With just five matches left to play in the Barclays Premier League we’re now at the stage of the season where fates are being decided, titles are won, safety is assured and the phrase ‘too good to go down’ is tossed about.
An incredible number of clubs are fighting for their Premiership lives this time around and this most unwanted race to the relegation trapdoor will feature the following clubs; Wolves, Bolton, West Ham, Wigan, Burnley and Hull.
To nobody's surprise Portsmouth departed this weekend despite making it to the FA Cup Final.
The conventional wisdom is that 40 points is the make-or-break barrier. However, this season I think 35 points will be enough to assure another jaunt in the top flight of English football.
So just who will join Portsmouth?
Wolves (33 points)
Remaining fixtures: Fulham (a), Blackburn (h), Portsmouth (a), Sunderland (h)
Of all the teams in jeopardy, Wolves have the softest schedule. Mick McCarthy will look at the home matches as opportunities to pick up points, while the trip to a distracted Fulham also represents a chance to get a positive result. Funnily enough, the trip to Pompey will probably be the toughest as Portsmouth no longer have any pressure on them.
Too good to go down? Wolves may not be the most attractive team to watch and I wouldn’t say they are too good to go down but they do epitomize the character and resolve of their manager. They’ll stay up.
Odds on the drop: 20-1
Bolton (32 points)
Remaining fixtures: Chelsea (a), Stoke (a), Portsmouth (h), Tottenham (a), Birmingham (h)
With only two matches left at the Reebok and trips to London where both Chelsea and Spurs are in must win scenarios, the situation is on a knife-edge for the Trotters. Owen Coyle has manufactured big wins against teams around his club, however, they have been unable to generate any other positives.
Too good to go down? Coyle hasn’t exactly set the world alight at the Reebok and if they disappeared from the Premiership, not a tear would be shed. They do, though, have just enough quality to survive.
Odds on the drop: 12-1
West Ham (31 points)
Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (a), Wigan (h), Fulham (a), Man City (h)
With Gianfranco Zola disgusted by the treatment of his owners, David Gold and David Sullivan, there is a cloud hanging over Upton Park. The Wigan match is beyond massive because getting a result at either Liverpool or home to City will be a huge task. With the club's finances in turmoil, should the Hammers go down they might not be back for quite some time.
Too good to go down? In a way, this season reminds me of the previous time they went down despite the efforts of Trevor Brooking, as the current squad is jam packed with talent. Yes, they are too good for the drop and I think they’ll escape but just by the skin of their teeth.
Odds on the drop: 4-1
Wigan (31 points)
Remaining fixtures: Portsmouth (h), Arsenal (h), West Ham (a), Hull (h), Chelsea (a)
The Latics have pulled the rabbit out of the hat twice this season beating Chelsea and Liverpool, so they have it in them to produce the goods. Roberto Martinez hasn’t discovered the secret of consistency but looking at their remaining schedule and you’ll see that they truly control their destiny. Playing Pompey and Hull at the DW Stadium should be the defining factor.
Too good to go down? Much like the Hammers, Wigan has quality in abundance. However, they don’t seem to have the character for the fight. Will they stay up? Probably, but it will go down to the final whistle.
Odds on the drop: 5-1
Burnley (27 points)
Remaining fixtures: Sunderland (a), Liverpool (h), Birmingham (a), Tottenham (h)
Turf Moor was shaken to its foundations earlier in the season when the champions, Manchester United were beaten but it’s been slim pickings for the Clarets since then. With Brian Laws seemingly out of his depth, it’s hard to see where they’ll pick up the points as both remaining home matches are against the ‘big boys.’
Too good to go down? I actually think Burnley is a better footballing team than the likes of Wolves and Bolton but that can’t save them this season. The bookies feel the same way and they are favorites to fall back to the Championship.
Odds on the drop: 1-12
Hull (27 points)
Remaining fixtures: Birmingham (a), Aston Villa (h), Sunderland (h), Wigan (a), Liverpool (h)
That 4-1 hammering by Burnley should be the nail in the coffin for the Tigers, however, this team has shown that they can gut it out. Last year they left it to the last moment to survive and with three home matches at the KC Stadium, I can’t help but feel that they’ll pull off a result or two.
Too good to go down? You look at the squad and see experienced campaigners who have been in this situation before. The table doesn’t lie though and canning Phil Brown when they did wasn’t the brightest move.
Odds on the drop 1-3
The key for all these teams is to keep their bottle. If you can perform to the best of your ability, you will survive because you are too good to go down. If nerves step into play, which they will because of the money at stake, anything can happen.
The bookies say that Burnley and Hull are dead certain to join Portsmouth, I think it’s not that cut and dried yet.
Until then, I’ll see you at the far post.
