The Early Look: Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping II
In less than two weeks' time, contender Michael Bisping jumps from a movie set into the Octagon to replace injured Chris Weidman and fight middleweight champion Luke Rockhold at UFC 199. The grudge bout is a rematch from a 2014 contest that Rockhold won.
On their best days, this fight is interesting, but one has to wonder if Bisping can possibly be at his best on such short notice. Below, Elias Cepeda looks at the matchup through the lens of several important categories and makes a prediction for who he thinks is most likely to walk away with the belt, June 4.
Striking:
Rockhold is the longer, more dangerous striker. His length will be an advantage, so will his good management of range.
Furthermore, Rockhold has serious kicking power, especially his left to the body. With that said, Bisping is capable of surprising anyone in the world with his technical boxing.
If Rockhold's management of distance slips at any time, Bisping may be able to slip inside and connect with punches, if Rockhold's hands are low, as they sometimes are. Bisping's balance, guard and punch speed have improved a great deal over the years, from working with coach Jason Parillo.
Bisping (L) is capable of hurting anyone with his quick punches.
He surprised Anderson Silva with his foot and hand speed, and he mostly keeps his hands in position to defend shots these days. So, while Rockhold's size, power and diverse arsenal give him the advantage in stand-up striking, Bisping is a live dog who can hurt you with speed and volume in his hands.
Grappling:
Michael Bisping is an underrated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner with good ground striking and an active guard off his back. Unfortunately for him, Rockhold has the best jiu-jitsu for a couple divisions.
Rockhold's pressure on top is stifling, his scrambling is nasty and he has some crazy squeeze power. If the fight ends up on the ground, Rockhold has the advantage, as he would against anyone in the world at middleweight.
Bisping is good in the clinch, against the clinch, and has good timing on his shots. With that said, Rockhold will likely be able to keep him off of him when he wants, defend takedowns and get up quickly if he does get taken down.
Conditioning:
If both men were coming into UFC 199 with full training camps, this could be a toss-up category. Bisping keeps a steady pace for all five rounds, and Rockhold seems to also stay consistent as the rounds go on while opponents fade.
The problem, here, for the challenger is that he's trying to jump from shooting a movie for the past couple months into a five-round title bout with just two weeks' training. Even "The Count" concedes that Rockhold will be better conditioned than him in this fight, and so he plans on trying to win quickly.
X-Factors:
When the interviews are done and the cage door closes, how much confidence will Bisping actually be able to have against Rockhold, given that he was beaten by him in 2014? Bisping has incredible self-belief, but it will be tested like never before here.
Not only is he facing a man who submitted him in less than two rounds, previously, but he's also doing it without a real training camp and a rushed weight-cut. On that note...
Bisping may be particularly drained come fight night given how he says he needs to lose over 20 pounds in less than two weeks to make 185lbs. He knows this, and it likely weighs heavily on his mind right now.
Can Rockhold manage distance against an aggressive and desperate Bisping?
If Rockhold has the confidence advantage in this fight, it could help him as he seems to feed off of it. With that said, Bisping doesn't shrink when he's cornered or scared -- he fights harder.
If Bisping can surprise Rockhold at any point and stick around longer than the champ expects, it will be a real test for Luke's focus and confidence.
Prediction:
Bisping's camp says he's improved a lot in recent years, and it certainly seems as though he has. With that said, so has Rockhold.
So, I feel as though we may have seen this fight before, and Rockhold shows us what happens in it. If Bisping had a full training camp, I think he'd stick around long enough to give himself a real chance at winning, but his gutsy decision to fight on short notice likely will leave him struggling to make weight and develop the conditioning to have full confidence and be able to keep his usual pace for five rounds.
You can never count Michael Bisping out, but if I were forced to make a pick, the defending champion is the solid one to go with.
