WhatIfSports NFL Week 4 predictions: Le'Veon Bell leads Steelers over Chiefs

BY foxsports • September 27, 2016

Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.

To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.

Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.

Week 3 in Review

Our NFL simulation engine got back on track in Week 3, going 10-6 (62.5 percent) on straight up picks and was 8-8 against the spread. Although there were some close calls, our "Lock Pick" of Miami over Cleveland was correct, as was our "Upset Pick" of the Raiders (+1.5) over the Titans.

Nailed It: Colts 26 - Chargers 22. Sometimes it's scary how accurate our simulation engine is. We predicted the Colts to win this game 62.7 percent of the time by an average score of 26-22. That ended up being exactly right. 

Wide Right: Eagles 34 - Steelers 3. We can't win 'em all, though. Carson Wentz continued his magical rookie run by leading the Eagles to a massive upset. We predicted the Steelers to win 73.9 percent of the time. 

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season.

Week 4 Game to Watch

Chiefs at Steelers: The Chiefs are coming off a convincing win over the Jets where they intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick six times, while the Steelers are looking to bounce back from their loss to the Eagles. Jamaal Charles may make his debut for the Chiefs, while Le'Veon Bell will return from suspension for the Steelers. We have the Steelers protecting home field in this one, winning 52.7 percent of the time by an average score of 24-23.

Week 4 Upset Pick

Broncos (-3) cover against Buccaneers: After having four upset picks last week (and three of those being correct), the engine doesn't have any upsets picked for Week 4. Instead, we'll pick a team that's projected to cover the spread. We'll take the Broncos (-3) against the Bucs this week, as the Broncos are projected to cover 64.5 percent of the time. 

Fantasy Radar

Fantasy Start -- Matt Jones, WAS: He's been a borderline Flex play through three weeks this year, but a juicy matchup against the Browns defense should mean big things for Jones in this one. We have him projected as the eighth highest scoring running back in Week 4. 

Fantasy Sit -- Tevin Coleman, ATL: Coleman is coming off a three touchdown performance against the Saints, but our projections aren't too optimistic about his chances against a tough Carolina run defense. We have Coleman scoring a modest 6.8 points this week.

Fantasy Add -- Jordan Howard, CHI: The Bears rookie should be taking over lead-back duties with Jeremy Langford sidelined, and our projections have the versatile runner scoring 13.5 points in his first week as the starter.

For more fantasy football tips, view our Week 4 player projections.

NFL Week 4 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score
Cleveland Browns 24.2 19 Box Score
@ Washington Redskins 75.8 28 Simulate Game
Buffalo Bills 24.6 16 Box Score
@ New England Patriots 75.4 25 Simulate Game
New York Giants 31.2 18 Box Score
@ Minnesota Vikings 68.8 25 Simulate Game
Tennessee Titans 34.1 20 Box Score
@ Houston Texans 65.9 25 Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins 36.2 21 Box Score
@ Cincinnati Bengals 63.8 26 Simulate Game
Los Angeles Rams 37.8 21 Box Score
@ Arizona Cardinals 62.2 26 Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders 41.4 19 Box Score
@ Baltimore Ravens 58.6 21 Simulate Game
Kansas City Chiefs 47.3 23 Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 52.7 24 Simulate Game
New Orleans Saints 48.3 27 Box Score
@ San Diego Chargers 51.7 28 Simulate Game
Detroit Lions 55.4 26 Box Score
@ Chicago Bears 44.6 23 Simulate Game
Carolina Panthers 55.9 23 Box Score
@ Atlanta Falcons 44.1 21 Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts 58.0 27 Box Score
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 42.0 24 Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys 59.9 24 Box Score
@ San Francisco 49ers 40.1 22 Simulate Game
Seattle Seahawks 66.7 26 Box Score
@ New York Jets 33.3 21 Simulate Game
Denver Broncos 77.2 25 Box Score
@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.8 16 Simulate Game

For additional content, view our Week 4 NFL Power RankingsNFL archive or sortable weekly NFL predictions.

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