Washington Huskies

WhatIfSports college football Week 11 predictions: Washington remains undefeated vs. USC

Published Dec. 24, 2016 7:47 p.m. ET

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 10 in Review

Game of the Week may as well be called Lock of the Week. Our simulating computer is now 9-1 after Ohio State won the GotW. Even our struggling Upset of the Week was a winner last week, as Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph passed all over Kansas State.

Nailed It: Indiana 33 - Rutgers 27

After trailing by 11 points in the third quarter, the Hoosiers rallied behind Devine Redding. He scored one rushing TD and one receiving TD as Indiana defeated Rutgers by six points. We predicted IU to win 55.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.6-27.3.

Wide Right: Mississippi State 35 - Texas A&M 28

The Aggies lost their first game of the season as the Bulldogs stunned A&M. Both Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams tallied over 100 rushing yards and at least one TD on the ground. We predicted Texas A&M to win 62.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-25.5.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 11 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups (+1)

No. 25 Baylor at No. 9 Oklahoma

Every Top 25 team is playing this week, but only one game involves two ranked teams. The Sooners could have given up after losing two of their first three games, but they didn't. Instead, they chose to wipe the slate clean as they entered conference play. Now, the Sooners are winners of six straight games and currently lead the Big 12. Last week, without Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, Baker Mayfield put the team on his shoulders. He threw for 328 yards and four TDs. Mayfield has thrown at least four touchdowns in four consecutive games. Baylor has the difficult task of shaking off back-to-back losses to Texas and TCU. The Bears' season isn't over yet, though. They sit fourth in the Big 12, but still have games against two teams ahead of them in the standings: Oklahoma and West Virginia. Baylor already owns a win over Oklahoma State, currently ranked second in the conference. It is still possible for the Bears to win the Big 12 title. However, one more loss will dash all hopes. When our computer simulated the matchup, OU won 57.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-27.7.

USC at No. 4 Washington

We're deviating from the normal "two ranked teams" format on this one. The Washington Huskies remain unbeaten and host USC on Saturday night on FOX. With Texas A&M's loss last Saturday, Washington is now one of four undefeated teams left from the Power 5 conferences. This week, the Trojans are on the docket. USC is led by freshman quarterback Sam Dardold and sophomore running back Ronald Jones II. Last week, Jones ran for 171 yards and four TDs against Oregon. He's tallied at least 170 rushing yards in back-to-back games. With Jones carrying the rock last Saturday, Dardold wasn't needed. However, in the two previous matchups, he produced five TD passes apiece. Washington also has a young QB/RB tandem. Sophomores Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin make this Huskies offense move. Gaskin has tallied a rushing touchdown in five straight games. As for Browning, he threw six TD passes last week. He's accomplished that twice in the past four contests. The simulations believe the Huskies will keep a zero in the loss column. Washington wins 55.0 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-26.2.

Week 11 Upset Pick

West Virginia (+2) over Texas

The Mountaineers have only faltered once this season, yet Vegas has them losing to four-loss Texas this week. West Virginia is led by Skyler Howard. The senior quarterback, who's from Texas, has gotten it done on the ground as well as through the air. Howard has registered five rushing touchdowns in the past four games. In WVU's only loss of the season, Howard threw two interceptions. In games where he keeps it to one or none, the Mountaineers win. This season, the Longhorns have only picked off opposing quarterbacks five times. WVU wins 53.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.8-25.5.

College Football Week 11 Predictions
Matchup	Win %	Avg. Score
Pittsburgh Panthers	29.7	22.2	Box Score
@ Clemson Tigers	70.3	28.8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	33.7	23.2	Box Score
@ Louisville Cardinals	66.3	29.9
Boston College Eagles	36.6	22.3	Box Score
@ Florida State Seminoles	63.4	26.0
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	38.1	24.4	Box Score
@ Virginia Tech Hokies	61.9	28.4
North Carolina State Wolfpack	52.5	25.4	Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange	47.5	24.0
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	58.4	30.2	Box Score
@ Virginia Cavaliers	41.6	27.8
North Carolina Tar Heels	61.4	27.8	Box Score
@ Duke Blue Devils	38.6	24.9
Illinois Fighting Illini	26.7	22.0	Box Score
@ Wisconsin Badgers	73.3	30.7
Rutgers Scarlet Knights	38.1	25.1	Box Score
@ Michigan State Spartans	61.9	28.3
Minnesota Golden Gophers	47.5	25.3	Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	52.5	27.1
Michigan Wolverines	57.4	29.5	Box Score
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	42.6	24.2
Penn State Nittany Lions	57.4	28.9	Box Score
@ Indiana Hoosiers	42.6	26.7
Northwestern Wildcats	61.4	28.7	Box Score
@ Purdue Boilermakers	38.6	23.7
Ohio State Buckeyes	64.9	28.6	Box Score
@ Maryland Terrapins	35.1	24.3
Eastern Michigan Eagles	41.6	32.7	Box Score
@ Ball State Cardinals	58.4	34.9
Bowling Green Falcons	41.6	27.8	Box Score
@ Akron Zips	58.4	30.9
Toledo Rockets	54.5	29.5	Box Score
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	45.5	28.0
Miami (OH) RedHawks	57.4	29.2	Box Score
@ Buffalo Bulls	42.6	27.5
Western Michigan Broncos	76.2	33.6	Box Score
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	23.8	24.3
Oregon State Beavers	35.6	26.5	Box Score
@ UCLA Bruins	64.4	29.5
USC Trojans	45.0	26.2	Box Score
@ Washington Huskies	55.0	29.5
California Golden Bears	46.9	33.7	Box Score
@ Washington State Cougars	53.1	35.2
Stanford Cardinal	50.5	29.2	Box Score
@ Oregon Ducks	49.5	29.1
Utah Utes	59.1	28.2	Box Score
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	40.9	26.5
Colorado Buffaloes	59.3	31.7	Box Score
@ Arizona Wildcats	40.7	28.7
Mississippi State Bulldogs	32.7	23.1	Box Score
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	67.3	30.0
Kentucky Wildcats	39.6	27.0	Box Score
@ Tennessee Volunteers	60.4	29.1
Ole Miss Rebels	42.9	27.6	Box Score
@ Texas A&M Aggies	57.1	29.9
South Carolina Gamecocks	49.5	23.6	Box Score
@ Florida Gators	50.5	24.3
Vanderbilt Commodores	53.5	23.1	Box Score
@ Missouri Tigers	46.5	21.9
Auburn Tigers	53.7	27.2	Box Score
@ Georgia Bulldogs	46.3	25.9
LSU Tigers	58.0	26.5	Box Score
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	42.0	24.7
Southern Utah Thunderbirds	5.0	6.2	Box Score
@ BYU Cougars	95.0	47.7
Army West Point Black Knights	22.8	22.4	Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	77.2	31.0
Baylor Bears	42.7	27.7	Box Score
@ Oklahoma Sooners	57.3	29.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders	48.6	31.8	Box Score
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	51.4	32.6
West Virginia Mountaineers	53.5	26.8	Box Score
@ Texas Longhorns	46.5	25.5
Iowa State Cyclones	61.4	26.8	Box Score
@ Kansas Jayhawks	38.6	22.4
UTSA Roadrunners	32.7	26.6	Box Score
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	67.3	33.0
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	39.9	29.1	Box Score
@ Old Dominion Monarchs	60.1	31.9
Rice Owls	42.6	27.5	Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers	57.4	30.4
North Texas Mean Green	44.6	29.5	Box Score
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	55.4	31.9
UTEP Miners	54.5	29.2	Box Score
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	45.5	29.0
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	62.4	31.9	Box Score
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	37.6	28.4
Colorado State Rams	47.5	26.2	Box Score
@ Air Force Falcons	52.5	28.2
New Mexico Lobos	52.3	30.3	Box Score
@ Utah State Aggies	47.7	29.2
Wyoming Cowboys	69.3	30.8	Box Score
@ UNLV Rebels	30.7	25.0
San Diego State Aztecs	69.3	33.2	Box Score
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	30.7	25.5
Boise State Broncos	70.3	33.7	Box Score
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	29.7	26.5
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	43.6	28.1	Box Score
@ Georgia Southern Eagles	56.4	31.2
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	44.6	29.2	Box Score
@ Georgia State Panthers	55.4	31.5
New Mexico State Aggies	45.5	29.7	Box Score
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	54.5	30.5
Appalachian State Mountaineers	45.6	29.8	Box Score
@ Troy Trojans	54.4	31.4
Idaho Vandals	53.5	33.1	Box Score
@ Texas State Bobcats	46.5	31.6
Tulane Green Wave	26.7	22.4	Box Score
@ Houston Cougars	73.3	29.0
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	43.6	29.3	Box Score
@ Navy Midshipmen	56.4	30.6
Cincinnati Bearcats	49.0	28.1	Box Score
@ UCF Knights	51.0	28.5
SMU Mustangs	49.5	26.0	Box Score
@ East Carolina Pirates	50.5	28.9
South Florida Bulls	59.9	31.7	Box Score
@ Memphis Tigers	40.1	28.4