If the postseason started today, the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays would be the top seeds in their respective leagues.
Of course, they want to keep it that way.
The Cardinals’ 55 home wins are the most in the majors this year. The Blue Jays, with 53, are tied for second with the Houston Astros. So, yes, home-field advantage is something to which they aspire.
Yet, in the brief history of Major League Baseball’s current postseason format, finishing with the league’s best record hasn’t proven especially beneficial.
It’s been only three years since MLB introduced the one-game wild-card round, but the evidence is intriguing: Over 26 combined division series games, No. 1 seeds have a losing record — 12-14 — against wild-card winners.
Remember how the one-and-done format was supposed to weaken wild-card teams, forcing them to expend an ace pitcher before the division series? Well, it hasn’t worked out that way. Last year, in fact, the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals went a combined 6-1 against top-seeded opponents in the first round . . . and then met in the World Series.
The one-game wild-card format is great for television — viewers are drawn to the NCAA tournament-style desperation — and eases scheduling headaches. But it’s actually inspired victorious wild-card teams, rather than compromised them.
There are any number of explanations, most of them related to the fact that, in October, relaxed baseball teams tend to be good baseball teams. After winning a tense wild-card game, an underdog can feel as though it is playing with nothing to lose. The greater pressure is on the home team, which probably clinched a postseason berth more than a week prior and idled for three or four days while the opponent was emboldened by an emotional win.
None of that is to suggest the Cardinals or Blue Jays should take immediate steps to finish with the second-best records in their respective leagues. But in the current incarnation of baseball’s postseason, a No. 1 seed is not nearly the prize it was supposed to be.
