The 3 biggest betting favorites at UFC 199
The UFC gets the month of June started right with an awesome pay-per-view this weekend from California, currently home to all four of the participants in the card's main and co-main event.
Las Vegas sportsbooks are sure to see plenty of action this weekend as the card features two title fights and a host of other matchups between top-15 opponents. Find out who oddsmakers feel are the four likeliest candidates to take home wins this weekend at UFC 199.
Two weeks ago, we told you that Rockhold opened as a massive betting favorite over short-notice replacement Michael Bisping at UFC 199. It looks like that report didn't encourage bettors to go out and lay down some stacks on the Brit as the middleweight champion has largely held on to his heavy favorite status.
The Westgate sportsbook has Rockhold at -900 while the sportsbooks at Caesar's Palace and the Mirage have Rockhold all the way at -1000. At those same books, Bisping ranges from +600 to +650. Simply put, a bettor would need to put $1000 on Rockhold to win $100, or $100 on Bisping to win $650.
The favor largely stems from the fact that Rockhold proved he was better during their matchup in 2014. Rockhold outstruck Bisping before submitting him pretty easily in the second round of their first fight, then went on to finish Lyoto Machida and Chris Weidman. Against Weidman, he landed a career-high 126 significant strikes and appeared to be the best Rockhold we've in the Octagon.
Bisping is coming off a unanimous decision over Anderson Silva, potentially the biggest win over his career, but the way he lost the first fight, coupled with the fact he accepted this fight on two-week's notice doesn't bode well for Bisping's chance on Saturday night.
Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber face off in the grudge match of all grudge matches Saturday as they attempt to settle a rivalry almost 10 years in the making. Cruz and Faber say they don't hate each other and that it's just dislike and annoyance, but I, for one, don't buy it. I think these guys are going to throw down in a back-and-forth war to determine once and for all who the better 135-pound fighter is.
But oddsmakers don't agree with me. They believe the opposite, actually.
The Westgate has Cruz at -550 while Caesar's Palace has him at -600. And the Mirage has very little faith in Faber (+425), listing Cruz at -750.
I get it. Faber is 37 years old, didn't look phenomenal in his last fight and lost a decision the last time he faced Cruz, 31, who grinded his way to a split decision over then-champion TJ Dillashaw in January after a near two-year layoff. But he's only the only man to ever beat Cruz and emotions will be running high on Saturday.
Sportsbooks are also in consensus with fans on the middleweight matchup between Hector Lombard and Dan Henderson.
Lombard, 38, is an extremely dangerous fighter who is unbeaten in three of his past four. He'll be making his return to the UFC middleweight division after a stint in welterweight, where he most recently fell to Neil Magny in a fight he was winning until he inexplicably and embarrassingly gassed after the opening round.
Henderson, 45, has won just two of his past eight fights and has been finished in four of those losses. So it's no wonder Caesars (-330) and The Westgate (-380) have Lombard favored in this matchup of aging middleweights.
Typically, a bout between two highly ranked opponents means a closely contested fight with title implications on the line.
But despite their proximity in the rankings, oddsmakers view fourth-ranked featherweight Holloway as one of the biggest favorites on the entire card. Caesar's Palace has the Hawaiian at -320 while The Westgate pegs him at -310. Fifth-ranked Lamas is +260 at both those books.
On paper, it's easier to see where oddsmakers are coming from. Holloway (5.49), winner of eight straight, lands more than three more significant strikes per minute than Lamas (2.47), and has successfully defended 68.3 percent of the strikes thrown his way.
Lamas will hold a distinct advantage if he can get the fight to the ground, where he'll be able to show off his elite jiu-jitsu and stout wrestling. That's a pretty big "if," however, because although Lamas completes about two takedowns per fight, Holloway is defending takedowns at an 81 percent clip and has only been forced to the canvas once since 2014.
If Holloway can keep it standing, he'll likely make oddsmakers look very smart on Saturday.
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping goes down Saturday, June 4 and is available exclusively on Pay-Per-View. Stick with UFC on FOX all fight week for news, analysis and exclusive interviews with the stars of the big event.
