (9-1)
This is a sleeper fight to make sure to watch. Cruickshank never got going after an unfortunate eye-poke no-contest ending to his Dec. 12 bout against KJ Noons.
It's a quick turnaround, but if he's ready, he's got the skills to give Dariush a good fight. Cruickshank loves to throw strikes, but he'll want to make sure that his solid wrestling is on point as well, so that he doesn't end up on his back against the dangerous submission technician.
If Dariush can get Cruickshank on his back, I favor him. If Cruickshank can keep the fight standing, however, I have to go with him.
Prediction: Cruickshank by decision
Jared Rosholt (11-2) vs. Josh Copeland (9-1)
Both heavyweights here are coming off tough losses to good Eastern European beasts. Copeland lasted longer in his loss, but also took a lot of damage to be fighting again so soon.
Rosholt will have a wrestling advantage against most fighters in the division, and should here. However, as is always the case with him, he's going to have to either figure out a way to finish the fight after getting it to the ground, or we'll always be at risk for catching that one big, equalizing shot.
Prediction: Rosholt by decision
Sergio Pettis (12-1) vs. Ryan Benoit (7-3)
Younger brother of lightweight champ Anthony Pettis, Sergio (right) gets another chance to shine this weekend.
This fight could end up being an exciting stand-up striking one. The fans certainly would win in that case.
However, Pettis will be best served if he's sharp and ready to battle on the ground as well. Pettis certainly is capable of fighting and winning on the feet, but he probably would have an advantage with submissions on the ground against Benoit.
Prediction: Pettis by third-round submission
Jake Lindsey (9-2) vs. Joseph Duffy (12-1)
Duffy can bang on the feet, but if he can get Lindsey to the ground, he has his best chance to finish the fight. Lindsey has fallen prey to submissions in the UFC before, and likely will have to stay off the ground to get his first win in the promotion.
Germaine de Randamie (4-3) vs. Larissa Pacheco (10-1)
Both women are coming off losses, here. The Dutch Randamie likely will look to strike with the Brazilian Pacheco.
Pacheco is the finisher here, with all her wins coming by way of either submission or KO. She is also much more experienced overall in MMA than Randamie, despite being a decade younger.
That said, this one is anyone's fight.
Prediction: Pacheco by third-round submission
