On Sunday, Ervin Santana will finally make his debut for the Minnesota Twins.
This isn't the way anyone drew things up, as Santana was suspended 80 games for using Stanozolol, but with the Twins in the AL Central and wild-card hunt, there's no denying he'll provide a boost to Minnesota's starting rotation. The one negative even if Santana helps Minnesota make the playoffs, due to the suspension he won't be eligible to pitch in the postseason.
So, what can be expected from Santana in the final few months?
Let's look at what Santana has done this year. He recently pitched three times for Triple-A Rochester. The results:
June 20 vs. Louisville: 5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 88 pitches (53 strikes)
June 25 at Pawtucket: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 HR, 1 HBP, 2 BB, 3 K 97 pitches (65 strikes)
June 30 vs. Pawtucket: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K 99 pitches (70 strikes)
If you are curious, the home runs on June 25 were surrendered to Rusney Castillo and Carlos Peguero, both of whom have major-league experience.
"I just had a chance to look at the numbers," Twins manager Paul Molitor told reporters when Minnesota was in Cincinnati earlier in the week. "They kind of jump out at you. He was efficient, obviously effective. Command must have been good; he didn't walk anybody. I think everyone is excited to know we're getting a pitcher of Ervin's caliber back here to join our club over the weekend."
How will Santana perform in Minnesota? Looking at his past five seasons, he had one outlier -- a 5.16 ERA in 2012. His WHIP was still a good 1.270, but he allowed a career-high 2.0 home runs per 9 innings (his career average is 1.2/9 IP).
Santana has had an ERA in the 3s in every other season in the last five years, with four of those better than league average (with an adjustment to ballpark factor), according to baseball-reference.com. Last season with Atlanta, Santana had a 3.95 ERA, which was just a 93 ERA+ (100 being average). In his career, Santanta's ERA+ is 99 -- so expect him to be around league average.
Based on his three minor-league games -- yes, a short sample size -- Santana appears to have his control in form, so expect 3.0 or fewer walks per nine innings, something he has done in six of the last seven years, with 3.1 (again in 2012) the only season he was above 3.0.
Santana averaged 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings last season, which was his second-best mark (8.8 in 2008). The five seasons in between those two saw Santana's strikeout/9 rates at 6.9, 6.8, 7.0, 6.7 and 6.9.
Overall, Santana might not be an ace, but he should be a solid starter with good and possibly above-average stats, including ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Certainly, the Twins finally can't wait to find out.
Follow Dave Heller on Twitter
