Bayern Munich hosts Real Madrid in the first leg of a blockbuster pairing that kicks off the Champions League semifinals.
A couple of weeks ago, you might have found a fair number of people willing to back Bayern to win the showdown and earn a spot in the May 19 final. After all, it will be played in Bayern’s own Alianz Arena in Munich. But now, with the game almost here, there are serious questions about the Bayern’s drop in form, and hard evidence that not even the prospect of a weekend trip to Barcelona will deter Real Madrid from the task at hand.
The odds are against Bayern for a reason: the second leg is in Madrid on April 25. Real has been held at the Bernabeu just once in 2012. So, if the Germans are thinking of hosting the final in style, they must put something together in the first leg that can withstand what Jose Mourinho's bunch will throw at them in the return contest.
That's where questions about Bayern's performance in the past week become relevant. Jupp Heynckes' team lost a showdown for first place in the Bundesliga on Wednesday night, beaten 1-0 at Borussia Dortmund, in a match that ended any realistic hopes they had of reclaiming the Bundesliga title.
That match also brought some of the controversy that always seems to swirl about Bayern. Franz Beckenbauer, the ‘eminence grise’ of German football, called out Arjen Robben in public for his weakly-taken second half penalty kick after being fouled.
“As a coach, I had the rule that any player who is fouled doesn't shoot,” Beckenbauer told the local press. “Maybe that is no longer the rule with Bayern or maybe it has not got through to Holland yet.” Ouch.
Robben had actually made eleven penalties in a row, but all that mattered to ‘Der Kaiser’ — and to Bayern’s fans — was that his latest effort was saved. Dortmund rode out the rest of the match, and Bayern’s title hopes were essentially done.
Dortmund would go on to pad their lead by winning Schalke on Saturday, while Bayern could only draw at home, 0-0 against Mainz. Heynckes rested some of his top guns Saturday — he already knew Dortmund had won before his match kicked off — undoubtedly to save them for Real.
Dortmund contained Bayern’s wide game, if not exactly stifling Franck Ribery and Robben, making it very difficult for them to get into full flow. The tactic? Dortmund spread the midfield so that both of Bayern's winger were always confronting a second marker if they got past the first. At the same time, Dortmund kept things tight in the middle of the box so Mario Gomez had little service to work with. Neither Toni Kroos nor Thomas Muller, could pick up any scraps.
Look for Real Madrid to mimic that approach. Mourinho's teams always playa ‘defense-first style’ in first-leg away matches. Watching them park the bus will be nothing new. Unfortunately for Bayern, Real Madrid also has a lethal attack led by Cristiano Ronaldo, Gonzalo Higuain and Karim Benzema. This three-headed monster could be enough to swing the first leg their way.
Ronaldo has scored goals with sometimes embarrassing ease this season. Less talked about is how Ronaldo has also refined his passing game. Expect him to give Phillip Lahm plenty to think about on the right side of the Bayern defense. Lahm is fast himself, but nowhere near Ronaldo's class. Ronaldo, of course, has the luxury of picking where he fits best as the match develops.
Sergio Ramos is the wild card that could also swing things Madrid’s way. He is crossing the ball as well as ever, with both Higuain and Benzema (they rarely play together but often split matches 60-30) functioning as effective target men. The big Real defender is also a threat on corners and set pieces with his heading prowess.
Neither side will lack motivation. Both are former European champions, and each has to answer to a group of often unrealistic administrators and supporters.
Ever since Beckenbauer's days, Bayern has considered itself the side against which all German clubs must be measured. Without a realistic shot at the league title, the European final has to be pursued as validation for the entire season.
For Real, it's not just about restoring the old glory days — it's all about winning a double at the expense of Barcelona.
Mourinho's team carries a four-point advantage into ‘El Clasico’ Saturday night and cannot lose the top spot in La Liga that night. With no offense to Chelsea, everyone expects Barcelona to be the opponent on May 19 in Munich. Undoubtedly, Mourinho and the Madrid faithful will relish an opportunity to celebrate a La Liga and Champions League double at the expense of their archenemy.
To get there, Real must negotiate a difficult semifinal, but this no longer looks quite as daunting as it did when the pairing was drawn. They have to be considered the favorites.
And Bayern? They must rediscover the slashing attack style that got them this far in their European campaign. If they fail, expect Der Kaiser to once again seize the last word.
