Hollywood couldn’t have scripted a more compelling storyline for a fight the main event of the Harley-Davidson Hometown Throwdown, as the challenger, is indeed a hometown hero.
Headlined by the much-anticipated rematch between UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, UFC 164 has a must-see main card, joined by a collection of quality pairings on the preliminary portion of the event.
Overall, the 12-fight collection is brimming with potentially exciting match-ups, and if the main event is anything close to as good as the first time these two 155-pound standouts met, we’re looking at a Fight of the Year contender.
Benson Henderson (19-2) vs. Anthony Pettis (16-2)
Before I lay out who will win and how, it must be said that this is a big bag of win for the fans.
As much as I’m gutted my fellow Canadian T.J. Grant was bumped from his opportunity to fight for a title, we’ve been waiting on this rematch since the second their first encountered ended with “The Showtime Kick,” and now that it’s here, it feels a little like an early Christmas present.
Pettis won the first one in Henderson’s backyard, snatching the WEC lightweight title away from him in the waning minutes of a great fight in Glendale, Arizona. Saturday night, I see Henderson getting his revenge.
Of the two, I think Henderson has developed more, primarily in the aggression department. I know some people will question that assessment and call Henderson a “point fighter,” but he comes forward looking to engage far more than he gets credit for, and I think that becomes the difference here.
I still don’t know that Pettis has shored up his takedown defense to the point that Henderson won’t be able to put him on the ground, and rough him up on the canvas. While “Showtime” is the more explosive, powerful striker of the two, Henderson isn’t going to give him a chance to catch him clean, and the motivation to avenge a loss – one that he has to see played over and over and over again – will spur “Smooth” on to a dominant performance in victory.
Prediction: Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision
Josh Barnett (32-6) vs. Frank Mir (16-7)
This is such an interesting fight because these two veteran heavyweights are equally skills on the ground, and equally confident to venture there in this fight.
I’m picking Barnett, just because I think he has more to prove than Mir.
This is Barnett’s chance to cement his legacy, and put up some wins against name brand competition on the biggest stage in the sport, after spending the last decade fighting everywhere but the UFC.
Dominating the likes of Brett Rogers, Sergeoi Kharitonov, and Nandor Guelmino in Strikeforce is one thing, but posting wins in the UFC what defines the best in the sport, and Barnett wants to be known as one of the best heavyweights in this sport, both now, and into eternity.
Mir just hasn’t looked very good to me over his last few fights, and yes, I’m including his most recent wins in there too. He had little to offer Daniel Cormier and Junior dos Santos in his last two outings, got rocked by Antonio Rodrigio Nogueira before finding a submission win, and just kind of coasted through victories over Roy Nelson ad Mirko Cro Cop before that.
My guess is Mir looks to strike, Barnett closes the distance, and controls the fight on the ground over the course of three rounds. His top game is too good for Mir to sweep and find a finish, and while I don’t think “The Warmaster” will put him away, he’ll still collect the spoils of war when this one is done.
Prediction: Josh Barnett by Unanimous Decision
Chad Mendes (14-1) vs. Clay Guida (30-13)
This one is pretty straightforward for me:
Mendes has looked like a monster of late, knocking out all three opponents he’s faced since losing to Jose Aldo. Guida? Not so much. Personally, I thought he lost his last fight to Hatsu Hioki, and I think he loses here too.
Mendes is going to need to cut off the cage more effectively than Gray Maynard did against Guida, but I believe that over the course of 15 minutes, he’ll do more than enough damage to secure his fourth consecutive win.
Guida is tough to put away, and he’ll move around enough to avoid getting finished, but Mendes is a different caliber athlete than “The Carpenter,” and that will show here.
Prediction: Chad Mendes by Unanimous Decision
Brandon Vera (12-6) vs. Ben Rothwell (32-9)
This is the Sesame Street song of the main card: one of these things is not like the other…
Vera hasn’t fought since losing a short-notice main event pairing against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at light heavyweight last August, and hasn’t fought at heavyweight since losing to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 85 in June 2008. Rothwell, meanwhile, had little to offer Gabriel Gonzaga in January, but gets a reprieve here in front of a partisan Wisconsin crowd.
As much as it feels weird typing this, I’m going with Rothwell.
Here’s the thing: Vera hasn’t looked good in four years. The last time I thought, “That’s a quality performance” was when he beat Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 102. Since then, he’s 1-3 with a no contest, and now he’s moving back up to heavyweight?
Rothwell isn’t great, but he’s got some power in his hands, and this feels like a “Win and Call it Quits” moment waiting to happen to me, and I think “Big Ben” will get his chance to ride off into the sunset on the strength of a victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: Ben Rothwell by TKO, Round 1
Erik Koch (13-2) vs. Dustin Poirier (13-3)
Last winter, this would have been a title eliminator. Now it’s fight to see which of these two young talents remains in the Top 10 of the surprisingly deep and competitive featherweight division.
There are a couple very different reasons why I’m picking Poirier to get his hand raised.
One, he’s looked good since moving to Florida to train at American Top Team, and I expect he’ll look even better this time around. Two, Koch’s loss to Ricardo Lamas back in January feels like it could be one of those “soul crushing defeats” that a guy never really gets over.
It has a “Rich Franklin demoralizing David Loiseau” vibe to it when I watched it back, and as much as I think “New Breed” is a solid talent, I need to see that he’s recovered from the beating he took in Chicago before I feel comfortable picking him against another fringe contender.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier by Submission, Round 2
Gleison Tibau (27-9) vs. Jamie Varner (21-7-1)
I want to start by saying I’m a big fan of Tibau – dude is as horse, and criminally underrated. This is his 20th UFC appearance, and while he’s never been a contender, there aren’t many guys in the “20 Fights Club” and that alone deserves some props.
That said, I’m taking Varner in this one.
I think the former WEC lightweight champion is just a bad match-up for the chiseled Brazilian grappler. Varner has strong wrestling of his own, and his speed and ability to land crisp hands from the outside will frustrate Tibau from start to finish.
Prediction: Jamie Varner by Unanimous Decision
Louis Gaudinot (6-2) vs. Tim Elliott (9-3-1)
Love the flyweights. Love this fight. Picking Elliott.
Gaudinot looked very good earning victory over John Lineker in his UFC debut, but that was back in May 2012, and that was the last time he fought. Although Elliott has been sidelined for a minute as well (December 2012), he hung tough in a debut loss against former title challenger John Dodson, and impressed in a win over Jared Papazian last time out.
I expect this to be a crazy, entertaining, blur of action from the outset, and a Fight of the Night contender.
Prediction: Tim Elliott by Unanimous Decision
Hyun Gyu Lim (11-3-1) vs. Pascal Krauss (11-1)
Krauss is a guy I really like as a middle-of-the-pack prospect right now. He’s relatively young (26), trains with a great team at Roufusport in Milwaukee, and continues to get better each time out.
Lim earned a TKO victory in his UFC debut back in March, but seemed to tire early, and benefitted from facing an equally tired, equally sloppy Marcelo Guimaraes. There is no way that Krauss, fighting at home, representing Duke Roufus & Company, comes in unprepared.
Look for this to be a showcase performance for “Panzer,” whose only loss to date came against another solid prospect, John Hathaway.
Prediction: Pascal Krauss by Submission, Round 2
Kyung Ho Kang (11-6-0) vs. Chico Camus (12-4)
I want to pick Camus because he’s another Roufusport representative, and I think fighting at home against a guy making the trip in from South Korea is a big advantage, but he made too many basic mistakes last time out, and I just can’t bring myself to do it.
Given that Camus made tactical errors on the ground, and Kang has eight of his 11 career wins via submission, I’m going to say the Busan Team M.A.D. representative takes it to the ground, and gets a finish.
Prediction: Kyung Ho Kang by Submission, Round 3
Soa Palelei (18-3) vs. Nikita Krylov (15-2)
I don’t trust Krylov’s record for a minute. Not that I think it has been unjustly inflated, but let’s just say I’m skeptical of the level of competition the 21-year-old Ukrainian heavyweight has faced along the way to earning 15 first-round wins in the span of 13 months.
Of course, Palelei has a win over “I’m Just Here to Collect My Paycheck” Bob Sapp two fights back, so it’s not like “The Hulk” has been facing elite talent either.
That said, Palelei should be a huge step up in competition for (awful nickname alert) “The Al Capone,” and I anticipate the veteran Australian to earn a first-round stoppage win of his own in this one.
Prediction: Soa Palelei by TKO, Round 1
Ryan Couture (6-2) vs. Al Iaquinta (5-2-1)
I’ve watched all of Couture’s professional fights, and I’ve never been that impressed with him. He’s a serviceable fighter that is tough to put away, but I can’t help but wonder if he’d have gotten the opportunities he’s gotten to date if he weren’t the son of UFC legend Randy Couture?
My guess is no. My assumption is we won’t have to ask those questions on the UFC level any more after this one, as I think Iaquinta will take him down and grind him out here.
Even though he’s lost his last two, I still like the former TUF finalist’s upside. He has solid wrestling, decent hands, and comes from a great camp, the Serra-Longo Fight Team, and I think this will be a good starting point to a solid UFC career for him.
Prediction: Al Iaquinta by TKO, Round 2.
Jared Hamman (13-5) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (10-4)
Even though he’s been out of action since losing to Francis Carmont in April 2012, I’m going to take Cedenblad, simply because Jared Hamman gets hit way too much, and is far too willing to get into sloppy brawls for a guy that has been lit up a handful of times in the past.
Prediction: Magnus Cedenblad by TKO, Round 1
Prediction Record
38-18 (27-10 main card)
