After a poor start left the Mets 5-13 on April 20, New York went 50-38 thereafter, and by July 29 the Mets were four games over .500 at 55-51. However, that's when the bottom dropped out - trades, injuries and some apathy set in as the Mets won just 22 of their final 56 games to wind up 77-85 and finish with a losing record for the third year in a row. Heading into 2012, finances are the main focus with the Mets. The team's payroll, set to drop from $145 million to possibly less than $100 million, is on the docket and drives most of the moves made by general manager Sandy Alderson and his staff. Given how the strong the rest of NL East is, look for the Mets to finish last in the division and be lucky to win 70 games.
Offseason Moves:
Lost via free agency, shortstops Jose Reyes and Luis Hernandez, outfielders Willie Harris, Jason Pridie, Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez, pitchers Chris Capuano, Ryota Igarashi, Dale Thayer, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch and Jason Isringhausen and catcher Ronny Paulino.
The Mets wanted to bring back Reyes, but financial constraints and concerns over his injury history prevent the team from competing with the six-year, $106 million deal he signed with the Marlins. Capuano had a solid season in New York but priced himself out of the Mets' budget and signed a two-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers. Isringhausen held his own out of the bullpen, but the revamping of the team's relief corps left no room for him. Martinez was expected to be a big-time prospect for the Mets, but his inability to stay healthy landed him on the waiver wire and eventually in Houston.
Signed pitchers Garrett Olson, Chuck James and Miguel Batista to minor-league deals.
James and Olson will compete with Daniel Herrera to possibly fill the role of second lefty out of the pen. Batista has filled the role of swingman and should do the same in New York.
Acquired outfielder Andres Torres and pitcher Ramon Ramirez from the Giants for outfielder Angel Pagan.
Pagan posted a poor .262/.322/.372 line in 478 at-bats last season, partially explained by injury issues that limited him to 123 games, and also by a 44-point drop in BABIP. With only one year of team control remaining and amid questions about his attitude, the Mets traded him to San Francisco in December. In return, the team acquired Torres, another center fielder that had one good year but regressed last season. Torres is better defensively than Pagan, but his production fell off last year and he is susceptible to striking out. However, he does offer a good power/speed combination when he is right. The key in the deal for the Mets was Ramirez, who should pitch in the seventh inning.
Signed pitcher Jon Rauch, outfielder Scott Hairston and shortstop Ronny Cedeno to one-year contracts and pitcher Frank Francisco to a two-year contract.
Rauch underwent offseason knee surgery but is reportedly 100 percent now. He should open 2012 setting up Francisco, but he also gives the Mets another option to close games. Francisco's overall numbers were so-so a year ago, but he finished with 17 saves and was very effective in the second half (1.37 ERA, 0.835 WHIP, 24 Ks in 26.1 innings). That effectiveness may have played a big role in the Mets giving him two years, and he is the favorite to fill the gaping hole at the back end of the Mets' bullpen. Hairston played a reserve role for the Mets last season and hit .235 with seven home runs and 24 RBI in 132 at-bats. He'll fill a similar role this season and should see some action against lefties, both in right and center field. Cedeno is nothing special and fits the bill of backup infielder to a T. He could take the starting shortstop job if Ruben Tejada falters, but he'll likely begin in a reserve role and isn't guaranteed to ascend beyond that.
Avoided arbitration with pitchers Manny Acosta (one year, $875,000) and Mike Pelfrey (one year. $5.675 million).
Acosta opened last year in the minors, but he might have been the Mets' most consistent reliever following his June promotion. He averaged close to a strikeout per inning while reducing his walk rate and posting a solid 3.45 ERA despite a 66-point rise in BABIP. The Mets added three late-inning relievers in the offseason, so Acosta might have to fight for a middle relief job in spring despite last season's success. Somehow, Pelfrey, who was horrific last year, got a $1.75 million salary increase. He opened the year as the team's number one starter and finished it as a major question mark. With the arms the Mets have in the minors, he will need to show something this season or be in danger of getting released.
Projected Lineup/Rotation:
Lineup
1. Andres Torres, CF
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Ike Davis, 1B
5. Lucas Duda, RF
6. Jason Bay, LF
7. Josh Thole/Mike Nickeas, C
8. Ruben Tejada, SS
In 2011, the Mets had Jose Reyes leading off and Carlos Beltran in the clean-up spot, with Davis in the five-hole and Pagan hitting second. Even with much adversity, the Mets finished second in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage. However, the lack of clutch hitting resulted in the team leading the league in men left on base (1,257) while also finishing sixth in runs and fourth in strikeouts.
This year, the Mets' lineup is littered with question marks, but it does have a few players with upside. If Murphy can somehow stay healthy, which is big IF, he could hit over .300 with a modicum of power. However, if he proves unable to handle second base, Justin Turner, who had several hot streaks last year, could fill the spot with Murphy playing a Tony Phillips-type role. The Mets scored 718 runs last season; this year, it will be considered a success if they approach that number, even though the fences were moved in and lowered in some spots. To exceed that, too many things will have to go right, which hasn't happened in several years for the Metropolitans.
Rotation
1. Johan Santana
2. R.A. Dickey
3. Jon Niese
4. Dillon Gee
5. Mike Pelfrey
Santana, who underwent surgery in September 2010 to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder, missed nearly the entire 2011 season. He may be ready for Opening Day, but his history makes that somewhat doubtful, and it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy throughout the campaign. If Santana is not ready to start the season, Miguel Batista or Chris Schwinden could open the year in the rotation. Dickey dealt with a variety of ailments last season. His GB/FB ratio dropped slightly last year, which may be a concern given that the Mets have moved the fences in at Citi Field. Niese must be more effective with his change-up to righties, as they blasted him for a .291 BAA. That said, Niese was hurt by a low 69.7 percent strand rate and .349 BABIP, which is evident in his 3.54 FIP compared to his 4.40 ERA. Gee overall had a solid first full season with the Mets, earning a call-up in mid-April before moving into the rotation full-time in early May.
Closer: Frank Francisco
Key Relivers: Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Acosta, Bobby Parnell and Pedro Beato.
In the bullpen, Francisco and Rauch, who are flyball pitchers, should benefit from a move to Citi Field, even though the fences have been brought in. Byrdak, who faced 110 lefties and held them to a .222 average, should be the main lefty in the bullpen. Acosta, based on how well he pitched, deserves a middle relief spot. After that, it's up in the air. Parnell closed at the end of last year but blew 6-of-12 save chances. He may end up fighting with Beato for one spot. Beato wore down late in the year from overuse, but his ability to pitch multiple innings may give him and edge over Parnell. The rest of the group, along with the minor-league invitees, may fight for one or two spots.
Notes of import, fantasy and otherwise:
Madoff and the team's financials
Mets owners agreed to pay $162 million in a settlement with the trustee for Bernard Madoff's fraud victims, lifting a dark cloud of uncertainty that hung over the franchise. The financial difficulties will continue to impact the product on the field, however. GM Sandy Alderson and his staff have been forced to shop at the dollar store and allowed Reyes to walk away without a formal offer, knowing they couldn't meet his price. The Mets are slashing payroll in a never seen before drop, and the rumor is they will go from $148.8 million last year to $92.7 million this season; a record $52.1 million drop. The team reportedly lost $70 million last season and has seen attendance drop three years in a row. With the weakened product on the field, another drop in attendance and further loss of revenue can be expected.
With Reyes, Beltran and Rodriguez having been dealt or not brought back, how long will David Wright be a Met?
The Mets, largely due to No. 1 above, have been forced to clean house and get rid of large contracts. They would undoubtedly unload Jason Bay's remaining $34.5 million owed if they could. In addition, due to Johan Santana's injury and uncertain future, the remaining three years and almost $69 million left on his deal make him almost untradeable. Wright owns the next biggest contract, but trading him would be a tough pill for the Mets to swallow. Several factors complicate the issue with Wright. First, with Reyes gone, Wright is now the unquestioned face of the franchise. Considering the decision to not move Reyes at the trade deadline last season, it seems likely that the team will hold onto him simply to avoid the potential PR nightmare. Second, Wright's production has waned. Whether it's due to him being psyched out from the vast expanse of Citi Field or due to regression, he does not look like the All-Star player he was from 2005-2008. Last is the contract status. The widely-held perception was that Wright could fetch a pile of prospects in a trade based on the idea that he would be under control by his new team for two seasons after 2011. However, that is not the case, as the $16 million club option for 2013 belongs only to the Mets. If the Mets trade Wright during 2012, the acquiring club would control him for just this year with no contract option for 2013. That distinction in the 2013 option makes Wright a one-year rental and likely reduces the package he would bring in return. If Wright does get dealt, the question of his value still has to be determined, as he is making $15 million this year. If he has another year like 2009 or 2011, he probably won't get a long-term deal at that rate. However, if he posts numbers like he did in 2010 or before 2009, both his trade value - and expected contract number - will grow.
Strengths
A switch-hitter with some speed at the top of the order, a contact hitter in the two-hole, and a potentially solid 3-5 in the order with major upside. Additionally, the revamped back end of the bullpen should help the team avoid the 24 blown saves they racked up a year ago.
Weaknesses
Several players are coming off injuries or down seasons, including the ace starter, first and third basemen and left fielder. There are lots of question marks up and down the lineup and rotation, with more questions than answers at this point. Most of the bench and bottom of bullpen are castoffs.
Rising: Ike Davis. Davis got off to a tremendous start last year, hitting .302 with seven home runs and 25 RBI in 36 games before injuring his left ankle in a collision with David Wright on May 10. In addition, he made slightly better contact and cut down his strikeouts mildly. Davis is reportedly fully healthy and looking to add 10 pounds of muscle to his frame. He should benefit from the team's decision to move in the fences in right and right-center as well as in left-center, given his willingness to go the other way.
Falling: Daniel Murphy. Murphy has multi-position eligibility, which helps his value. However, part of his solid batting average was fueled by a 50-plus-point rise in his BABIP. In addition, due to his injuries the past two years while trying to turn a double play, there are strong questions about his ability to field the position. That latter part could cost him at-bats late in games and also end up making him a utility player.
Sleeper: Lucas Duda. Duda, Duda day was one of the few bright spots at Citi Field last year. The last three months of the year Duda made the most of the opportunity opened up by the injury to Ike Davis and the trade of Carlos Beltran. Duda hit all 10 of his home runs and drove in 41 of his 50 runs in that stretch, showing power to center and right field. However, all of his long balls came against righties. The only negative was that Duda suffered a concussion running into the fence in St. Louis on Sept. 21 that cost him the last week of the season. Fortunately his headaches cleared up in late October and he is feeling healthy. Duda, penciled in as the starting right fielder, should bat fifth for the Mets.
Supersleeper: Ruben Tejada - Tejada has the unenviable task of trying to replace Jose Reyes at shortstop. That basically is an impossible job, but Tejada at least has the experience of playing there, filling in while Reyes was hurt last year. Tejada won't provide much power, but he showed improvement at the plate as 2011 wore on, batting .319 after Aug. 1. He could provide a decent batting average and help in the runs scored category.
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