UFC 181: Hendricks vs. Lawler Crystal Ball Predictions
Very often, highly anticipated and necessary rematches are put off or lost altogether because of time, injury or any other set of unfortunate circumstances. Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler's UFC welterweight title rematch has been put off and put at risk by injuries and time, but will thankfully still take place this Saturday in the main event of UFC 181.
Hendricks will make his Octagon return and defend his title against Lawler -- who has had to win twice more since losing a close decision to Hendricks in their first epic bout. Will Lawler be primed and ready to go after beating Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown, or will Hendricks be healthy and refreshed from his time off and pull away with a second win?
In the UFC 181 co-main event, we'll get another world championship fight, a long time in the making. Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis has not gotten a chance to defend the title he won in August 2013 because of injuries. In his first defense, he'll have as tough an out as there is at 155 pounds in fellow TUF coach Gilbert Melendez.
Melendez is also coming off of a long layoff and is hungry to finally grab UFC gold in this, his second title shot in his last three bouts. Can Pettis pick up where he left off when he shot to the top of the UFC, or will Melendez stop the champion's momentum?
Let's take a look at the UFC 181 card to see which fighters have the best chances at coming out on top in this double world title mega-card.
Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
Their first fight, last March, was simply one of the most competitive and brutal title fights in history. Heading into the rematch, nine months later, the champion will be fresh but perhaps rusty, while the challenger may be sharper, but also with a great deal more mileage on him.
Johny Hendricks has not fought since beating Robbie Lawler via unanimous decision and walking away with the vacant UFC welterweight world championship at UFC 171. The "Ruthless" one, on the other hand, has fought twice more since that war of attrition, for nearly another eight rounds.
Lawler's most recent fight was a very close, and similarly violent, five-round battle against Matt Brown in July. As Lawler has kept the rust off while earning another shot at Hendricks, he's also accumulated more damage to his brain and body with training camps and rough fights.
For his part, Hendricks has been able to get his badly injured biceps (which he injured days before the first Lawler bout and made much worse minutes into the bout) surgically repaired, and healed up. No doubt many other aches and nagging pains have also been able to heal better than Lawler's with his time away from competition.
It will be interesting to see if Hendricks will be able to win again, this time by a wider margin, if he's actually able to fight with two arms, and against a worn Lawler. On the other hand, perhaps the American Top Team challenger will be able to start fast and put it on the champion before he has been able to get acclimated once more to the Octagon.
Lawler has stayed in shape all year, while Hendricks has been on the shelf, putting on weight. However, Hendricks has been able to rest while Lawler has continued to put himself through the grinder.
How each fighter responds to their own, very different, circumstances, will likely determine the winner. We're willing to bet that Hendricks' time off will have served him well, both psychologically and physically.
If he can pressure Lawler against the cage and put him down earlier in the rematch than he did in the first fight, we see Hendricks pulling out another decision win.
Prediction: Johny Hendricks def. Robbie Lawler by unanimous decision.
Anthony Pettis vs. Gilbert Melendez
UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.
For about two years between the falls of 2011 and 2013, Anthony Pettis looked about as good as any lightweight ever has en route to winning the UFC lightweight title with a first-round submission over Benson Henderson at UFC 164. Unfortunately, "Showtime" has not fought since then because of knee injuries.
His challenger, former Strikeforce champ Gilbert Melendez, has not fought in nearly as long. Because of both of their long layoffs, it's impossible to know how well Pettis and Melendez will each fare in their return bout against one another.
Perhaps their respective periods of inactivity will somehow cancel each other out, or maybe one will be much more quick out of the gate. If we had to guess, we'd put our money on the champion starting out faster between the two, if only because that is his modus operandi.
Melendez fell short in a controversially close decision to Benson Henderson for the UFC 155-pound title back in April, 2013, but Pettis starched "Bendo" with body kicks and an arm bar in just minutes, months later. Melendez is well-rounded and resilient, but Pettis loves to come out guns firing.
The champ believes he'll be able to get "El Nino" out of there in the first round. With his striking prowess and power, anything is possible.
However, we'll go ahead and assume that Melendez's time off will have served his older, veteran body well, and that he'll be healthier than he has been in some time, when he fights Pettis. Pettis says he trusts his previously injured legs to do what they always have for him, but if Melendez insists on making the fight a grappling one, he could get the upset.
Pettis' wrestling has improved a lot, over the past couple of years, and he has lightning fast submissions off of his back. However, Melendez is one of the hardest fighters in the sport to submit, and he should hold a sizeable wrestling advantage over the champion.
What that means is that if Melendez is able to at least make Pettis respect him on the feet before getting inside and single-mindedly pursuing the takedown, he could decide where the fight goes, round after round. It's hard to pick against the champ, especially such a prodigiously skilled and talented one like Pettis.
However, the fact that Pettis is coming off of multiple knee injuries, coupled with Melendez's experience, wrestling, make this fight a tempting one to choose the challenger as an upset. It's a tough call to make, but we're going with Melendez via decision.
Prediction: Gilbert Melendez def. Anthony Pettis via split decision.
Travis Browne vs. Brendan Schaub
UFC heavyweight contender Travis Browne.
We love Browne's decision to change up his training and pursue a more technical approach to fight preparation. After having an impressive three-fight win streak snapped by now-interim heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum last April, Browne realized that he was just coasting on his toughness and athleticism at Jackson/Winkeljohn's in New Mexico. Now, Browne says he's learning real precision and technique with Ronda Rousey's head coach Edmond Tarverdyan.
Schaub seems to have similar confidence in the grappling approach he's taken the past couple years training with Ryron and Rener Gracie in Southern California. These two, athletic big men will bring a contrast in strengths (Schaub becoming the better ground fighter, recently, and Browne finding lots of success with his strikes on the feet) to a very important UFC 181 fight.
Schaub is coming off of a loss he believes he deserved to win, against Andrei Arlovski in June. While he may be right, there wasn't much in his performance (other than his conditioning and toughness) that night to lead us to believe he has a great shot at beating Browne -- who has already stopped some of the division's very best.
We're thinking Browne begins to find his stride again this fight, and will be able to keep the fight on the feet and eventually wear Schaub down en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Travis Browne def. Brendan Schaub by unanimous decision.
Todd Duffee vs. Anthony Hamilton
UFC heavyweight Anthony Hamilton [top] with a take down.
Duffee has long been thought of as one of the most dangerous young heavyweights in the world, but his career has been stalled by surprise losses, instability, injuries and health disorders. He's riding a two-fight win streak, currently, but also hasn't fought in nearly two years.
Hamilton, on the other hand, is far less known and heralded, but is also a UFC winner, and the much more active of the two. Duffee can change things in an instant with his striking power, but we have to pick Hamilton by virtue of recent ring experience alone. Since Duffee last fought, Hamliton has fought six times, winning all but once.
Prediction: Anthony Hamliton def. Todd Duffee via unanimous decision.
Tony Ferguson vs. Abel Trujillo
UFC lightweight Abel Trujillo [R] lands a left punch.
These two lightweights are about as good as anyone can be without getting too much attention. For one of them, the recognition part may start to change this Saturday.
Ferguson has won his last three, and nine of his last 10. Trujillo has won two straight, and only lost once in his last nine fights -- to undefeated contender Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Ferguson's wrestling and submission abilities are hard to beat, but we'll go with the hot power hand of Trujillo and pick him to get his third straight stoppage win.
Prediction: Abel Trujillo def. Tony Ferguson by second round TKO.
Urijah Faber vs. Francisco Rivera
Former world champion Urijah Faber.
Is this the start of another Urijah Faber run? The former world champ has had rough luck in recent years over the course of many title fights. Every time it looks like "The California Kid" may have had his last chance at another world title, however, he comes back with impressive wins that put him right back in the title picture. If Faber can get another win Saturday, this one against Francisco Rivera, he will have made it two straight wins since losing to Renan Barao last February.
Of course, should Faber get back into the No. 1 contender spot and his teammate T.J. Dillashaw is still the champ, that may open up a whole other can of worms. For now, however, Rivera is Faber's next step to getting back to gold. We're hearing that Rivera is looking like a beast in the gym, and is eager to get back on track with a win over a legend like Faber. That said, the smart pick is the much more experienced Faber.
Prediction: Urijah Faber wins by choke in the third round over Francisco Rivera.
